Sonny Gray had a career year last season. With a 2.79 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 184 regular season innings, Gray was dominant throughout much of the year and will likely end up in second place in AL Cy Young voting. Even more remarkable than his ERA and strikeout total is that he only gave up eight home runs all season. Gray’s ability to keep the ball in the park is unique in modern baseball, given how much teams emphasize hitting home runs.
Although his numbers were solid, Gray had one glaring flaw in 2023. Once he reached the third time through the order, his ERA ballooned to 4.85. It’s fairly common for pitchers to run into trouble the deeper they get into games, but Gray’s numbers got demonstrably worse the longer he went in a start. Gray allowed 34 runs the first two times through the order and 23 runs the third time through. Therefore, the big question with Gray is: Does his ability to prevent home runs make up for his issues facing the order a third time?
Gray recently completed his tenth season in the majors, and his troubles with the third time through the lineup may only get worse as he gets older. His success with limiting home runs could also diminish with age. In such a home-run-happy era of baseball, allowing a single-digit homer total in a full season probably isn’t sustainable for an older pitcher.
Before you write off Gray’s future with the Twins due to his age, consider that he also had one of the best seasons of his career in his tenth year in the majors. Gray’s ERA was the second-lowest of his career over a full season this year, behind only his All-Star season in 2015. His 183 strikeouts also tie a career-high set in 2014, and his 184 innings pitched is the third-most he’s ever had over a full season. Gray’s veteran savvy and plus off-speed stuff may allow him to pitch well into his 30s.
If the Twins extend Gray, he will certainly be a big part of the pitching staff in 2024. It’s possible that the Twins will manage him differently next year to prevent issues with fatigue. Many baseball fans prefer to see starters pitch deep into games and dislike when they get pulled before the sixth or seventh innings. But maybe the Twins will decide that five or six solid frames are enough for Gray, and then they turn it over to what should be a high-quality bullpen.
If Gray can come even close to replicating what he did this year next season, it would go a long way toward helping Minnesota continue their starting pitching success as they look to build on their AL Central title and playoff series win in 2023. Although his future with the Twins is still uncertain, the fact that he had one of the best seasons of his career at age 32 should have Twins fans excited about what he can do next year if they extend him. As long as the Twins can figure out how to use him in a way that limits his fatigue as much as possible, Gray should be one of their top starters again in 2024.
