Pablo López has not been the same pitcher the Minnesota Twins signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension. In eight starts since signing that extension, he has a 6.15 ERA and 4.44 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Opposing hitters have posted a .802 OPS against him in 45.1 innings of work.
So what gives? What has caused Minnesota’s newest star pitcher to drop off so dramatically in his performance?
López believes it’s the letting the big inning get to him after cruising through a start as he did in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, June 1.
“I think one very important thing as a starter is you need to avoid those big innings,” López said in his postgame interview on June 1. “Whether that’s you’re throwing too many strikes, whether you’re putting too many people on base, but you have to find a way limit the damage, limit those innings so it won’t get out of hand. I dug myself into this hole. I know I can pick myself right back up and hopefully contribute more to the good games that the team is having.”
Unfortunately, ruts like the one Lopez finds himself in are familiar territory for him. The second half of last season was brutal, following a first half worthy of an All-Star nod.
López had an eight-start stretch from July 31 to September 10 last season, where teams tore him apart, minus a scoreless, six-inning outing against the Oakland A’s on August 23. Opposing hitters also crushed him worse than they currently are, as they had a .344 batting average and .934 OPS against him. During that stretch, López’s had a 7.17 ERA and 4.20 FIP.
With such a bad stretch of starts following the trade deadline last season, how did Lopez remain a viable candidate for the Twins to go after this off-season? His final four outings of last season tell that story.
López regained his command of the strike zone, allowing only four walks across 20.1 innings in those four starts. He appeared to lose command of the strike zone in his troublesome eight-start stretch, too. López only allowed one walk in his last start against Cleveland. However, that walk created a vicious cycle at the top of the sixth.
López is aware of these command struggles and saw last Thursday’s outing as an improvement to build off of going into his next start on Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
“Today, I was in the zone; a lot of good things did not happen,” López said. “It just gives me the encouragement that with the process, the results will come. If you think on the results, then that’s a little different story because you’re thinking of trying to control a lot of things you can’t control. I’m going to come into the field tomorrow and prepare for my next start the way I’ve been doing.”
López’s pitch arsenal is the thing he can control, and his curveball has been a primary indicator of López’s command. While it was the best breaking ball he had for the 2022 season, it’s been entirely the opposite this year.
Last season, it was a complete swing-and-miss pitch. Opposing batters hit a .095 average in the 235 times he threw his curve. However, López has thrown his curve 110 times this season, and hitters are seeing it better than any of his other pitches. They are currently hitting .310 with 10 extra-base hits against the curve.
Even as hitters are tearing apart López’s curve when they make contact, he’s still getting them to swing and miss on the pitch. He has a 35.2 whiff% against hitters on the pitch, and he has recorded 13 of his 86 strikeouts on the season with the pitch. Therefore, there are some signs of hope López can turn things around with the pitch.
There’s no guarantee that López will break out of this rut in his next start. However, there is some indication that he’ll bust out of the rut he currently finds himself in once he stops overthinking and gains command of the strike zone.
