With the NFL’s trade deadline approaching, the decisions the Minnesota Vikings are facing seem clear.
At 2-4, they could look at their roster, decide what tradeable assets they have, and deal them to stockpile picks for one of the most loaded draft classes in recent memory. But if the Vikings pick up a win either on Monday against the San Francisco 49ers or the following week against the Green Bay Packers, they could find themselves within striking distance of a playoff spot and forge ahead to salvage the season.
These are the options facing general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah with two weeks before the deadline. But like many things, the Minnesota’s brass loves to live in the margins, and the answer isn’t always black and white. Adofo-Mensah’s tenure with the Vikings has become memeable at times with slogans like “super competitive” and “competitive rebuild.” Still, the next step might be somewhere in the middle, trimming the fat while also staying in the hunt for the seventh seed.
To understand this, we have to remember the Vikings organization’s goal. While some fans are annoyed with the obsession of being in the hunt for a playoff spot, a lot of their decisions come down to the wishes of the people in charge.
Vikings ownership and management have to see the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Kansas City Chiefs and how they were able to rebuild without tanking. While some believe that a Chicago Bears-like teardown has been inevitable dating back to the end of the 2019 season, the Wilfs want to build a perennial winner. However, that has resulted in .500 seasons in the past.
The Vikings gave Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell four-year contracts when they hired them in spring 2022. With a term that amounts to a three-year trial run, NFL front offices don’t like to have “lame duck” personnel entering the final year of their contract, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell can’t afford to tank.
But let’s say the deadline was tomorrow and Adofo-Mensah had to decide what to do with Minnesota’s roster. Would it be more practical to trade every valuable asset the Vikings have and throw away 2024? Or would it be better to identify which pieces have long-term value and not only keep them for a push in 2023 but as a foundation for 2024?
If Adofo-Mensah decides to go Full Bears, that would likely mean the departures of several veterans. Danielle Hunter is Minnesota’s most valuable trade asset, but the demand of a new contract could entice teams to offer less than they should. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell explained that Hunter probably wouldn’t be able to get a first-round pick in return in a deal, which raises the question of whether netting a second-round pick for Hunter would be worth moving on from him.
The same goes for the next tier of players on the roster. Ezra Cleveland is having a career year at left guard, but not many teams are looking for a guard in the middle of the season. Jordan Hicks is also thriving in Brian Flores’ defense. Still, how much is a team willing to give up for a 31-year-old? K.J. Osborn might bring back a Day 3 pick, and Kirk Cousins probably isn’t waiving his no-trade clause to protect a potential free-agent bidding war next spring.
But even if all of this is true, it doesn’t mean that trading them is completely meaningless. Essentially, Adofo-Mensah could begin a series of microtransactions that net assets in the same way an NBA general manager hoards draft picks. None of these deals signal a full-scale teardown, but it gives them ammunition when the opportunity for a bigger deal presents itself.
No NFL team will trade a player for five first-round draft picks like in the NBA. However, the NFL draft is deeper, which means that middle-round picks have value that could tip the scales for a potential trade offer.
A great example was when the Chiefs traded up 17 spots to select Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Nobody knew the player that Mahomes would become, but the Buffalo Bills only received a 2017 third-round pick and a 2018 first-round pick in the deal and still found a way to have value.
The Bills took Tre’Davious White with the 27th-overall pick, and he became an All-Pro cornerback. But they used that third-round pick to trade up in the second round of the 2017 draft to select Zay Jones and used the fifth-round pick in that deal to trade back into the second round for offensive tackle Dion Dawkins.
Buffalo then used the first-rounder received in the 2018 draft to trade up for Tremaine Edmunds while using a 2018 fifth-rounder acquired in the Dawkins trade to acquire cornerback Siran Neal.
None of these deals are the earth-shattering, burn-it-to-the-ground type of moves we’ve seen in other areas. But for the Vikings to pull it off, they need to find a way to build draft capital.
The Vikings still own their rights to their first- and second-round picks, but they gave their third-round pick to the Detroit Lions as part of the T.J. Hockenson trade. The Vikings do have two fourth-round picks, one from Detroit, two fifth-round picks from the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City, and their sixth-round pick to play with. Still, they could use an extra pick or two to put everything together.
If your head hasn’t exploded yet, let’s go back to trade deadline strategy.
Instead of beginning a Madden rebuild, Adofo-Mensah is likely to work around the edges of the roster. If the Vikings aren’t planning on extending Hunter, they could offer him in a trade that could net a Day 2 pick and some change to increase their draft capital. That would also mean the Vikings would need to find Hunter’s replacement. That’s easier said than done, as the previous regime found out.
The Vikings could also still move Cleveland considering they have Dalton Risner as depth. While a shift in the offensive line may not make sense considering their success this year, moving Cleveland for a Day 3 pick (or picks) could bolster their capital at the back end of the draft, making a Day 2 trade-up more of a possibility.
Then there’s the safety position, which has been a logjam since training camp. Their 2022 first-round pick, Lewis Cine, was a healthy scratch for last week’s win over the Bears. However, it might make sense to give him an audition by trading Harrison Smith, who could be in his last season with the team.
Smith wouldn’t fetch a high pick for his services, but even an early Day 3 pick (think fourth round) could provide dividends and allow the Vikings to see what they have behind him.
Many of these moves seem triggering on paper, but it wouldn’t completely tank Minnesota’s chances of earning a playoff spot in 2023. That’s especially true considering they’re just a game behind the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC’s final playoff spot entering Week 7.
Would a complete tank for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye be practical? Perhaps. But the Vikings could have their eye on someone else in one of the most loaded quarterback classes in recent memory. That’s why a trim-the-fat approach is better than a full-scale teardown.
