Joe Ryan couldn’t get the Baltimore Orioles lineup to chase his splitter. He had worked on it with Pete Maki, the Minnesota Twins pitching coach who they elevated when Wes Johnson left for LSU almost a year ago. Ryan had the fastball and slider going against Baltimore’s potent lineup on Sunday and struck out ten batters. The only issue? His pitch count elevated rapidly, and things unspooled on him in the fifth inning.
Jordan Westburg led off the fourth with a single, and Ramón Urías drove him in with a home run. Ryan got Gunnar Henderson to fly out, but he walked Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander. Rocco Baldelli sensed Ryan was fatigued after throwing 98 pitches and removed him. Lefty reliever Jovani Moran gave up five runs, and Baltimore led 8-1 entering the bottom of the fifth. They won the game 15-2. Minnesota fell to 45-46, a half-game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.
After the game, a reporter asked Ryan if he was disappointed that he didn’t make the All-Star team. Sonny Gray and Pablo López were headed to Seattle, but Ryan and Jhoan Durán may have joined them if the Twins had a better record. Minnesota has led the Central for most of the year, but they have a worse record than the Boston Red Sox, who are in last place in the AL East. After hearing the question, Ryan demurred and paused for what felt like an eternity.
“Sure,” he responded, confirming he was disappointed. “Yeah.”
It’s hard for a sub-.500 team to get more than two players in. But Minnesota’s starters have done their part. There have been some solid performances out of the bullpen. However, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have not been All-Star caliber hitters this year. And young players like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Edouard Julien don’t have enough at-bats to qualify. The Twins should have taken advantage of a down year for the Central. Instead, they’ve battled through injuries and poor performances, treading water all season.
The bigger question for Ryan is if he’s an All-Star caliber pitcher. He has a 3.70 ERA, above his career average (3.66) and what he had last year (3.55). However, his 117 ERA+ is a career-high, and his 3.50 FIP and 1.009 WHIP are lower than last season. Last year, he feasted on the AL Central and had his worst outings against the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox. Given that MLB made the schedule more balanced, Ryan had to pitch better against non-Central teams to be an effective starter — and he has.
Still, he has to add to his repertoire to continue his first-half performance. According to Fangraphs, Ryan still throws his fastball about 60% of the time and mixes in a slider (15%). However, he’s dropped his curveball and changeup in favor of a splitter, which makes up the other 35% of his pitches. Ryan usually gets outs using location on his low-90s fastball, but he still needs a third pitch. He couldn’t get Baltimore’s lineup to chase the splitter on Sunday. Presumably, it’s something he’ll work on over the break.
Probably the fastball and slider were working best today. We worked on the split this week. Pete was really helpful with that, and it felt like it was going to be a little bit better than it was today. Honestly, I threw it for the most part where I wanted to. They just didn’t swing at it. So that’s frustrating.
But I think fastball command. [Christian] Vázquez did an outstanding job with his setup today. We were working on some things. He was awesome. I think the first three or four innings were the best we’ve gotten on the same page, rhythm-wise, setup-wise. If we’re going to take a positive from today, I would take that…going forward. Just a great job preparing for the game. It was really good, I think, just going forward into the second half, something we can build on.
I asked him if he thought he was close to getting the splitter right.
I threw some really good ones today. We were just trying to find a little bit more consistency with the movement. Got some swings and misses on ones that weren’t as crisp. And then got some foul balls and stuff. But just a lot of takes on that pitch, too. Maybe just didn’t set it up as well as I could have. Get a little more consistent.
It’s the next frontier for Ryan, and his development is vital for the Twins. Regardless of if he ever makes an All-Star team, he was already a steal. Minnesota traded Nelson Cruz for Ryan at the 2021 deadline. Cruz was a popular player, but he was on an expiring contract. The Twins needed high-end pitching. In a rare trade mistake, the Tampa Bay Rays felt the fastball-heavy Ryan had limited upside. Instead, he’s joined Gray and López as a vital part of Minnesota’s rotation.
However, Ryan will need to join López as part of a one-two punch at the top of Minnesota’s rotation if Gray departs in the offseason. Gray told the Star Tribune that he will test free agency in the offseason. Any long-term contract for the 33-year-old Gray is risky, even coming off an All-Star season. But a pitching needy may gamble on him. The Twins have some pitching depth now, especially with Bailey Ober’s emergence, and spend their resources elsewhere. Therefore, Ryan may have an elevated role and need to pitch at an All-Star level. He’ll need batters to chase his splitter.
