The Minnesota Twins bandwagon has seemed to hit every pothole over the last few weeks. And yet, this old jalopy is still moving. It may not be moving very fast, with four flat tires and some black smoke billowing out from under its hail-damaged hood, but it hasn’t crashed entirely to this point. The club finds themselves in pole position against:
- A hastily thrown together grade-school boxcar (the Cleveland Guardians)
- A motorless 1971 Chevy Vega (the Detroit Tigers)
- One of Tony LaRussa’s abandoned golf carts (the Chicago White Sox)
- And an old shopping cart with a family of racoons living in it (the Kansas City Royals)
The Twins need someone to step up, take the wheel, and guide this bucket of bolts back to the fast lane. And with a shortage of effective veterans to lead their team back to a successful run, that task might be left to their player with the biggest price tag, Carlos Correa. It’s been a peculiar year for the veteran infielder, but if anybody is going to get this lineup out of their current funk, it just might be him. While he hasn’t lived up to his billing as a premier player, Correa has shown signs of improvement lately. Can he grab the wheel of this team before they get run off the road?
To do that, Correa will need to have a standout second-half, much like he did last year. From June 8th of last year through the end of the season, the shortstop was one of the better hitters in the league. He slashed .296/.374/.490 with 19 home runs, and put concerns of his slower than usual start to rest. That performance over those last four months was worth roughly 48% above league-average, and propelled him to a free agent market where he landed a contract worth at least $200 million.
Whatever adjustments Correa made in June of 2022 were extremely effective, and that switch is in desperate need of flipping right now. Through his first 53 games this year, the slugger has been below league-average in offensive production with a 94 wRC+. Maybe it’s due to a nagging injury in the form of plantar fasciitis, or a team-wide approach that has been inconsistent at best and downright painful at worst. No matter what the reason is, the outcome has been ugly.
Surprisingly enough, Correa’s numbers have certainly improved over the last month. Even before his mammoth home run against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday, Correa had a good-not-great .236/.345/.375 (104 wRC+) over the last month, with a handful of well-hit outs mixed in. Obviously, that’s a lot less power than anyone expects from a player making $33 million for his prodigious bat. But it’s a sign of a turning tide for Correa, or at least that’s the hope.
Esteban Rivera of FanGraphs has an interesting theory as to why Correa’s power has been so limited in 2023. “Right away, my eyes are drawn to Correa’s opposite field and popup rates. Correa has had the greatest success when he has kept his opposite field mark under 30%; the uptick here is worth looking into,” he said in a piece a few weeks ago. “It doesn’t appear to be related to Correa’s swing decisions — his chase and swing rates are in line with career norms. That makes me think it could be related to his contact point, which is tied into his swing mechanics.”
That’s fascinating, considering the fact that the eye test suggests his approach has been problematic. His career-high 25.2% strikeout rate might suggest the same. Nevertheless, his dramatic climb in pop-ups, which happen to be just as unproductive as a strikeout, have led to a disappointing overall output.
Now would be the time for Correa to start stinging the ball with more consistency, much like he did in the final four months of last year. Other offensive juggernauts like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Joey Gallo are battling the injury bug themselves. They’ve also had streaky production from young bats such as Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis. Therefore, the club needs Correa to take the wheel if they hope to remain in the race for playoff contention.
It’s nice that the team doesn’t have to worry too much about the level of competition in their division, but it’s clear that multiple members of the squad are battling themselves. Correa’s last month has been a step in the right direction. Now he needs to take another step to the driver’s seat. Because without someone taking the wheel for the next four months, the Twins bandwagon is just as pitiful as their competition.
