There might not have been a more popular Minnesota Twins player after the 2019 season than Max Kepler.
Since making his debut in 2016, the German-born outfielder had slowly taken strides to become a mainstay as the Twins’ everyday right fielder. Everything came together in 2019 for a monster breakout season that included a .252/.336/.519 slash line with a career-high 36 home runs. That 2019 season began with Kepler signing a bargain five-year, $35 million contract extension to keep him in Minnesota as a core player for years to come.
Minnesota’s experience with Kepler was great early in his career. However, it feels like once the baseballs changed after the 2019 season, so did Kepler’s production. In the last three-plus seasons, he has hit .217/.310/.388 with 38 home runs in 290 games. Entering this season, it looked like the Twins would move him because they had a surplus of left-handed bats behind Kepler in the farm system. But Kepler returned to the team after Minnesota could not find the right deal for him. Still, there was some renewed optimism for Kepler’s production at the plate following the rule changes that limited shifts. Plus, most of his underlying numbers weren’t raising too many alarms.
But it’s been a rough start for Kepler in 2023. He started his season hitless in his first 13 at-bats. Kepler’s first hit was a solo home run and a single on April 3. However, he left that game against the Miami Marlins midway through and went on the 10-day IL with knee soreness. After coming back on April 15, Kepler’s only hit in nine at-bats ended up being a solo home run in Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to the Boston Red Sox.
Kepler’s strikeouts remain low, but he’s only drawn one walk in 25 at-bats this season. His wOBA has decreased every season since 2019. He had a .355 wOBA with the Bomba Squad, but last year it decreased to .298. His current .158 wOBA would be his career-worst since becoming a full-time starter in 2016. Kepler’s 11.8 barrel percentage this year is a career-high. However, he has a career-low 85.6 MPH exit velocity.
Kepler’s post-2019 issues haven’t come from lack of walks, too many strikeouts, or even the shift. It’s been his ability to drive the baseball. Kepler went from a 36 percent ground ball rate over the last four years to nearly 10 percent to a 44.4 percent ground ball rate this season. Whether it’s from a change in approach or a change in fortune, Kepler has gone from a hitter who was attempting to hit the ball over the shift to one who consistently smothers baseballs into the ground at higher and higher rates.
Despite his .120 average and .545 OPS, the Twins don’t seem to be inchiting to move off of Kepler, even though he is a league-average player with young prospects behind him. Those prospects also need to earn their way into the starting right-field spot. It’s good methodology that prevents them from overexposing prospects. For example, they traded league-average veteran Gio Urshela to make room for José Miranda at third base.
However, the options behind Kepler haven’t materialized yet. After a hot start, Trevor Larnach has cooled off over the last two weeks. Alex Kirilloff and Joey Gallo, two other left-handed bats, have been rehabbing in Triple-A. Matt Wallner had a quiet week filling in for Kepler, with no hits in six games for the Twins before they sent him back down.
For Kepler to be cut, or more realistically platooned, there does need to be somebody else who can show consistent production as a hitter. The Twins have a history with Kepler as a homegrown player with past production. Even if it was now four years ago, it seems like the team won’t shove him away unless their hand is forced. A trade during the offseason may have been the easiest path for the Twins to split with Kepler.
There was a lot of discussion this offseason about the Twins having too many left-handed hitting corner outfielders, and a slow start hasn’t helped the discourse on Kepler. It’s not that Kepler’s play fell precipitously. Instead, he had been unable to take the next leap to consistently produce. Overall, Kepler has hovered around league average in multiple cumulative stats.
Kepler’s one of the best right fielders in team history, and in recent history across baseball. Kepler is a 60 outs above average fielder, which is the most in baseball among right fielders since 2016. He also ranks 12th best in the league during that span. That 60 OAA clip even beats out fellow right fielder and perennial All-Star Mookie Betts.
Kepler has snuck his way up the franchise leaderboards. He ranks 20th in Twins history recording a 16 WAR clip in his eight-plus seasons in Minnesota. Kepler’s 131 career home runs are 15th best in team history, and he’s one back of tying Jacque Jones for 14th on the all-time list. Kepler’s 412 wRC is also 24th all-time in Minnesota history.
The reason for Kepler’s high status in these categories speaks to his dependability. Since becoming a full-time player in 2016, Kepler has appeared in at least 113 or more games in every season, excluding the shortened 2020 campaign. That includes a career-high 156 games in 2018 followed by 134 in 2019. Although he’s suffered some injuries in 2022, Kepler still logged 115 games. That’s worth noting because his immediate replacement, Larnach, has never played 80 games or more in his major league career.
Kepler has been an impactful player during his time in Minnesota. However, his career ceiling looks more aligned with a league-average player. Therefore, it feels like it might be best for both teams to move on. The Twins had passed on a chance for a natural breakup during the offseason, so now they will have to make a tough decision sometime this season.
