The 2023 season has been a movie for Byron Buxton. We’re not talking about the kind of drama that moves viewers to tears. Nor is it a heart-stopping thrill ride that ends with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the World Series. We’re talking about the type of movie that has everyone guessing until the end. It’s a mystery that would make Sherlock Holmes blush.
The mystery? When will Buxton make his return to the outfield? The Minnesota Twins last put Buxton in center field just over a year ago when he logged seven innings in a 2-1 loss to the Texas Rangers on Aug. 22, 2022. Since then, Buxton’s status has been cloudy, exclusively serving as the team’s designated hitter in favor of trade acquisition Michael A. Taylor.
In June, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said that Buxton “physically can’t” play in the outfield due to his health. However, things have changed recently. Baldelli told reporters on Saturday that now was Buxton’s “best opportunity” to return to the outfield.
Such a move has its benefits for Minnesota. Still, it might not be the needle-moving move that turns them into a legitimate contender. However, it might be the best move for the Twins, who are looking to put their best foot forward down the stretch.
The benefits of Buxton’s return to the field are obvious. Buxton won the Platinum Glove Award winner for center field in 2017. You could argue he would have more if he could avoid the injuries that have piled up during his career. Having his bat in center field would also provide more value for the Twins, who are looking to get young players such as Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Alex Kirilloff (when he returns from a shoulder injury) into the lineup on a more consistent basis.
But sticking Buxton in center field might not be the panacea for Minnesota’s problems. The Twins are a flawed team, but they have willed their way into contention in a weak AL Central. Part of that has been the team’s ability to squeeze Buxton into the lineup on a daily basis, but his numbers have declined as a result.
In 85 games this season, Buxton is only hitting .207/.294/.438 with 17 home runs and 42 RBI. If we combine his numbers from last season, Buxton is hitting .216/.300/.485 with 45 home runs and 95 RBI in 177 games.
Teams will keep players with those numbers in the lineup. Low-contact, high-power bats like Kyle Schwarber and Joey Gallo still have jobs. Still, it’s far from what the Twins were expecting when they signed Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million contract with incentives following the 2021 season.
Buxton hit .306/.358/.647 with 19 homers and 32 RBI in 61 games during the 2021 season. It was a continuation of the hottest stretch of Buxton’s career. From 2019 to 2021, he hit .277/.321/.576 with 42 homers, 105 RBI, and stole 25 bases.
On an elementary level, the expectation is that by placing Buxton into the outfield, we’ll see him bounce back to his previous level of performance. If he rebounded to last year’s production (.224/.306/.526, 28 HR, 51 RBI in 92 games) that led to his first All-Star appearance, the Twins would take it in a lineup that has struggled to consistently score runs this season.
But that’s hopeful thinking compared to the player Buxton is now. The Twins traded for Taylor as an insurance plan in center field, and he has produced at the same level with an OPS 33 points lower than Buxton. Taylor has also provided similar defense with eight outs above average, according to Statcast.
That last point is important, because we don’t know how much the injuries have sapped Buxton’s ability to play the outfield. When Buxton last played in the outfield in 2022, he was one of baseball’s best defenders with eight outs above average (7th among all MLB center fielders). He also had a 6 percent success rate added, which ranked second behind then-Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Daulton Varsho.
Buxton’s sprint speed has also increased from 29.1 feet per second in 2022 to 29.4 feet per second in 2023. However, we don’t know how that would translate to the outfield and if a handful of appearances would take a toll on his long-term performance.
Still, let’s say everything checks out defensively, and the Twins plug Buxton into the lineup. While it opens up the avenue for other players to get at-bats, it also doesn’t solve Minnesota’s strikeout problem.
Buxton has decreased his chase rate and is posting a career-high walk rate. However, his 31.4 percent strikeout rate is third on the team behind Gallo (42.8 percent) and Taylor (34.3 percent). Even if Buxton were to free up the designated hitter spots, the incumbents don’t strike out less. Julien (29.2 percent) and Lewis (28.3 percent) have comparable strikeout rates.
Moving Buxton to the outfield also wouldn’t solve Minnesota’s ability to hit left-handers. The Twins rank 25th with a .687 OPS against left-handers, which Julien (.459 OPS), Kirilloff (.470) and even Buxton’s OPS (.627) highlight.
While there are many unknowns and flaws with moving Buxton to the outfield, the benefits are too great to ignore. When the Twins made Buxton their designated hitter, it created a chain reaction that not only bogged down their lineup but also hurt their defense.
The Twins would love to get Julien in the lineup against right-handers. However, if he has to play second base, it puts Jorge Polanco out of position at third. If Polanco is at third, Lewis might not find his way into the lineup becasue they’ve entrenched Carlos Correa at shortstop.
Buxton’s return also leaves the Twins in a bind against left-handers. Lewis (.870 OPS) and Ryan Jeffers (.793) are two of their best hitters against left-handers on the team. However, they could be relegated to the bench with Buxton as the designated hitter.
With the pieces together, the mystery of Buxton’s disappearance in center field is finally creating a conclusion. While it’s not a perfect solution, it is one that can benefit the Twins and see a few more players get involved as they try to break the playoff curse.
