Byron Buxton may have left the team for paternity leave on Monday, but he’s still healthy and will only be gone for three days. Even though he’s healthy, he’s still in the worst slump of his career and unlikely to see any playing time outside a designated hitter/pinch hitter role once he returns.
With the limitations of where he can play, the healthy, slumping Minnesota Twins star’s role does present limitations on what they can do at the trade deadline.
At his best, Buxton can provide what the Twins need most at the deadline He’s a sharp right-handed hitting outfielder with solid defensive skills. The second-best option is another right-handed hitter who they can primarily use at first base or DH.
Minnesota’s current depth chart, including Buxton, doesn’t present any easy options on who gets moved off the active roster if they acquire a new bat. In Buxton’s case, he has a .160 batting average, a .220 on-base percentage, a .387 slugging percentage, .607 OPS, and 44 strikeouts in 106 at-bats over his last 30 games.
They can’t send down the worst hitter on the team over that time period, nor is he showing any staggering signs to be put on the IL. On top of that, his positional limitation on, or technically off, the field complicates how the roster can see another bat added without someone who’s performing better than Buxton currently is, getting the call back down to Triple AAA or being traded to get the new bat.
The Twins brought Trevor Larnach up to replace Byron Buxton while he was on parental leave. Among the current Twins outfielders on the active roster, they are most likely to send him back down or include him in a trade for a new bat. His performance has been lackluster in the majors this year.
Over 47 games, he has had a .211 batting average, a .311 on-base percentage, a .388 slugging percentage, and below-league average .699 OPS. His numbers declined from how he’s produced during his first two seasons in the majors, and Alex Kirilloff finally settled into his role as a contact first hitter and platoon between first base and the outfield. It has shown the Twins have less need for Larnach on the roster as they need another right-handed-hitting outfielder more than they do him.
A rebuilding team may feel that Laranch would benefit from a change of scenery. If that’s the case, the Twins should trade him for a right-handed bat, easing the Buxton logjam.
But moving Larnach for another 40-man roster spot is only a small solution. There are still four other left-handed hitting outfielders, and the Twins will need to move one more around to add another player. Between Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner, one of them will have to go if Buxton won’t be put on the IL as a corresponding move before the deadline.
Kepler has at least bought himself time to remain on the team until the season ends. His hot streak in July has him posting a .299/.351/.493 triple slash with an.844 OPS in 67 at-bats. At the plate and defensively, has proven himself to still be a valuable asset to the team as the Twins make their run for the division crown.
Like Kepler, Castro has carved out a role that makes him vital to the roster. Castro has become Minnesota’s backup center fielder to Michael A. Taylor and the everything player that fills in at any position whenever any other player needs a day off. Even though his numbers at the plate aren’t fantastic, he’s their best threat on the base paths, leading the Twins with 23 stolen bases.
It’s going to be hard for the Twins to move Wallner because he’s from Forest Lake and has hit well this year. And he’s killed Triple-A pitching all season, posting a .291/.403/.524 triple slash and .927 OPS in 67 games with the Saints. He’s hit .308/.460/.436 (.896 OPS) in 18 games with the Twins, but they sent him down because they have so many left-handed hitting outfielders. They should keep him on the roster as a platoon/bench player.
That leaves Gallo as the odd man out. People may see Gallo as someone the Twins need to keep because of his power. However, his season has proven to only be a slight improvement from the previous year and a half.
Gallo is still the textbook definition of a three-true outcome hitter – he only hits home runs, walks, or strikes out. His walks have declined with his on-base percentage for the season (.298), but his power and strikeouts have remained the same. Gallo is striking out 41.2% of his at-bats and homering in 6.7%, which are hovering around his career averages (37.6% career strikeout percentage and 6.3% homer percentage).
Still, the game is beginning to shift away from a three-true outcome hitter, and Gallo has come as advertised. Keeping him around to only expect three outcomes in his plate appearances isn’t worth the risk, especially if Buxton is staying and producing similar results.
Gallo may not end up as the odd man out in the outfield. However, he’s the most obvious option to move because of his production at the plate.
There still remains a week for trades to be made across Major League Baseball. As we get closer to August 1, a lot can happen to free up spots on the 40-man roster. Only time will what it will look like on August 2.
