Twins

Carlos Correa Had A Putrid First Month, But He's Not Alone

Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa is certainly relieved to see the calendar flip to May, and he’s not alone. While there’s no need to go into a full-on panic over a few down weeks, you have to remember that baseball fans, especially those in Twins Territory, require something to complain about at all times. They need something to chew on to keep them activated. Add in a superstar on a big contract with a disappointing start offensively, and it’s like a player throwing in a fresh wad of chewing tobacco that they so desperately crave.

Nevertheless, Correa is ready to move on from his challenging April and start fresh in the warm May breeze in Minnesota. Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are in a similar situation. These superstar third basemen signed lucrative deals to be offensive cornerstones in St. Louis and San Diego, respectively. However, uncharacteristic slumps bogged them down to begin the 2023 season. Their slow starts are just as surprising as Correa’s, but maybe Twins fans are having trouble hearing their criticisms over their own belly-aching. Luckily, Fox Sports’ Jordan Shusterman, best known as half of the iconic Cespedes Family BBQ Twitter handle, went into detail about the state of these surprising struggles.

He says that Arenado, a seven-time all-star, is a major reason why the St. Louis Cardinals are in the National League cellar.

“Arenado, meanwhile, has looked entirely out of sorts at the plate, striking out more than ever, hitting more ground balls than ever, and producing hard contact at the lowest rate of his career,” Shusterman wrote. “Is he secretly hurt? Is he suddenly bad? Whatever the reason, Arenado’s struggles have been shocking to witness — he was the last of anyone’s concerns coming into the year. Now he’s one of the biggest culprits behind the team’s slow start.”

Arenado has a putrid .244/.295/.328 slash line, which is roughly 28% worse than league average. It’s well below his career line of .288/.345/.530, and an incomprehensible dip for someone who put up 7.3 Wins Above Replacement just last year. As previously stated, his strikeouts are up considerably (21.7%), and he’s hitting the ball weaker than he ever has in his career. Arenado is in the 14th percentile for average exit velocity, the 16th percentile for barrel percentage and 16th percentile for expected slugging percentage.

Correa has had a difficult time making consistent hard contact, but he’s been nowhere near as anemic as Arenado. At least Minnesota’s shortstop can boast positive marks in hard-hit percentage (55th percentile), swinging-strike percentage (59th percentile), and maximum exit velocity (95th percentile). Correa can still make loud contact. It’s hard to say the same for Arenado, at least for the moment.

Machado has started turning his season around in the last week or so. He got some help from some increased elevation in the Mexico City series, crushing two home runs and a double. Still, his season-long slash line is still only .235/.281/.378, 19% worse than league average. He’s had a similar decline to Arenado, with a newfound inability to hit the ball hard consistently. He’s in the blue when it comes to barrel percentage (40th percentile), expected slugging (24th percentile) and expected batting average (11th percentile). That’s certainly not what San Diego Padres fans wanted to see in the first year of Machado’s 11-year, $350 million contract extension that he signed in spring training. However, his last seven days have been spectacular for the star slugger. He has a .333/.417/.810 slash line in that span.

Like Machado’s recent return to form, maybe a new calendar month will present a similar progression for Correa, who has a .227/.346/.455 line in the last week. That’s a far cry from Machado’s monster stretch over the last few days, but it’s at least closer to the level of offensive production that fans expect from Correa.

These three star players each signed lucrative deals with their clubs, worth a combined $825 million in guaranteed money. So of course it’s jarring to see none of the three with an OPS above .825, or even .725 for that matter. It’s safe to expect drastic improvements between now and season’s end. And if they can’t rise to the occasion, it’ll be like another fresh wad of the good stuff in the yaps of their rabid, die-hard fans that need something to chew on.

Twins
It’s Starting To Feel Like 2022 Again
By Tom Schreier - Mar 28, 2024
Twins
3 Under-the-Radar Twins Prospects to Keep An Eye On in 2024
By Cody Schoenmann - Mar 28, 2024
Twins

Can Pablo Lopez Cement His Twins Legacy In 2024?

Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins begin their 2024 season on Thursday in Kansas City. It’s been a long off-season for a fanbase coming off their first postseason success in […]

Continue Reading