It already looks like Joey Gallo is experiencing bounce-back success this year. Concerns began initially after an 0-7 start to the season in his first two games. That trepidation turned into optimism when Gallo went 4-6 over the next few games. Three of those hits were moonshot home runs that drove in seven runs.
When he’s right, Gallo becomes one of baseball’s most dynamic power hitters. Since 2017, only 10 players have hit more home runs than Gallo. That number could have been even higher if he could produce since leaving Texas. Since July 29, 2021, he played 184 games with the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. All Gallo has had to show for the last season, and change was a .160/.288/.374 slash line and 32 home runs.
A .160 batting average seems criminally low. However, it’s not the most concerning stat for Gallo, considering his .200 career batting average. It’s his .662 OPS in that time that was the most concerning. He also had a 39.8 percent strikeout rate in 2022, a career-worst for Gallo when he played a full season.
Gallo’s play might feel a little familiar for Twins fans. A slugger with a powerful swing and high strikeouts? Someone who the Twins are hoping can flesh out some inconsistencies to provide a true power threat to the middle of the lineup? It’s déjà vu for the Twins all over again. The role the team envisions for Gallo seems similar to the role Minnesota had in mind for Miguel Sanó.
As a rookie in 2015, Sanó received Rookie of the Year votes after he smashed 18 home runs while slashing .269/.385/.530 in 80 games. Sanó had some issues with strikeouts, but he could take good at-bats and draw walks. As a rookie, Sanó averaged 4.34 pitches per at-bat, more than Joe Mauer, who saw 4.07 pitches/AB that season. An All-Star appearance in 2017 was another added step in his development.
However, Sanó could not take that next step of becoming a consistent bat in the middle of the lineup. In 2018, he had a sub-.200 batting average and a .679 OPS. That season was so bad that the Twins sent Sanó down to Single-A for a reset. It paid off in 2019 when he set career highs clobbering 34 home runs. Sanó’s stat line wasn’t bad in the 2021 season. Still, it may have been the point of no return for the future of his Twins career after an abysmal start where Minnesota effectively benched him for rookie Alex Kirilloff.
Sanó eventually became one of the more polarizing Twins players during his career. Throughout the minor leagues, he was considered a building block of the franchise with his loads of power to fill out the middle of the order. Some parts of the fan base stood by Sanó even in his low points because of how high his highs were. The other part of the fanbase became maddened by seeing a player with consistent playing time in the middle of the order strike out at the highest rate they had ever seen. At least Gallo has the benefit of Twins fans already being warmed up to a hitter with some similar attributes as Sanó.
On the surface, Gallo and Sanó look like they have the same makeup as sluggers with high home run totals and strikeouts. Both have recently had some rough seasons from a production standpoint, but one is making $10-plus million, and the other is currently unsigned. There has to be something the Twins see in Gallo that they couldn’t get out of Sanó.
Partially, it’s about the previous production. The inconsistencies between the two also aren’t exactly the same. Gallo and Sanó entered the big leagues in 2015. Since then, Gallo has recorded 180 home runs and 15.3 fWAR, while Sanó has hit 162 home runs and only 8.6 fWAR.
The WAR discrepancy boils down to a couple of factors. Gallo is a plus on the basepaths, with consistently positive base running above-average totals. Also, he is a Gold Glove-winning in the outfield who can also bring added value as a first baseman. Sanó had a cannon at third but with limited range. He was consistently providing negative value defensively, even as a first baseman.
When it comes to approach, Sanó is a one-pitch hitter. He can crush fastballs, with 85.8 runs above average against the heater. But Sanó is in the negative against every other pitch, especially the slider (-22.1) and changeup (-13.6). Gallo isn’t as strong of a fastball hitter (63.5) and struggles against the slider, too (-2.4). However, it’s not as brutal as Sanó’s figures against breaking or offspeed pitches.
Sanó was always the same player with the Twins, especially regarding strikeouts. His strikeout totals were acceptable when he hit a high number of home runs and walks to pair with them. Excluding the 2022 season, which Sanó missed most of due to injury, Gallo steadily improved his BB/K ratio while Sanó got consistently worse.
A Gallo bounce-back season seemed to be the better assumption compared to a Sanó reunion. Sure, his last couple of seasons in New York and LA were bad, but it is an overall outlier in terms of his career production. For Sanó, his eight seasons in Minnesota consisted of three solid years and otherwise league-average or below-average seasons.
At his peak, Sanó was a great power bat in the middle of the lineup. Lasting eight years as a major leaguer is nothing to scoff at either. But Sanó was a hitter who is either elite or unplayable with the number of inconsistent stretches throughout his career. For Gallo to be successful in a Twins uniform this season, he has to avoid those rough patches that plagued Sanó’s career. There needs to be a continual evolution in his game. The walks and home runs just need to be able to mitigate the high strikeout numbers that will inevitably come. Fortunately, Gallo changed up his swing with Twins hitting coach David Popkins in the offseason.
Joey Gallo seemed to be a prime bounce-back candidate this offseason after two disappointing seasons with the Yankees and Dodgers. He’s showing flashes of the star player he was in Texas. Miguel Sanó had a similar fall from grace but was never able to fully recover. Gallo has a chance to become the game-changing slugger that Minnesota hoped Sanó could be. It’s still early April, but Gallo has already shown enough production to get Twins fans excited.
