Hunter Greene was on the Sports Illustrated cover leading into the 2017 draft, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s first as Minnesota Twins executives. However, they used the first overall pick on Royce Lewis, a shortstop from Southern California. Greene could hit and pitch. Lewis? He had the “it factor.” A portion of the fanbase felt left down. How could Minnesota pass on Greene, knowing how much the team needed pitching?
We got our answer this year. Lewis hit .309/.372/.548 in the regular season and had four homers in the playoffs.
Two years ago, the Twins capitalized on the lack of a market for Carlos Correa after the Houston Astros didn’t extend him. Minnesota got creative and offered Correa a three-year, $105 million contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons – essentially a one-year deal. Correa played well defensively and hit .291/.366/.467. However, he boosted his slash line by hitting .296/.377/.463 in September after a moderate year at the plate.
In the offseason, the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets passed on Correa because of his injury history. The Twins capitalized on the opportunity and offered him a $200 million contract with incentives. Correa slashed .409/458/.545 and played game-changing defense in the postseason.
However, Minnesota’s most controversial move may have been trading Luis Arraez for Miami Marlins starter Pablo López. Arraez was coming off an All-Star season where he hit .316/.375/.420 and led MLB in batting average. He hovered around .400 until August, dominating ESPN’s daily baseball coverage and helping turn Miami into a playoff team.
Meanwhile, López carried a 4.00-plus ERA for most of May, June, and July until he dropped his ERA below 4.00 in August. López’s WHIP and FIP indicated he was pitching better than his counting numbers showed. Still, he looked like an average pitcher in the first half. López spun seven shutout innings in Game 2 against Houston.
Minnesota’s front office has shown us they’re willing to take a risk. Greene was the hot name during the 2017 draft, but they trusted the late, great scout Mike Radcliff’s instincts in Lewis. Radcliff was right. Lewis is an impact hitter who manned third all year after two ACL surgeries. He’s a natural leader and regularly comes through in the clutch. Correa acknowledged that Lewis drove the offense this season while the veteran shortstop battled plantar fasciitis. Correa, 29, is still in his prime and should return to his .272/.351/.468 career slash line if he stays healthy next season.
By trading for López, the Twins rounded out their rotation and discovered an ace. Sonny Gray, 33, was the veteran leader among the starters. But López is Minnesota’s best pitcher. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Kenta Maeda filled out a stellar rotation this year, and Chris Paddack and Louie Varland could join it next year. The bullpen also rounded out late in the season. By trading for Correa and López, the Twins have a viable shortstop and quality pitching for the first time since 2004. Coincidentally, they won their first playoff game since 2004 and their first series since 2002 this year.
The Twins are unlikely to outbid the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers for star players. And while the winter is less of a deterrent for players because they play from April until October, Minnesota isn’t going to become a premier free-agent destination. Therefore, the Twins must draft and develop well and take risks in the trade market.
They used trades to fill out most of the rotation, but the team is mostly homegrown. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louie Varland pitched high-leverage innings out of the bullpen. Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien took judicious at-bats while Matt Wallner displayed light-tower power. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have been with the organization since 2009; Donovan Solano and Brock Stewart were savvy offseason pickups.
There is no one way to build a team, but in Minnesota, it makes most sense to draft and develop players. Still, they must supplement the roster with trades for impact players and find value in the free-agent market. Falvey and Levine have been doing that for a while, and it all came together this year. But the Twins can’t be satisfied with breaking longstanding postseason losing streaks and hanging with the Astros. They must continue to take calculated risks to become a bona fide contender.
