Before the Conference Series had even ended, Joe Ryan was among a group of pitchers who went to Driveline Baseball in Seattle for an assessment. It was a relatively down season for Ryan, who posted a 4.51 ERA after beginning his Major League career with a 4.05 and 3.55 ERA. The story was the same with ERA+. He posted a 95 mark this season (5% worse than the MLB average) after 106 and 110 marks the previous two seasons. He missed three weeks of August due to a groin injury that seemed to plague him for much of July. It would be fair to chalk this season’s struggles up to it. His ERA at the end of June was a stellar 3.46 before his groin injury affected his pitching.
Now healthy, Ryan is looking to find another level of success.
His fastball was once again a terrific pitch for him. Throwing it roughly 57% of the time, it was the 12th-best four-seamer per run value (9th-best among starters). Thanks to its release point being a pinch under five feet, its flat approach deceives hitters because his fastball appears to rise on its way to home plate.
Batters chased it (97th percentile), whiffed on it (97th percentile SwStr%), and didn’t do much with it (80th percentile wOBA). wOBA is like on-base percentage plus slugging percentage but factors in the ways the player reached base. Things were starkly different if they made contact. The xwOBACON of the pitch, which only measures the xwOBA of contact (no walks or hit-by-pitches) was in the 31st percentile. It was a risk-reward pitch for him.
There’s not much more Ryan can do to improve his four-seamer.
Adding velocity is always nice, but his somewhat low arm slot (which helps him release the ball so low to the ground) impedes him from throwing much harder. He touched 96 mph on his first pitch of the season after working with Driveline, but it may not be realistic to expect it to stick for the whole season, let alone a game.
Ryan’s secondaries are the clear difference-maker for him. That was the case in June, during last season, and when he was in the Tampa Bay Rays’ minor league system.
Improving his secondaries will allow him to more confidently throw his four-seamer. They’ll give him options to go to in two-strike counts. He could throw fewer first-pitch fastballs in favor of surprise secondaries that fall in the zone when batters expect a fastball.
Driveline identified (subscription required) these same things approximately a year ago.
After his time at their facility, Ryan was throwing a brand new splitter and a revamped sweeper. His arm slot was a natural fit for a sweeper, and the splitter had tons of drop. The pitches drew rave reviews from teammates in Spring Training, but they saw mixed results once the regular season started.
Occasionally, they worked well. The splitter induced chases (55th percentile) but didn’t perform in many other areas. Batters hit it hard and for a high average.
It found the zone frequently – probably too frequently. For a pitch that seemed to have fooled batters into chasing, Ryan’s 94th-percentile zone rate could probably be reduced. He left it hanging far too often. Throw more of them beneath the zone where they’re less hittable, and maybe good things will happen.
The splitter wasn’t the only issue for Ryan in 2023. His sweeper and slider both performed worse. Batters hit for a higher average and wOBA against them, though on softer contact. He seemed to have control of them, and his sweeper was truly a great fit for him.
Thanks to seam-shifted wake, his sweeper moved much more than its spin would suggest. Due to the orientation of the seams, one side of the ball experiences smoother flow than the other, forcing the smooth side to be pulled to the other side and thereby generating more movement. It’s a skill Ryan definitely possesses, but one he needs to find more consistency with.
Circling back to Ryan’s skill set, his expected stats indicate that he can be a frontline starter:
Besides the splitter, Ryan underperformed expectations in terms of wOBA. His expected ERA further highlights that.
His 4.51 ERA in 2023 is not fantastic. The 3.53 expected ERA very much is. Based on the quality of contact he gave up, the underlying stats indicate that Ryan should be a far better pitcher than he was last year.
There’s a clear path to realizing that success he was expected to have. He needs to improve his secondary pitches. A trip to Driveline is a good first step.
