In the summer of 2003, the Minnesota Twins were scuffling into the All-Star Break. They were in the middle of an eight-game losing streak and had fallen 7.5 games behind a Kansas City Royals team that had Mike Sweeney, Carlos Beltran, and Raúl Ibañez.
They sent Bobby Kielty to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shannon Stewart, which barely garnered any national attention. But the Stewart deal turned things around. The Twins went 46-23 in the second half, won the American League Central, and even a playoff game over the New York Yankees.
Twenty years later, Minnesota is in a similar spot. Sitting a half-game back of the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the AL Central, this year’s Twins need to find their version of Stewart who can help their lineup. But which player makes the most sense?
To understand the situation, you have to look that the background of the trade that brought Stewart to Minnesota. The Twins had a decent lineup that ranked seventh in batting average and 10th in slugging percentage. However, they ranked 14th in on-base percentage, which limited their opportunities for big innings.
The Twins channeled Billy Beane in a quest to find someone who could get on base. They landed on Stewart, a 29-year-old veteran who hit .302/.369/.447 over his first eight seasons and had a .294/.347/.449 slash line in the first 71 games of the 2003 season.
A veteran like Stewart normally doesn’t come cheap, so the Twins had to get creative to make the deal happen. Kielty was a 25-year-old who produced at a similar level to Stewart. In 2002, he hit .291/.405/.484 while finishing fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year Award voting. A year later, his numbers had dropped to .252/.370/.420 in 75 games with the Twins. However, there was enough potential and four years of team control that enticed Toronto to make the deal.
The Twins took off not long after completing the deal. Stewart became a force in the leadoff spot, hitting .322/.384/.470 with six homers and 38 RBI in 65 games with Minnesota. Stewart’s second half was so good, he finished fourth in MVP voting and provided solid defense including a game-saving catch against Hideki Matsui in Game 1 of the 2003 ALDS.
Meanwhile, Kielty could never recapture his form from his rookie season. After hitting .233/.342/.376 in 62 games with the Blue Jays, they traded him to the Oakland Athletics for starting pitcher Ted Lilly. Kielty hit .249/.332/.392 in his final four seasons before winning a World Series ring with the Boston Red Sox.
Despite Stewart’s impact and the trade’s status as one of the best in franchise history, the deal didn’t trigger a massive celebration when they made it. Stewart never won a postseason award or made an All-Star game. However, it was a solid move on the margins that improved a weakness and turned a mediocre team into a contender.
But where does this leave this year’s team? And what move could they make at the deadline that will have the same impact as the Stewart trade?
It starts by assessing Minnesota’s biggest weakness. While they are on pace to set a single-season record for strikeouts, their biggest issue might be their performance against left-handed pitching.
The Twins haven’t been dominant against right-handers, but they’ve been miserable against southpaws. They rank last in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Ideally, the Twins would like to add a right-handed bat who could crush lefties, which naturally has turned their attention to the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis in a worse spot than the Twins. They are 38-52 and 11.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central. They are one of the few teams that could be true sellers at the deadline.
That has triggered speculation about Paul Goldschmidt as someone who could help the Twins. A seven-time All-Star and reigning National League MVP, Goldschmidt has hit .325/.429/.599 against lefties in his career. Trading for him would be the type of move that could energize a clubhouse. However, it’s difficult to imagine a package that would entice the Cardinals to send him to Minnesota.
To start, the Twins could dangle José Miranda as a modern-day version of Kielty. Miranda hit .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs and 66 RBI as a 24-year-old rookie last season. However, his production has dropped to .211/.263/.303 with three homers and 13 RBI in 40 games this season. While you can bank on his potential, at least Kielty was masquerading as an adequate major leaguer in his second full season while Miranda has mostly played in Triple-A.
There’s also the fact that the Cardinals might want pitching in return. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported last week that the Cardinals could consider trading Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks ahead of the trade deadline. That means that restocking the farm system with new arms could be a priority.
If this is true, it could be even more difficult to bring Goldschmidt to Minnesota. Connor Prielipp would be the most noteworthy arm the Twins could send in a trade, but he’s dealt with injury issues stemming from his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He owns a 6.75 ERA in two starts at High-A Cedar Rapids this season.
Perhaps the Twins could create a package of Miranda, Simeon Woods Richardson and Marco Raya. However, it’s unlikely that will be enough to outbid some of the other teams who have deeper farm systems and more quality prospects.
The Twins also looking to add a reliever at the trade deadline. Therefore, going all-in on a blockbuster move for Goldschmidt might not solve their problems – especially for a player who will turn 36 in September and has a .702 OPS against lefties this season. That could lead Minnesota to the secondary market. They may not acquire a household name there, but they still could get a player who could solve their biggest issue at the plate.
Minnesota could call the Washington Nationals about Jeimer Candelario. However, outfielder Lane Thomas might be a better target. Thomas, 28, ranks fourth among qualified hitters with a 1.073 OPS this season. With two more years of team control, he’s the type of player the Twins have targeted as a deadline move in the past. Jorge López and Tyler Mahle were more than three-month rentals.
Using the trade calculator at Baseball Trade Values, the Twins could swing a deal by sending Miranda and a prospect to Washington in exchange for Thomas. If they wanted to sweeten the pot, they could throw in Trevor Larnach and get a decent prospect in return such as pitcher Jarlin Susana (Washington’s No. 6 prospect per MLB.com), outfielder Jeremy De La Rosa (No. 8) or catcher Drew Millas (No. 28).
Connor Joe could also add to the major league team while acquiring depth in the organization. Joe has a .902 OPS against left-handers this season. The could Twins ask the Pittsburgh Pirates to throw in pitching prospect Mike Burrows, their No. 9 prospect per MLB.com, in exchange for Larnach.
Teams looking to dump salary are the other market that should have Minnesota’s attention. Tommy Pham is on the back end of a one-year, $6 million contract with the New York Mets and owns a 1.086 OPS vs. lefties this season. Randal Grichuk is also set to become a free agent at the end of this season. He has a .833 OPS against left-handers and experience playing in center field.
None of these moves would excite Twins fans. However, it might be enough to get the job done, especially if the current players on the roster start performing.
When Stewart landed with the Twins, the rest of the lineup followed his lead. Doug Mientkiewicz (.438), Michael Ryan (.441) and Lew Ford (.440) all posted on-base percentages over .400 in the second half of the season. A.J. Pierzynski (.397) was just percentage points shy of becoming the fourth player to hit that mark.
While no player was in the type of slump that has plagued the Twins lineup, they could receive a natural boost if they perform like they have in the recent past. Carlos Correa has a .854 career OPS against left-handers but a .711 OPS against southpaws this season. Byron Buxton has a .776 OPS against lefties but has a .623 OPS this season.
Max Kepler (.544), Larnach (.478), Alex Kirilloff (.437) and Edouard Julien (.250) are all regulars who are struggling against left-handers. However, with the pending return of Jorge Polanco (.960) and Royce Lewis (.854), the Twins could improve by positive regression.
Still, the Twins could use a shot in the arm, and it won’t take a blockbuster to do it. By acquiring a player who could give them what they need, they could avoid the “all-in” deals that have looked like disasters from last trade deadline and still give themselves a chance to play in October.
The Twins haven’t won a playoff game since Stewart was in the lineup. With an 18-game postseason losing streak over their heads, it’s time for this regime to find a similar player to save their season.
