The sign of a team that’s really hitting their stride as they head into the postseason extends beyond just their win-loss record. And while that tally has been fantastic for the Minnesota Twins (40-27 since the All-Star break, fifth in MLB), the true eyebrow-raiser has been their improvement in their most challenging split of the season’s first half.
Until mid-July, the Twins were by far one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching. But something clicked for the ballclub in the season’s back-half, and they suddenly find themselves boasting numbers against southpaws that would make them a serious threat in October.
Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic was right on the money in a piece earlier this week where he highlighted some of the team’s issues in the first half and their recent improvement in those areas.
Their lineup versus lefties went from a potential strength to a glaring weakness. The Twins collectively hit just .218 with a .654 OPS off lefties in the first half to rank dead last out of 30 teams in batting average and OPS. They were so bad versus lefties that opponents would bring in any mediocre lefty reliever they had for a multi-inning stint, knowing the Twins were helpless to punish them.
Part of the reason the team had underwhelming success in the first half was the disappointing output from star right-handed hitters such as Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. It’s now well-documented that both players were trying to play through considerable ailments. Nonetheless, their dropoff acted as an anchor to the offense’s sinking ship against lefties for much of the first three months.
Hitting opposite-handed pitching used to be an absolute strength for Buxton, but his line in those instances in 2023 couldn’t have been much worse. He sports a brutal .179/.256/.372 clip, while striking out 32.2% of the time. That production is 35% worse than league-average, and lightyears away from his career slash of .248/.312/.462 against lefties. For a cornerstone player to stumble that hard in their wheelhouse, it could be a death sentence for most contending teams.
Speaking of franchise cornerstones, Correa also had his own production here dip this season. While his splits against lefties are still rock-solid this year, he’s still seen a significant decline. He still managed to boast a .248/.346/.436, which was 14 percent better than average, but he only hit five homers. That power outage lowered his production significantly, even though it may not have sunk him completely.
Luckily, the rest of the lineup has picked up the slack, especially after the All Star break. Since that time, they’ve been led by lineup mainstays such as Jorge Polanco (129 wRC+), Michael A. Taylor (127 wRC+), Donovan Solano (112 wRC+) and even Max Kepler (103 wRC+). It may seem out of place to bring up Minnesota’s right fielder, since his figure only represents a three percent improvement over league-average. However, Kepler is notorious for having fits against lefties throughout his career (.216/.290/.357, 76 wRC+). So while his numbers against lefties since mid-July are modest, the improvement is nothing short of season-saving, for both Kepler and the Twins’ offense.
That jump in production has been a jolt for a club that was gaining a reputation for being too reliant on their star pitching to win games.
Minnesota’s pitching kept them afloat in the first half of the season while their situational hitting faltered. However, we’ve seen a steady regression to the mean for both sides. Make no mistake, the pitching staff has been solid in the second half, but they haven’t quite matched their dominance from April through June. The hitting has driven them lately.
So what does this mean as the club heads to the postseason? Of their possible opponents in the first round, every team except for the Seattle Mariners have a left-handed starter who could feasibly be lined up to face the Twins. The Texas Rangers have Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), the Houston Astros have Framber Valdez (3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and the Toronto Blue Jays could opt to use Yusei Kikuchi (3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
Can the emerging lineup Minnesota’s sluggers continue their trend when they get a postseason spotlight? They’ll have to if the Twins want to advance in the postseason.
