We have reached the unofficial halfway point of the 2023 Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins are in need of a few days off after the Baltimore Orioles swept them, sending them into the break at 45-46. The Twins are in second place in the lowly AL Central with an offense that’s averaging 4.2 runs/game, 24th in the league. They also have 916 strikeouts as a team, giving them a 47-strikeout cushion over the second-worst team.
So the first half of the season definitely could have gone better. It could have also been worse if only a few things had gone differently. Here are some what-ifs from the first half of the season.
What if the Twins didn’t make the Luis Arraez–Pablo López trade?
Just in case nobody has considered this, what if the Twins decided not to trade their best contact hitter for a potential ace in López and two prospects?
Despite owning a 3.89 ERA in 111 innings pitched, López is having a good inaugural season in Minnesota. His underlying numbers indicate he’s pitching well: a 3.17 FIP and a 111 ERA+ (100 being league average). López’s fastball averages a career-high 95 mph. López has also generated swings and misses better than almost anyone in baseball. He’s third in the league with 138 strikeouts. López reinvented himself in Minnesota by developing a nasty sweeper and better diversifying his pitch mix.
Adding López into the fold helped the starting staff become one of the best units, top to bottom, in baseball. It’s also one of the best in Twins franchise history. But for the first time in years, the team’s issues came from the lineup and not the pitchers. Their .232 team batting average is 25th in baseball and 24th with 380 runs scored as a team. Arraez was the 2022 batting champ, albeit with a .313 average. However, Minnesota felt like they could let him go because he was without a true positional home, injury concerns, and a glut of left-handed hitters.
Arraez wasted no time settling into South Beach. After flirting with a plus-.400 batting average in June, Arraez enters the break with a .383 average with a .905 OPS. However, he only has three home runs in 86 games this season. The special first half has made him a cult hero nationally and more so among fans of his former team.
Many fans say that if Arraez had stayed in Minnesota, the lineup wouldn’t be as bad as it has become. The team batting average would certainly be higher, and maybe there is a slight bump-up in offensive production.
However, with Arraez playing in 144 games last season, the Twins finished 16th in baseball with 4.3 runs/game. Arraez’s success in Miami has made the trade look lopsided at times, especially if he continues to have a plus-.380 batting average. But one hitter can’t make up for an entire lineup struggling. The Twins have offensive issues they need to figure out. Arraez staying wouldn’t have glossed over that.
What if the had Twins moved on from Max Kepler?
One of Minnesota’s biggest off-season storylines was veteran outfielder Max Kepler’s fate. A glut of left-handed prospects, the addition of Joey Gallo, and a couple of underwhelming seasons from Kepler made him feel expendable. Instead, Kepler has been the everyday right fielder. Derek Falvey and the Twins brain trust believed that his talent combined with the recent shift limitations in baseball he could become the high quality bat that he was in 2019 and 2020. Despite some brief hot flashes, Kepler has only slashed .207/.279/.688 in 64 games in 2023. His 12 first-half home runs have been promising, but his 88 OPS+ (100 is league average) has him on track for his worst season in that category.
What if the Twins had cut Kepler after his slow start? He has hovered around being an average to below-average player. He hasn’t been productive, but he hasn’t necessarily been hampering the team the entire first half. But Kepler is blocking Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach from getting consistent playing time in the majors.
Wallner only played in 11 games in the big leagues, all before Memorial Day. Since then, he has been crushing in Triple-A with a .931 OPS and 11 home runs in 66 games with the Saints. Larnach has a .984 OPS with seven home runs in 26 Triple-A games. Both are left-handed hitting corner outfielders like Kepler. Additionally, they are also younger with multiple years of team control. On the other hand, Kepler is likely going to be a free agent after this season.
There is little doubt at this point that either Larnach or Wallner could do much worse offensively than Kepler in the second half. Even though Larnach already hasn’t made the most of his previous big league opportunities this season and Wallner doesn’t project as a superstar hitter in the majors, they still needed a chance. Their offensive contributions would have been helpful because they will provide the same, if not more, offensive production than Kepler. The Twins would also have gotten a better look at the long-term outlook of either outfielder.
The Twins have made their bed with Kepler as the starting right fielder and look prepared to lay in it for the rest of 2023. Despite renewed optimism and shift limitations, Kepler’s production is moving in the wrong direction even if it hasn’t been a complete disaster.
What if the Twins had a league-average offense?
Minnesota’s offensive struggles have been well noted through the first half of the season. The poor run production is even more noticeable when the team has put out the best top to bottom starting rotation in recent franchise history. There have been some disappointments offensively with free-agent signings like Joey Gallo and Christian Vázquez. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been the main issue. They were supposed to be the foundation of the lineup but have had disappointing seasons.
Averaging 4.2 runs per game as a team isn’t going to cut it. Minnesota’s offense gets mini-outbursts every so often, only to be followed by multiple games of under three runs scored per game. So what if this team didn’t even have a top-10 offense but just a middle-of-the-pack lineup?
Because of the up-and-down nature of Minnesota’s run production, let’s assume that the lineup scores four runs in every loss this year. The Twins would have an additional ten wins this season if they managed to score four runs in losses where they allowed three or fewer. A 55-36 Twins team at the All-Star break runs away with the AL Central with momentum to build on an offense at the deadline.
The 2023 season has been a mixed bag for the Twins at the halfway point of the season. Even with the losing record, they are still in a position to make the postseason. Maybe even making some kind of run if they can get their offensive issues halfway solved. It’s interesting to think how different this team could have looked if things shook out a little bit differently.
