The Minnesota Twins offense has struggled to score runs over the past week. During their losing streak that began last Saturday, the Twins scored six runs combined over a five-game stretch. But other than allowing seven runs in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, the Twins have been solid in the pitching department in that span. Therefore, the blame for the losing skid falls squarely on the bats’ inability to produce. But perhaps the run totals don’t tell the whole story of the team’s hitting woes. Is the lack of run production from the offense due to roster construction and poor at-bats? Or is the lineup just running into some bad luck and injuries? Let’s take a closer look and find out.
Expected Batting Average (xBA) is a statistical category that can tell us a lot about whether or not the Twins offense is actually playing poorly or just dealing with a stretch of bad luck. According to Baseball Savant, xBA “tells the story of a player’s season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.” Minnesota had a much higher xBA than the Rays in the series finale on Thursday, .305 compared to Tampa Bay’s .195. That suggests that the Twins should have performed much better than they did at the plate in that game. They had quality at-bats with good contact that did not pan out for them in the end. In their 4-2 loss to the Cleveland Guardians last Saturday, the Twins registered an xBA of .289, another solid number not reflected in the actual number of runs they scored.
The numbers for the other three losses in the skid tell a much different story. On Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, the Twins registered an xBA of under .200. In these games, the offense’s struggles were primarily due to poor at-bats, which their strikeout totals reflect. Between Sunday and Wednesday’s contests, the Twins struck out 37 times in total. Instead of hard contact that was just not producing runs, the offense was not making much contact. Strikeouts have been a problem for the Twins all year, as Minnesota has the worst strikeout percentage in the majors (26.8%).
Another part of the Twins’ difficulties on offense recently is the injuries the team has had to deal with. Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco are on the injured list. As a result, the team has been unable to put out its strongest lineups lately. It’s possible that once those three players are back healthy, they will be able to help bring a spark to an offense that has been seriously lacking it recently.
If you want some optimism that the Twins will be able to put things together offensively, look no further than the first two games of the series against the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend. In Friday night’s game, Minnesota got big contributions from Michael A. Taylor, who drove in all three Twins runs, and Royce Lewis, who had four hits on the night. Three runs is hardly an explosion, but the offense did just enough in the game to take advantage of another solid outing from Sonny Gray.
The explosion that the Twins had been waiting for would come on Saturday afternoon, though. They rallied from a 3-0 hole to put up nine runs in the late innings. Carlos Correa had a grand slam, followed by a three-run homer from Max Kepler in the 8th inning. These home runs were huge not only because they helped Minnesota win with a much-needed late ambush but because Correa and Kepler have dealt with hitting struggles throughout the season. That might be exactly what they need to start heading in the right direction.
Minnesota’s lack of offensive firepower over the last week isn’t the result of one thing alone. They have dealt with a little bad luck lately, and sometimes they have had quality plate appearances that haven’t worked out. But sometimes, it is due to bad plate appearances, as the high number of strikeouts suggests.
One thing that we know is that this year’s Twins are capable of having excellent offensive performances, and a big part of the reason they have been so frustrating at times is how inconsistent they are. But Minnesota has turned in two solid offensive performances in a row. Hopefully, that’s a sign that things will be able to turn around soon.