As the Minnesota Vikings look to dole out extensions to critical members of their team, T.J. Hockenson should be a high priority. One of the most physically gifted players on the team at 25, he has the potential to be a critical component for the next half-decade and become a fixture of the new offensive core.
Hockenson joined the Vikings at the trade deadline as part of a deal where Minnesota sent their 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick to the Detroit Lions. He immediately thrived, becoming Minnesota’s second-most prolific receiver throughout the remainder of the season. In his 10 games with the Vikings, he had 60 receptions on 80 targets for 519 yards and three touchdowns.
Hockenson compiled the second-most receiving yards and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns at his position on the second-most total targets, and his role only looks to become more pronounced in 2023. The Vikings are seeking to build a more balanced offense around megastar Justin Jefferson, and Hockenson and rookie Jordan Addison will pick up the slack.
After an offseason to familiarize himself with the playbook and gain team chemistry, Hockenson will play a greater role during his second year. He’ll likely debut as Minnesota’s second-most-targeted pass catcher as Addison is given time to acclimate to the speed of the NFL. And with the Vikings moving to more looks utilizing 12-personnel while adding a blocking tight end, Hockenson will have every opportunity to roam the middle of the field.
While Hockenson’s contract will not reset any markets, it will likely place him around fourth in average annual value (AAV) on the tight end leaderboard. Despite being less proven or consistent than tight ends like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, Hockenson has demonstrated his capability and has incredible upside within the Vikings system.
Hunter Henry: 3y/$37m
$25M gtd. at signing, $15M signing bonus
Henry signed a three-year, $37 million contract in free agency with the New England Patriots in 2021. While he’s vastly underperformed his expectations in the first two years, this can partially be attributed to the split of attention between Jonnu Smith and himself – and New England’s offensive dysfunction.
Hockenson is three years younger and a much more dynamic threat than Henry, with his best year comprising roughly 1.5x Henry’s best year’s total production. Henry’s contract would serve as the likely minimum Hockenson would receive and works as a guide to set a baseline.
Mark Andrews: 4y/$56m
$37M gtd. at signing, $10M signing bonus
Mark Andrews’ contract may serve as the best guide for what a potential Hockenson contract could look like, with the deal taking Andrews to his age-29 season, with a potential out after the third year. While Andrews may have better box-score stats, the Baltimore Ravens’ passing offense has been run through the tight end group, and Andrews operates in a system tailor-made to his skillset.
Hockenson’s contract numbers will likely fall around a four-to-five-year, roughly $15 million AAV deal. A four-year contract would take Hockenson to his age-30 season and would provide for certainty at the tight end position for the QBOTF, whether it is a newly selected player or Kirk Cousins.
George Kittle: 5y/$75m
$30M gtd. at signing, $18M signing bonus
While Kittle has vastly outmatched Hockenson as a player to this point in their respective careers, it is worth noting that Kittle’s breakout season was at 25. Hockenson will turn 26 this offseason and is now entrenched in the best system he’s played in to date. Hockenson’s absolute ceiling is probably just within Kittle’s playing potential, and this contract is within the highest end that he could acquire unless the Vikings opt to completely reset the tight-end market. Hockenson’s contract should fall somewhere within the middle of these players, likely landing nearer to Andrews’ contract.
Hockenson’s camp will want the Vikings’ management to acknowledge his potential within the offensive system they employ, and the Vikings will want to affirm their commitment to Hockenson without overextending their limited resources so that they can afford other critical players like Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw.
Ultimately, the Vikings will reach a reasonable agreement to keep Hockenson under contract, and his potential will likely pay incredible dividends for the team. Hockenson seems eager to continue playing in purple, and the Vikings should be enthused by the prospect of him lining up with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for the next four years.
