We are less than two weeks away from the Minnesota Vikings kicking off training camp for the 2023 NFL season. Rookies will report on Sunday, July 23. It’s starting to feel like football again, which means it’s time prepare for training camp battles. One of the best ways to do that is examine the roster and project who might make the team to see where pressure is strongest, or where a position needs players to step up.
Without further ado, let’s dive into my pre-training camp 53-man roster projection:
QuarterBack (3)
Starter(s): Kirk Cousins
Backup(s): Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
Just Missed the Cut: None
Kirk Cousins is the obvious starter at QB, but projecting the Vikings to keep three QBs on the roster is a bit of a break from tradition. They have not kept more than two QBs on the initial 53-man roster since at least the 2015 season.
There is a clear reason for the Vikings to buck that trend this year. This season, the NFL re-implemented a rule that allows teams to designate an emergency third QB for gameday, without that player taking a spot on the 46-man active roster. However, that player needs to be on the 53-man roster to be used in this capacity, and practice squad elevations do not count.
Combine the increased incentive to keep a QB from that rule change with the fact that the Vikings drafted Jaren Hall in the fifth round and need to determine a plan at QB for 2024, and I expect the team to keep three QBs.
Running Back (4)
Starter(s): Alexander Mattison
Backup(s): Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, Kene Nwangwu
Just Missed the Cut: None
In a somewhat surprising decision, the Vikings kept four RBs last year. Without Dalvin Cook, I expect them to do the same this season. They’ve pegged Alexander Mattison as the starter, but Minnesota may go for more of a committee approach to replace Cook, who played 72% of the offensive snaps last year.
The team seems to like Ty Chandler, and McBride was an exciting rusher in college. Even if Kene Nwangwu doesn’t get in the RB rotation, he is a near lock to make the roster because of his kickoff return ability, with three TDs in two seasons. If Nwangwu surprises in camp and looks like a viable RB, that may make Chandler or McBride expendable.
FULLBACK (1)
Starter(s): CJ Ham
Backup(s): None
Just Missed the Cut: Zach Ojile
The Vikings re-committed to CJ Ham this offseason with a two-year contract extension. The fullback and special teams ace is here to stay, and the team seems poised to use more 21 and 12 personnel in 2023. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings liked to keep a fullback on the practice squad every year. Zach Ojile could be that player if O’Connell wants the same with the team’s pivot to heavier personnel.
WIDE RECEIVER (5)
Starter(s): Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn
Backup(s): Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell
Just Missed the Cut: Jalen Reagor, Trishton Jackson, Blake Proehl
Wide receiver is the first position where we begin to see roster pressure start to build. Up until this point, we’ve kept every player the team has on the roster at QB, RB, and FB except for Zach Ojile, a rookie UDFA. The Vikings are going into training camp with 13 WRs under contract, so that is bound to change.
Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL, and rookie first-round pick Jordan Addison is a shoe-in, along with Osborn. Jalen Nailor played well enough in limited action last year that it would be a surprise if the Vikings cut him, but past that it’s an open competition. Jalen Reagor was the punt returner last year, but he performed poorly both in that role and as a WR. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Brandon Powell, who played under Kevin O’Connell with the Los Angeles Rams, was able to supplant him for the punt return job and earn a roster spot.
Keeping just five WRs would leave the team a bit light at the position, but they kept that many last year and seem to be pivoting towards heavier personnel this year. If the Vikings keep more than five players, expect Trishton Jackson and Blake Proehl to be the primary competition for extra spots, although someone from the field could surprise.
Tight END (3)
Starter(s): T.J. Hockenson
Backup(s): Josh Oliver, Nick Muse
Just Missed the Cut: Johnny Mundt
T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver are locks, and Oliver is part of the move to heavier personnel mentioned above. That leaves a competition between second-year Nick Muse, veteran Johnny Mundt, and rookie Ben Sims. Because Oliver is a great blocker and that is Mundt’s biggest strength, I have Muse, who is a bit more well-rounded, making the team over Mundt.
Offensive LIne (10)
Starter(s): Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Neill
Backup(s): Blake Brandel, Oli Udoh, Vederian Lowe, Chris Reed, Austin Schlottmann
Just Missed the Cut: Josh Sokol
This projection is quite boring because these were the 10 offensive linemen the Vikings kept on their initial 53-man roster last season. With Brian O’Neill recovering from injury, it makes sense to keep 10 total linemen. The Vikings failed to make a significant investment in the O-line this offseason, signing only three undrafted players. Josh Sokol is the only other player who was with the team last year, on the practice squad.
INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE (6)
Starter(s): Harrison Phillips, Dean Lowry
Backup(s): Jonathan Bullard, Khyiris Tonga, Jaquelin Roy, Esezi Otomewo
Just Missed the Cut: Ross Blacklock, James Lynch, T.J. Smith
The Vikings’ defense will have a big shakeup with the addition of Brian Flores as DC. On the defensive line, the Vikings will have a mix of three-down linemen in base and two interior defensive linemen in nickel/dime packages, which I expect them to play most of the time. I expect Phillips and Lowry to get the most snaps, with Bullard mixing in at 5t and Tonga mixing in at 0t in three-down fronts.
