When the Minnesota Twins reported to Spring Training in February, there were already some roster construction concerns. One of the most talked about issues in Ft. Myers was who was going to be the leadoff hitter.
Luis Arraez was the easy write-in option, but the Twins traded him to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López and two prospects. Lately, Rocco Baldelli has leaned on Jorge Polanco in the leadoff spot before he went back to the injured list with knee issues. Baldelli has also put a reluctant Joey Gallo in the No. 1 spot, and he’s produced some solid numbers in that role. However, Gallo doesn’t seem interested in hitting in the 1-hole.
Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were the other two options, given their histories as productive hitters. Buxton has seen his fair share of leading off with 12 appearances in that role, but he’s been battling a knee injury. The Twins would prefer to use their best hitters closer to the middle of the lineup than the No. 1 spot. It left Baldelli with few options; someone had to fill in at that spot. Therefore, Max Kepler leads Minnesota in games as the leadoff hitter in 2023.
Outside of Buxton, Twins fans would not have expected Polanco, Gallo, and Kepler to have double-digit appearances as the No. 1 hitter in the lineup. The season started with virtually no good options at the top of the batting order. However, some possible solutions to Minnesota’s leadoff woes have popped up in recent weeks. Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff are both qualified hitters to take the mantle.
Managers can overthink the leadoff spot, especially considering how a leadoff hitter has traditionally looked in baseball. Typically, they were a slap hitter who knew how to work a count to see as many pitches as possible for the top of the order. Additionally, they would likely be one of the fastest players on the roster so they could steal second base and set the lineup for the team’s top hitters immediately in the first inning. In modern baseball, though, managers have made one of the team’s best overall bats the leadoff hitter because they will get the most plate appearances in the game regardless of speed or lack of runners that could be on base.
So what makes Kirilloff and Julien ideal leadoff hitters for the Twins? Experts have praised them as pure-hitting prospects throughout their minor league careers, and those skills have translated in the big leagues. Kirilloff and Julien of them stockpile good at-bats, with Kirilloff (4.07) and Julien (4.06) sitting toward the team lead in pitches seen per plate appearance. Only Correa, Gallo, and Trevor Larnach average more pitches in an at-bat.
In a small 21-game sample size, Julien has a .246/.338/.478 slashline with a 127 wRC+. His bat-to-ball skills make him an ideal leadoff hitter. Julien has some sneaky power, but a .342 BABIP with a 7.5-degree average launch angle makes him a good option to get on base for Minnesota’s other top hitters. Julien isn’t known for his speed, although he stole 21 bases in Double-A last year. Having that skill in his back pocket is an underrated help for the Twins to get a runner in scoring position, even if they don’t maximize base stealing.
The walks haven’t come yet with a 0.32 BB/K ratio. But that should get closer to his .78 minor-league BB/K average with increasingly more at-bats against big-league pitching, especially considering his 15.8 percent chase rate is much better than the 28.4 percent league-average chase rate. Julien fits closer to a throwback leadoff hitter mold. However, replacing the blazing speed with some sneaky power makes leading off a nice spot for Baldelli to put him in the batting order.
Kirilloff is slashing .290/.413/.450 with a 148 wRC+ through 32 games this season. His power still hasn’t materialized, but he is making up for only three home runs with 7 out of his 29 hits on the season being doubles. A .377 BABIP with an above-average 89.5 MPH exit velocity is fulfilling that potential that made Kirilloff a No. 1 prospect in the Twins system and one of their most hyped-hitting prospects in nearly two decades.
Just look at his spray chart:
Kirilloff is the closest guy to a traditional pure hitter. But when his wrist is healthy, his power is legit. He is more of a modern leadoff hitter, replacing single and steal capabilities with the ability to rope a double. Plus, he has an easier path for consistent playing time than Julien as the team’s starting first baseman because he can also play a corner outfield spot.
There are some drawbacks. Mainly that Julien and Kirilloff have not fully established themselves as consistent producers at the big-league level. Wrist injuries have slowed down Kirilloff each of the last two seasons. Plus, he only has one start as the No. 1 hitter in 2023. Julien only has 21 games of major league experience and his time in the majors. Currently, he is reliant on Polanco being on the IL. That and Julien’s walk and strikeout rates need to stabilize. Both are inexperienced in the leadoff spot. However, their underlying numbers and characteristics as hitters profile as effective leadoff options.
Baldelli probably won’t use only one player in the leadoff spot. However, there will be some disparity in leadoff at-bats. Julien already has the advantage on Kirilloff and could take the mantle while Kirilloff fits better towards the middle of the batting order. It’s contingent on if the Twins only use Julien at second or if they will be willing to use him at first base or DH more often to get his bat in the lineup. If that’s the case, Kirilloff should spend more time as the No. 1 hitter. His all-around skills at the plate outweigh his middle-of-the-order abilities. An automatic out to lead off every game and ruin momentum for the other top hitters later in games has been an issue for the Twins all season long, and Kirilloff fixes that.
Kirilloff and Julien still need to prove that they can continue their production at the plate e. But in the immediate term, Baldelli could use them to solve one of Minnesota’s most persistent issues regarding the top of their lineup. A good No. 1 hitter will always need to be able to take long at-bats, make consistent contact, and be worthy of making the most plate appearances in a game. Kirilloff and Julien are built to do just that to set the table for the top of their lineup for the rest of this season and in the future.
