Sonny Gray entered free agency as potentially the top starting pitcher on the market, and it didn’t take long for this year’s AL Cy Young runner-up to find a new contract. On Monday, Gray signed a 3-year, $75 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis desperately needed to stabilize their pitching staff. Their 4.81 team ERA was bottom-three in the National League.
Gray needs to be more than the Cardinals’ ace on the mound; he also needs to lead the young pitchers in St. Louis’ farm system.
Minnesota was always unlikely to bring him back, even with payroll cuts. However, a compensation pick in next summer’s draft, likely in the 30s, is the consolation prize after he rejected the qualifying offer. Still, the 2023 All-Star was highly impactful in his brief stint in the Twin Cities. Gray put the finishing touches on a Twins rotation and pitching infrastructure, setting it up for future success.
The Twins organization deserves most of the credit for the pitching turnaround. President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and the front office found talent, and the coaching staff developed them well. As the biggest veteran presence in the clubhouse and with a decorated track record, Gray aided the development of Minnesota’s young pitchers in multiple ways.
Gray had been an effective pitcher before Minnesota traded for him in March 2022. Given their previous success, a veteran may not always want to adapt to a new team’s suggestions. But Gray immediately took instruction from the coaching staff. As a result, he had two solid seasons and a big payday in his mid-30s. Gray had a 4.19 ERA with the Cincinnati Reds in 2021 but produced a 3.30 ERA in Minnesota. He recorded 183 strikeouts, 13th-best in baseball and the most he’s thrown since 2019.
Squeezing back-to-back solid seasons out of an established name like Gray was crucial for building Minnesota’s pitching brand. Now there’s confidence in the Twins coach pitching to other veterans like Gray. If the Twins bring in another free agent or trade for an arm to replace him, they can point to his success for credibility.
Even Gray’s biggest “rift” with the Twins helped the young pitchers. He frequently pounded the table to pitch deeper into games in 2022. A 7.16 ERA in the 5th inning that season didn’t exactly earn him more opportunities in a start. Still, he continued to push himself to earn that right. Innings were less of an issue in 2023. Gray logged 184 innings, the most for him since 2015, and his 2.63 ERA in innings 4 through 6 this season was a big reason why. Gray pushed the entire staff to go deeper into games. In 2022, Minnesota’s rotation had 110 starts that lasted five innings or fewer, the most of any team in baseball.
“I don’t think we’re interested in going four innings and being happy,” Gray said. “I disagreed with that then. I disagree with that now, but I feel like just the guys we have aren’t content with it either, which is what you want as a rotation.”
Minnesota’s pitching turned around because they were a deeper, more talented unit. In 2022, the Twins were 27th in innings pitched as a rotation. One year later, the Twins were top-four in the league, with their starters recording 895 innings in 2023. Most of the same pitchers from 2022 also threw in 2023. Thanks to Gray, they learned how to earn the right to pitch later in big-league games.
Pitching in Minnesota upgraded from a 19th-best 3.98 team ERA in 2022 to a 3.87 team ERA, which was top-five in baseball last season. A 24 percent strikeout rate since 2022 is top-10 in baseball compared to a 23rd ranked 21.7 strikeout clip from the starting staff in 2021.
Gray helped mentor multiple Twins starting pitchers in the last two seasons. Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland have recently made strides with the team. Joe Ryan is the most notable. Ryan made his major league debut in 2021, but his first full season was with Gray beside him in the rotation in 2022. Ryan has improved each season. He had a 3.55 ERA in 2022 and an All-Star-level first half in 2023 before a groin injury halted his momentum. Twins coaching largely influenced his development, but Gray always had Ryan’s ear.
“I was definitely a Sonny Gray fan for a long time,” Ryan, who grew up in the Bay Area, told Star Tribune. “Just getting to play with him and see why he’s been so successful, it just makes sense. The first time you meet him and talk to him, it all comes together.”
How much of an impact a respected pitcher has on other Twins veterans shouldn’t be overlooked. The Twins brought Pablo López in to be Minnesota’s ace. Thanks to Minnesota’s development, López also received Cy Young votes in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and finished second in the junior circuit with 234 strikeouts. Still, López benefitted from Gray “talking pitching and talking baseball” during Joe Ryan’s complete game shutout on June 22.
“I remember him asking, ‘What’s it like to throw a pitch in the ninth inning?’” Gray said during a pregame interview in September. “I said, ‘To be honest with you, it’s no different than all the pitches you throw in the first inning.… The only difference is once you get done with that inning, the game is over.”
Three starts later, Lopez got his first opportunity to pitch in the final frame. He knew exactly what to do as he shoved to earn his first career complete-game shutout.
“I’m like, ‘Man, here he is.’ … I got goosebumps.”
Gray’s pick-off play against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series secured Minnesota’s first postseason series win in two decades. It was a moment the savvy veteran Gray prepared for nine months ago in Ft. Myers. Setting the standard for how much pitchers must work to execute in the biggest moments.
It’s almost impossible for the Twins to find another pitcher to fill the production of 5.3 bWAR from a Cy Young runner-up. Gray may not even replicate last season’s production. Pitching as many innings as Gray did and only allowing eight home runs is hard to see continuing next season. His 3.69 expected ERA was almost a full run higher than the 2.79 ERA in 2023. Gray also didn’t miss a start in 2023 and pitched in 32 games, the second-most in his career. It’s tough for any player, especially a pitcher, to have back-to-back seasons of perfect health. Still, Gray will likely still be productive in 2024, even if it’s not at last year’s pace.
The Twins acquired Sonny Gray, likely with the assumption he was a two-year rental with a nice rebate. On the mound, his production was above what the Twins envisioned over the last two seasons. He may have paved the way for Minnesota’s young core of starting pitchers to succeed from the clubhouse and leadership role, even if he won’t be pitching alongside them.
