Before the re-signing of Carlos Correa, veteran slugger Joey Gallo was the Minnesota Twins’ offseason free agent highlight. Another free agent signing, Christian Vázquez, filled a perceived need at catcher. However, catcher was more of a need than a want. Conversely, the Twins brought Gallo in on a one-year, $11 million deal, and he was more of a want.
The Twins already had a plethora of left-handed hitting corner outfielders and first basemen with similar hitting approaches. Not only that, but all those similar players were either in the majors or high minors. Plus Gallo was coming off of his career-worst season with the New York Yankees in 2022. He slashed .160/280/.357 while hitting 19 home runs to compile a 0.6 fWAR in 126 games last year. Once in line for a big payday midway through 2021, Gallo joined the Twins as a trendy bounce-back candidate.
It’s easy to see why the Twins bought into a Gallo redemption arc. It felt realistic that he would return to his career numbers. They needed a new middle-of-the-lineup masher after the disappointing end to Miguel Sanó’s tenure in Minnesota. There was also familiarity on staff for Gallo. He was with the Texas Rangers when current bench coach Jayce Tingler was on staff. General manager Thad Levine was in the Rangers front office during his development in the minor leagues and first two big league seasons. Gallo was one of the league’s best sluggers in the Lone Star State. The two-time All-Star slashed .211/.336/.497 and hit 145 home runs with a 116 OPS+ in his seven seasons in Texas.
In 72 games this season, Gallo slashed .187/.310/.473 with 17 home runs and has a 111 OPS+. The Twins have also moved him around in the field, playing both corner outfield spots and first base. It technically has been a bounce-back season for Gallo. But has he been what the Twins signed up for when they signed the 29-year-old?
Well if the bar was to clear his career-worst season, he has at least done that. Gallo’s 0.7 fWAR has already passed last season’s mark. He will also likely pass last year’s home run total by the end of July. But the expectations have to be somewhere above the Logan Morrison-level production (-0.5 WAR in 2018) but probably not as high as the Nelson Cruz-level hitting (4.3 WAR in 2019). Realistically, it feels like the Twins were okay with a roughly 25-homer season with an above-.800 OPS.
If the Twins were 100 percent sure of Gallo’s resurgence, they probably would have given him more than a one-year deal. Remember, Minnesota signed a 38 year old Cruz in 2019 to a two-year deal with a team option in 2020.
At the beginning of the season, there was hope that a Gallo breakout year was imminent. During the first month, Gallo smacked seven home runs and had a 1.063 OPS. In his first 19 games with the Twins, he had a .236 batting average with a 33 percent strikeout rate which was lower than his 37 percent career average. But things trended backwards for Gallo over his next 54 games. His strikeout rate increased to 42 percent, and he only has 10 home runs and a .693 OPS.
It hasn’t been all bad for Gallo. His 93.5 MPH average exit velocity is above his 92.5 MPH career average. That’s in part because he figured out how to mash fastballs again – something that escaped him last season. But the chart below shows that he still can’t consistently punish offspeed pitches. Gallo’s more productive seasons come when he can mash secondary pitches like a sinker, which he has averaged a 4.2 run value from 2017 to 2021. Again, the Twins are getting a more improved Gallo, just not his peak production.
Everyone wants to make bold proclamations with free-agent signings or trades, labeling roster moves as steals, fleeces, or busts. However, Gallo appears to fall into the category of fine. Likely getting around 25 home runs for $11 million is far from the worst free agent signing. However, the Twins are still unlikely to get that high-ceiling home-run hitter form some in the organization would have liked Gallo to return to.
There was a big part of the Twins fanbase that was ready to move on from Miguel Sanó, who was a homegrown slugger who also had whiff issues. Gallo personifies that hitter mold of a streaky slugger, except he’s a left-handed hitter. Gallo was never going to hit for a high average, and he’ll likely finish the season with a sub-.200 batting average. Still, his career .794 OPS is in line with his .792 OPS mark this year.
What makes Gallo’s season frustrating maybe isn’t so much about his current production. It might just be more about the overall fit into this lineup. Gallo already entered a crowded room positionally. It also has hitters with similar approaches of punishing big swings while being okay with whiffs. There aren’t many contact-heavy, on-base hitters to complement Gallo’s approach. Even when Gallo hits the ball over the fence, 10 of his 17 home runs have been solo shots.
Gallo has been a slightly above-average player in Minnesota. But he’s also blocking playing time for prospects like Matt Wallner, who’s essentially a younger, less proven version of Gallo. The veteran is more proven and experienced, although his one-year deal means he’s not part of Minnesota’s long-term future. The Twins brought in Gallo to help this year’s team and also protect prospects like Wallner or Trevor Larnach in case they struggled or got hurt. Now instead of helping the Twins, it’s holding back everyone from getting a look at the future.
Adding Gallo had some merit in December. Now in the middle of the season, the Twins more or less are getting what they paid for in the veteran slugger. However, it seems the peak production bounce-back is something that is not going to materialize for Gallo in Minnesota this year.
