FanGraphs released their annual ZiPS projections for the upcoming MLB season, and it looks like they project some stellar performances from a few of the Minnesota Twins’ star players. FanGraphs projects Carlos Correa to hit 24 home runs with an .818 OPS. They peg Byron Buxton for 33 bombs and an .828 OPS in only 130 games. And they expect José Miranda, 24, to top 3.0 Wins Above Replacement for the first time in his career.
One player who isn’t getting a rosy outlook on this projection system? Trevor Larnach, Minnesota’s first-round pick in 2018. According to the model, they see him accruing only 0.4 WAR, with an anemic bat and little playing time regularly. The left-handed outfielder has appeared in 130 total games at the big-league level across the last two seasons, hitting a combined .226/.316/.371. That’s roughly five percent below average according to wRC+, and it’s an output that is hardly anything to write home about. Hence the tepid outlook from the ZiPS model.
But is this a fair assessment of what Larnach can offer his club in 2023?
An argument can be made that this estimate of his value is too attached to the idea that he’ll play in only 73 games next year. That’s 11 games fewer than Michael A. Taylor’s projected 84 games, and he’s a defense-first backup outfielder. Of course, Taylor is bound to play plenty, given Minnesota’s efforts to keep Buxton healthy. But it still feels off-putting to suggest he’ll play more than Larnach, a highly-touted recent top prospect.
Granted, a lack of opportunity is part of Larnach’s light forecast in the games-played department. The outfield is currently bound to host plenty of Buxton in center field, with Max Kepler and Joey Gallo getting the biggest share of opportunities in the corners as starters. That all checks out when determining diminished playing time for Larnach.
As previously stated, Buxton will get plenty of off days as well, or at least a plethora of games as the starting designated hitter. When that happens against a left-handed pitcher, it makes total sense to throw Taylor into the lineup. He has league-leading defensive capabilities and a respectable .257/.310/.412 career slash line against southpaws. But if Buxton gets a breather against a right-handed starter, it would make far more sense to have Gallo replace him as the starting center fielder, with Kepler and Larnach in the corners. That puts three bats who can do damage against righties in the starting outfield, and each has shown the ability to play above-average defense in these respective positions.
In just 331 innings played in the outfield last year, Larnach was worth about 5.9 runs above average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. While UZR shouldn’t be viewed as gospel when it comes to defensive evaluation, that figure certainly matched the eye test for the 25-year-old. He appeared to take far cleaner routes, with excellent field vision and a strong arm that landed four outfield assists. While brief, those flashes of excellent defense were tantalizing for a Twins club that finds themselves at a crossroads with their roster.
Aside from finding additional playing time for Larnach when Buxton needs a break from center field, it’s likely that he could find additional opportunities if Alex Kirilloff can’t produce at first base after undergoing wrist surgery in two consecutive seasons. ZiPS is also far from bullish on Minnesota’s projected starter at first. They estimate that Kirilloff will play in 97 games, slashing .252/.313/.415 with a projected 1.1 WAR. That would be a 20-point improvement in on-base percentage and a 40-point increase in slugging percentage. While Kirilloff is hardly washed up at 25 years old, that improvement feels unrealistic after a significant procedure that is still causing him some pain as we head into Spring Training.
Kirilloff’s track record at the game’s highest level isn’t much better than Larnach’s to this point. His .251/.295/.398 slash line in 104 games played is similar, and his injury outlook is dimmer based on the aforementioned surgeries. So if he can’t get on track in a hurry, the Twins would be smart to pull him from everyday action and replace him at first base with either Gallo or Miranda, potentially opening up more time for Larnach.
That strategy would optimize a Twins lineup that can’t afford to start slowly. After two consecutive losing seasons, not to mention the unexpected return of a superstar shortstop and three rotation cornerstones set to reach free agency at the season’s end, they need to find a groove by the end of April. To do that, they’ll need to find room for Larnach, even if the ZiPS model finds that unrealistic.
