Turnovers at critical junctures continue to haunt the Minnesota Vikings, as they fell 28-24 to the previously winless Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday inside U.S. Bank Stadium. After Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seemingly gift-wrapped them a victory following a failed fourth-and-one fullback dive from their own 24-yard line with with just under two minutes remaining, the situational mastery that Kevin O’Connell has preached since taking over was anything but.
Instead of immediately spiking the ball to preserve clock following a nine-yard completion to T.J. Hockenson on fourth-and-six from LA’s 15-yard line, O’Connell prioritized the additional down by trying to call in another play to Kirk Cousins. The offense wasted 23 seconds and was completely discombobulated when they finally got around to snapping the ball with 15 seconds remaining. Cousins threw a catchable (albeit difficult) pass to Hockenson, whose hitch route at the goal line was reminiscent of a big man boxing out for a rebound on the hardwood. Nick Niemann tipped it, and Kenneth Murray came down with the interception in the end zone after the ball bounced into the air off of Hockenson’s hands.
It was the third consecutive week where the Vikings offense turned the ball over at the goal line to end a half. After losing three-straight one-score games, there’s an argument to be made that this team could flip their 0-3 record by demonstrating better execution on these three drives that resulted in turnovers instead of touchdowns.
Before we go any further, allow me to be abundantly clear: The Vikings lost on Sunday because of O’Connell’s clock management and his and Cousins’ inability to say thank you after Staley handed them the win. Having said that, let’s talk about Brian Flores and his defense that is devoid of any marquee talent, excluding Danielle Hunter and Harrison Smith.
The 2023 Vikings defense is a classic tale of damned if you do, damned if you don’t. That was made abundantly clear on Sunday when they drew a quarterback — for the first time this season — who is widely regarded as one of the best arm talents on the planet today. Justin Herbert is a freak of nature. There’s no two ways around it. At 6’6″ and nearly 240 lbs. with plus mobility, surgical accuracy, and a bazooka of a right arm, Herbert has absolutely earned a seat at The Game’s Best Quarterbacks table. When you combine his natural abilities with additional experience, having now entered his fourth season, it’s going to be hard to fool him at this stage of his career. He’s a walking, talking rule-breaker with the throws he’s able to get away with — and in critical moments, no less!
Flores entered TCO Performance Center this past offseason as a defensive coordinator who would unapologetically play the role of aggressor by blitzing the crap out of opposing quarterbacks. But no one could’ve expected this. On Sunday against LA, Flores blitzed on 42 of Herbert’s 49 dropbacks for a truly unbelievable 85.7% blitz rate (according to Pro Football Focus). And, according to our friends at PFF, it was the highest blitz rate ever recorded in an NFL game. Let that sink in for a moment.
To properly unpack Coach Flo turning into the real life version of Coach Yoast from Remember The Titans, we must first try to understand the why behind this decision. And the answer can be found in — you guessed it — Minnesota’s ineffective defensive front. But before we dive headfirst into that, we must give credit where it’s due. Hunter is playing lights out. He’s second in the NFL with five sacks and recorded a strip sack on Herbert in Week 3. Although he’s tied for 16th out all NFL edge rushers with 12 pressures through three games, he’s truly maximizing his efficiency when presented with opportunities to bring the quarterback to the ground.
Here’s how the rest of Flo’s defensive front shakes out when it comes to pressuring the quarterback:
It’s a heck of lot easier to make sense of Flores dialing up blitzes on damn near every play in Week 3 when this is what he’s been tasked with making tolerable. Being thrust into an every-down role after Za’Darius Smith‘s departure and Marcus Davenport‘s inability to stay healthy, D.J. Wonnum ranks second on the Vikings with 92 pass rushes. Out of 29 defensive linemen who have played 90-plus pass rush snaps in the NFL this season, Wonnum ranks 28th with four pressures. His 4.3% pressure rate also ranks 28th out of these 29 qualifying D-linemen. Denver’s Zach Allen is the only other every-down defensive lineman who is worse with three pressures and a 3.2% pressure rate.
Without any realistic reason to believe he can consistently create the necessary amount of pressure with four, Flores must choose between the lesser of two evils. He must either drop seven and hope his drastically below-average secondary doesn’t get completely torched by one of the game’s best quarterbacks, or take matters into his own hands by forcing Herbert to properly identify the blitz pre-snap and get the ball out quick.
Flores went with the latter on Sunday, and Herbert demonstrated why you simply can’t fall in love with blitzing marquee quarterbacks (especially at an 85.7% rate!) and expect the outcome to be anything but disastrous for your unit.
Against the blitz on Sunday, Herbert recorded the following (according to PFF):
- 34/40 (85.0 completion percentage)
- 317 yards
- 3 touchdowns
- 124.7 passer rating
The worst part about Sunday’s defensive effort was that, despite blitzing on nearly 86% of Herbert’s 49 dropbacks, LA’s line kept him clean on 73.5% of those dropbacks. Herbert wasn’t fooled and continuously got the ball out well before Minnesota’s desperate defense could even pretend to disrupt his surgical Sunday afternoon. This is precisely what the game’s best quarterbacks do against the blitz. Herbert’s average time to throw was 2.19 seconds on the 42 dropbacks where the Vikings blitzed him.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings lead the league in blitz rate at 63.0% through three weeks. It would only be logical to expect that Minnesota’s defense would correlate with being near the top of the league in pressure rate, right? Not so fast, my friend. Despite being the most blitz-happy unit in football, Minnesota currently ranks 25th with a 17.6% pressure rate.
Where does the defense go from here? Whether it’s the Philadelphia Eagles generating 259 rushing yards behind their dominant offensive line or Herbert going 40/47 for 405 yards, it’s hard to see what Flores can do to stop the bleeding. Don’t read too much into Sunday’s result against Frank Reich and the Carolina Panthers. With a first-place schedule, opponents will test Minnesota’s defense for the next three-and-a-half months, starting in Week 5. On October 8, Andy Reid and his World Champion All-Pros Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Thuney, and Creed Humphrey pay a visit to U.S. Bank Stadium.
Until the Vikings continuously re-invest in their defensive front with Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks and impactful free-agent signings, this defense will languish behind the NFL’s best units.
But look on the bright side. I hope some of you were fortunate enough to scoop up Cousins, Jefferson, Hockenson, or Jordan Addison in your fantasy league(s) this year. Because this Vikings offense will have no choice but to demonstrate 60 minutes worth of urgency on a weekly basis to try and atone for this abysmal defense. And the fantasy points will assuredly follow.