Behind that, I kept the two recent draft picks, Roy and Otomewo. Ross Blacklock already had to take a pay cut this offseason, so I expect that he is on the fringe. Lynch played exactly as many snaps as Tonga last year, so he could stick around. T.J. Smith played a little by the end of last year, and Junior Aho, an international player from France, is another lineman to keep an eye on.
EDGE RUSHER (5)
Starter(s): Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport
Backup(s): Patrick Jones II, Luiji Vilain, Andre Carter II
Just Missed the Cut: D.J. Wonnum, Curtis Weaver
My projection for edge rushers (or outside linebackers, as the team lists them) might have the biggest surprise cut of camp in DJ Wonnum. Wonnum has a $2.9 million cap hit, so the Vikings would save around $2 million against the cap by cutting him. Wonnum has played over 50% of the snaps in every season of his career, but I’ve never been particularly impressed. This could be another situation like Cameron Dantzler, who played a significant amount in his first three seasons but ended up getting cut when the team brought Flores in.
Danielle Hunter’s contract situation is a major question heading into camp, but at this point I am projecting him to be with the team. As a significant free-agency investment, Marcus Davenport is the clear second starter. Rounding out the depth chart are Vilain, who made the team last year, and Carter, who got a $300,000 guarantee in undrafted free agency.
I liked Curtis Weaver as a prospect, and there’s an outside shot he could perform well enough to make the roster.
LINEBACKER (4)
Starter(s): Brian Asamoah II, Jordan Hicks
Backup(s): William Kwenkeu, Ivan Pace Jr.
Just Missed the Cut: Troy Dye, Troy Reeder
With only two off-ball LB spots in a base 3-4 defense, the Vikings are probably going to be light at LB like they were last year, when they also kept just four players. Asamoah and Hicks seem poised to be the starters, and I am projecting Kwenkeu, who played a decent amount of special teams last year, to rise to a backup role while rookie Pace also earns a spot as a sub pass rusher.
Projecting Troy Dye off the roster is noteworthy, because he played the third-most special teams snaps on the team last year. However, he’s never impressed as an actual LB. Reeder is also noteworthy as a player who was a core special teamer for the Rams and Los Angeles Chargers.
CORNERBACK (4)
Starter(s): Byron Murphy, Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon
Backup(s): Andrew Booth Jr.
Just Missed the Cut: Joejuan Williams, Tay Gowan, Kalon Barnes
Initial 53-man rosters sometimes lead to weird combinations. For example, the Vikings kept only two safeties, Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, in 2020. This projection is similar to that, and I expect the additional help at corner in 2023 might come from outside the current 90-man roster. It’s also notable that I am currently projecting Minnesota to keep 26 players on offense and only 24 on defense. That makes some sense, because I am projecting three of the offensive players (Nwangwu, Powell, and Ham) to be big contributors on special teams. However, you could easily cut an RB or OL to keep another CB.
I’ve kept obvious starter Byron Murphy, and each of the teams’ picks under Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in Evans, Blackmon, and Booth. Evans appears to have the leg up on Booth for the starting outside CB position, and I’m projecting Blackmon as the slot.
Outside of that, it gets dicey. I see Joejuan Williams as the experienced veteran they brought in to teach the system who then gets cut. Kalon Barnes and Tay Gowan were both on the practice squad at the end of last year, while the rest of the players on the current roster seem more like filler. UDFA NaJee Thompson is interesting, as he was primarily a special teamer in college, and converted to CB late. He could make the roster as a special teams ace rather than as a CB, because he is still learning the position.
SAFETY (5)
Starter(s): Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum
Backup(s): Josh Metellus, Lewis Cine, Jay Ward
Just Missed the Cut: Theo Jackson
The Vikings are likely to use a variety of DB packages, and the safety group will play a large part in that. Players who have slot flexibility like Metellus and Jay Ward may also reduce the number of CBs the team will need to keep.
Harrison Smith is a clear starter, and Cam Bynum projects as the deep safety. Metellus has earned a lot of press for his role during OTAs and minicamp, and he’s a core special teamer. Cine, a former first-round pick, will have his work cut out for him to earn a starting role. I expect Ward to stick for his man coverage ability, but he may have to show strong work on special teams to keep Theo Jackson, who was seventh on the team in ST snaps last year, off the roster.
Specialists
Starter(s): Greg Joseph, Ryan Wright, Andrew DePaola
Backup(s): None
Just Missed the Cut: Jack Podlesny
The Vikings have made their intentions to keep Wright and DePaola clear, as they don’t even have any other players on the roster at P or LS. Greg Joseph will have to beat out UDFA Jack Podlesny from Georgia. While Joseph is not a roster lock, I don’t think I can project a rookie to beat him out.
FULL ROSTER PROJECTION
