There was no bigger name on the Minnesota Twins prospect list two years ago than José Miranda. His epic June 2021 run in Triple-A, where he recorded a 1.148 OPS, hitting 10 of his 30 home runs on the season in that month, made it certain that the Twins would call him up. Minnesota called up Miranda in May of 2022, and he became a fan favorite after hitting .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs and 66 RBIs in 125 games.
There was a bit of concern in the final two weeks of 2022 after he recorded a .638 OPS with only one home run. But his offseason activity masked those concerns. Miranda spent the winter getting in better shape, hoping that it would prevent him from wearing down like he did as a rookie. Even during Spring Training, Miranda looked ready to have a strong sophomore season, smacking five home runs in 67 at-bats in the Grapefruit League.
But Miranda suffered a sophomore slump this year. He hit .220/.275/.318 with three home runs through 35 games before the Twins sent him down in early May. Veteran Kyle Farmer took over at third, then top prospect Royce Lewis returned from his ACL injury in late May. Lewis logged a .328 average while becoming one of Minnesota’s best hitters since returning to the lineup. Despite being in a lot of Minnesota’s promotional material, it looked unlikely that he’d return. Especially in a full-time playing role at third base.
However, Lewis suffered an oblique injury in Baltimore on July 2. The Twins placed him on the 10-day injured list, and he will likely miss around six weeks. In a corresponding move, Miranda returned to the big leagues. Miranda now has another chance of extended playing time at third base to get his peak 2022 (and 2021) groove back and prove that his first 25 games with the team were an outlier.
The path forward for Miranda will be simple. He has to hit. He’s hit .255/.326/.360 with three home runs and 23 RBIs in 39 Triple-A games this year. Those numbers aren’t horrible, but that level of production also doesn’t scream promotion like the 11 home runs and .985 OPS Matt Wallner has produced in St. Paul.
Exit velocity hasn’t been a big issue for Miranda. His 88.6 mph average exit velocity is right around the league average (88.4 mph). Even if Miranda is hitting the ball hard a decent amount of time, it gets neutralized because he is smothering too many baseballs into the dirt. The path forward for Miranda can be boiled down into two different areas: plate discipline and swing path.
Miranda has a reputation as a ground-ball hitter in the minor leagues. Even during his 2021 power surge, he posted a 43.3 percent ground ball rate. Besides a 43.8 percent career ground ball rate in the majors, his 10.2-degree launch angle in 2023 is under the 12.2 league average. After some swing adjustments with no minor league season in 2020, Miranda did begin to find a power stroke, even if his ground ball rate didn’t massively shrink.
With the success of Lewis trying to lean more into contact-hitting than pure power, why can’t Miranda just try and emulate that formula?
Much of Lewis’s ability to hit for contact comes from his 50.8 swing percentage, which is more than league average. However, Lewis has played in significantly fewer games than Miranda at the big league level. On the other hand, Miranda has a 52.3 swing percentage. Along with a 36.8 first pitch swing percentage and 25.6 percent whiff rate, his production this year has been worse than last year.
Plus, Lewis has the speed to beat out ground balls and rush the timing of infielders on close plays. Miranda doesn’t have that same speed. That’s why he has grounded into eight double plays in only 36 games this year, second on the team only to Correa, who has played in 75 of the team’s 86 games this year.
Miranda is hitting for contact, but not in a beneficial way. A 65.8 chase contact percentage for Miranda this season is a five percent increase from the year before. It’s also worse than league average (58.1 percent). Drawing contact isn’t a bad thing. However, Miranda needs to learn to lay off the pitches that he can’t do anything with. Being more opportunistic at the plate can help him generate higher exit velocity and provide more productive at-bats can help Miranda, even if he doesn’t get the power to translate right away.
That’s not to say Miranda can never develop into being a high-contact hitter. However, with no track record of hitting for average in the minors, it’s hard to see that translate. The Twins have too many low-contact hitters who value big swings and slugging over pure contact hitting. But right now, it needs to be extra bases or bust right now for Miranda. He is getting an opportunity for extended playing time at third with Lewis out for the next couple of months. However, Rocco Baldelli has already pinch-hit for Miranda in each of his first two games back in the Twins lineup.
A turnaround is going to need to happen sooner rather than later for Miranda. Minnesota’s No. 1 prospect, Brooks Lee, could also play third base if Lewis can’t. And Austin Martin is progressing through the high minors, adding another young infielder into the mix. Since returning to the big leagues on Sunday, Miranda is 0-7 with a strikeout while also grounding into a double play in three games.
Miranda has an opportunity to get his sexy back, but it needs to happen quickly. To do that, he is going to need to tighten up on his pitch recognition and change his swing to allow himself to become the power hitter that he showed he could be in 2022. Not only to prove that he is a major league caliber hitter but also to show the Twins he can still be a key part of the team’s core for years to come.
