The calendar hasn’t even shifted to September yet, but the Minnesota Twins looked poised to recapture their first AL Central crown since 2020. The only Central team with a winning record, Minnesota has a five-game lead with 35 games to go. FanGraphs gives the team a 95 percent chance to win the division. Weird things can still happen, but it seems like the Twins can start to strategize for the postseason before Labor Day.
As they enter the final month of the regular season, it’s paramount that the Twins figure out what to do with Byron Buxton’s return. He’s been Minnesota’s designated hitter all year instead of playing center field. Buxton also hasn’t played in a game since August 1 in St. Louis due to a hamstring issue. Even when he has played, it’s been underwhelming. Buxton has a .207/.294/.438 slash line with 17 home runs and a 31.4 percent strikeout rate. He’s produced at a 0.7 fWAR and 99 wRC+ clip in 85 games this year. Those numbers aren’t horrible, but it’s not the production the team wanted from their best hitter of the last three seasons.
While the Twins DH’d Buxton to keep him on the field, they aren’t getting their desired results. To make matters worse, the fan base has been fiercely divided on the idea of the team’s best athlete being taken away from center field. Other fans will argue that the Twins should pursue anything that keeps Buxton healthy. The others say having a five-tool player and world-class athlete like Buxton only come off the bench to hit is a crime against the sport.
With the playoffs approaching, it appears that Minnesota’s brain trust might be reversing course. Rocco Baldelli announced after Sunday’s game that the Twins are considering returning Buxton, who won a Gold Glove in 2017, to center field. It’s enough to make the ears of any fan perk up, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Buxton and the Twins might have the best path forward to a return to center field.
Buxton’s production as a designated hitter has been a concern. A .731 OPS is not going to cut it for most DHs in the league, let alone someone in a potential playoff lineup. That position warrants high production at the plate, even if production isn’t necessarily high league-wide. The Twins made Buxton a DH in an effort to keep him playing on a more consistent basis throughout the season. With 85 games played in 2023, Buxton still can play in 100 games for the second time in his career.
As one of Minnesota’s highest-paid players, it made sense to get Buxton as many at-bats as they could. However, it created a log jam for rotational bats like Donovan Solano, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and others whom the Twins could have shuffled at DH.
Minnesota’s offensive production wasn’t good in the first half. Therefore, it didn’t matter as much if Buxton was filling the DH spot because nobody else was producing much more than he was. But the Twins have the fifth-best .802 OPS and sixth-best 122 OPS+ as a team since the All-Star Break.
Starters like Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco are healthy and in the lineup again. Matt Wallner and Julien have been contributing and haven’t locked in their positional homes. DH would be the place to go, but Buxton coming back complicates things. The Twins don’t want to bench one of their team pillars but also need to get the best guys in the lineup. Buxton going back to center can clear that up.
Buxton will likely come back as a part-time player. He needs to stay healthy for the playoffs. There isn’t much left of the season; therefore, it makes sense to treat Buxton as a part-time center fielder to test the waters. When he’s back in center, it allows the team to fully use the DH role to give at-bats to more deserving players. Minnesota has a big lead in the Central, so they can play him as much as they need to get him acclimated. Earlier in the season, it would have been riskier to play him often because nobody was producing and there was still too much time in the season for things to go wrong.
Buxton’s return to the outfield is a win for the team because his return to the outfield for the postseason means they can kind of revise history. They can argue all those games at DH kept Buxton from wearing down completely in the regular season and still allowed the team to use him as a playoff weapon. Resting from the injury can give the Twins a good reason to use him as a part-time player for the rest of the season without an official reduction in his role.
It could also be a win for Buxton. He can impact the game with his bat and his glove. He can get back into the field and make up for any sub-par production at the plate in the postseason with his elite play in center field. It also means that he can still be effective in short doses. Buxton’s 2023 campaign has been full of 0-for-15 stretches followed by hot stretches. If Buxton catches fire in October, he can win back those fans who chastised his move to DH.
The Twins have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule remaining, with a combined .476 opponent winning percentage. Compare that to the Cleveland Guardians, who have the sixth-hardest with a .526 opponent winning percentage. There’s no reason for Minnesota to relinquish the Central. And there’s no pressure on Buxton to produce if they’ve already wrapped up the division in September. If that’s the case, they can afford to let him get at-bats and hit through some struggles, so he’s ready for a postseason role.
Michael A. Taylor would be the only wrinkle in the plan. He came to Minnesota to rotate time in center field, but he took it over completely at the start of the regular season. His .698 OPS and a 34.3 percent strikeout rate aren’t great. However, Taylor has played consistently good defense all season long and is on track to break his career-high in home runs (19) with 16 this year. The Twins could platoon Taylor against lefties, use him as a baserunning weapon, or as a late-inning defensive replacement in the postseason.
As the postseason plan creeps into the mind of Minnesota’s brass, there is a golden opportunity to get Buxton back in the positional home he needs to be in. It can get Buxton his groove back and allow him to become the Twins’ star player they need to finally win their first postseason game in nearly two decades. That’s something every fan wants to experience, no matter where Buxton plays.
