Just over one year ago, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah sat down with USA Today’s Jori Epstein for his first big interview. Learning the ropes as general manager of the Minnesota Vikings, Adofo-Mensah was shockingly honest about many things. However, he really raised eyebrows when he discussed the quarterback position.
While Adofo-Mensah admitted he had “a good quarterback” he also admitted “We don’t have Tom Brady,” and “We don’t have Patrick Mahomes.” That kicked off a year-long soap opera surrounding Kirk Cousins and who Minnesota’s quarterback of the future will be.
This drama took another turn this spring when the Vikings didn’t extend Cousins but also didn’t select a quarterback in the first round of the draft. When Cousins addressed the media this week, he revealed that conversations on a new deal had stopped and that he was focused on playing out the final year of his contract.
“I think we’ll talk about the contract next March,” Cousins said. “Until then [I’ll] just focus on the season and the job to do right now.”
This is not the first time that Cousins has played in the final year of his deal. In fact, Cousins probably is intrigued by the idea because it maximizes his earning potential on a year-to-year basis. But failing to come to an agreement is dangerous for both sides. It could either force the Vikings to overpay or cost Cousins the long-term guaranteed deal he desires.
Let’s look at this through the eyes of Minnesota’s front office. Adofo-Mensah was correct when he said that Cousins isn’t at Brady or Mahomes’ level, but he also acknowledged how difficult it is to find a quarterback of that caliber. The Vikings were one of the most aggressive teams in scouting this year’s quarterback class. Ultimately, they chose not to take one until Jaren Hall in the fifth round.
Even if Hall learns the offense quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll become an NFL starter, which leaves the Vikings without a safety net at QB. It is a situation we’ve seen play out in the NFL before, the most notable being Joe Flacco’s 2012 season.
Flacco was a solid quarterback but not one the Baltimore Ravens were willing to make a long-term commitment to. Flacco looked like he was about to hit the market after throwing for 3,817 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions during the regular season. But he got white-hot in the playoffs, throwing for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while leading the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Baltimore’s hands were tied. They signed Flacco to what was them the largest contract in NFL history at six years, $120.6 million with $29 million guaranteed. The Ravens never saw the same level of success and went 40-40 over the next four seasons before they drafted Lamar Jackson in 2018.
The Flacco situation is what many think of when comparing Cousins to the Vikings, but it’s unlikely that it will play out. Although Minnesota is coming off a 13-win season, they lost several key contributors from that squad. The San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are on another level, so winning the Super Bowl may be a pipe dream in 2023.
But there’s a far likelier scenario. If Cousins can lead this team to another 13-win season or perhaps have a standout playoff performance, it could be enough to cash in.
Daniel Jones knows this all too well. The New York Giants declined his fifth-year option, making the 2022 season a contract year. Jones showed some improvement, throwing for 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. However, he didn’t look like a franchise quarterback until he faced Ed Donatell’s defense.
Jones threw for 334 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a Dec. 24 loss to the Vikings but rebounded to throw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while running for 78 yards in New York’s victory in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Those performances were enough for the Giants to give Jones a contract that pays him $40 million per season and reset the quarterback market.
Cousins has a better resumé than Jones, and it’s possible that he runs into a bad defense or two that can help inflate his overall numbers. If Cousins finishes it off with an epic playoff performance, he could cash in.
In fact, this has already happened. Cousins’ future was shaky heading into a 2019 playoff matchup with the New Orleans Saints, and things didn’t look good as the Vikings blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. One long pass to Adam Thielen in overtime and a touchdown to Kyle Rudolph a few plays later and Cousins had a two-year extension waiting for him when he got back to the locker room.
Could the Vikings make the playoffs? Absolutely. Could Cousins help pull off an improbable upset? You bet. Would it get to the level of Flacco’s playoff run? We would have to see.
But playing the final year of his contract is a significant risk for Cousins. His numbers (4,547 yards, 29 TD, 14 INT) were down from the 30-touchdown, 10-or-fewer interceptions standard he’s set during his career. However, he tied an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks and led the Vikings to 13 wins.
Both of those accomplishments will be hard to replicate because the Vikings face a first-place schedule. It will also be difficult considering Kevin O’Connell’s desire for a more efficient running game, which could give Minnesota more leads late in games or limit the opportunities for Cousins to throw the ball late in games.
It could lead to the season Cousins had when O’Connell was his quarterbacks’ coach in Washington. Cousins still put up solid numbers with 4,093 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However, it wasn’t enough to convince the Commanders to make a long-term investment, which paved his path to Minnesota.
Cousins turned out okay after that season. He signed the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL history. But he’ll be going into his age-36 season, which could deter teams from giving him one last payday and relegate him to “bridge quarterback” status.
Cousins is obviously comfortable in this situation, and it will be interesting to see it play out. But with both sides pushing their chips to the table, it creates a delicate situation where one side is going to wish they were more proactive.
