As the Minnesota Twins enter September, there are many reasons to believe they can go on a postseason run.
The Twins continue to have one of the best pitching staffs in the American League. Their offense is starting to come alive thanks to three rookies — Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner. Even their schedule lends itself to getting hot at the right time. A six-team field means the Twins could make a run similar to the one the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies made on the way to the World Series last fall.
But all of this could be for naught if the Twins don’t learn from their recent series with the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland came into Target Field down six games in the AL Central. Even taking two out of three games would have Twins fans feeling more comfortable down the stretch.
Instead, the Guardians series emphasized several things the Twins need to work on in September if they want to make a run in October.
It started on Monday night when Minnesota lit up the sky with a series of majestic home runs. Both staffs were gassed after extra-inning contests on Sunday, and the Twins took advantage. Lewis, Wallner, and Polanco hit bombs in a 10-6 victory.
The optimistic Twins fan would point to this as a sign that they are starting to find their groove offensively. But the lineup’s issues haven’t been that they can’t hit it out of the park. Minnesota entered Wednesday’s finale with Cleveland ranked fifth with 187 home runs and rank 14th in runs scored this season. However, their inconsistency dragged them down in a weak division.
The Twins have scored three runs or less in 59 games this season. That’s 44 percent of the season, but it is even alarming when considering what has happened after Minnesota has had big games. In games where the Twins have scored five runs or more – slightly above the league average of 4.6 runs per game – they’ve come back the following night to score three or fewer runs a whopping 24 times and between four and six runs 13 times.
The counter here is that the Twins have also seven or more runs 16 times coming off a game where they’ve scored five runs or more. You could say this is a sign of the bats getting hot. However, Minnesota has struggled to put together strings of moderate production, tallying four stretches of four or more runs throughout the season. (Apr. 24-28, May 13-16, July 15-19, and July 25-29).
The feast-or-famine nature of this team showed up in the final two games with their two best pitchers on the mound. Pablo López held the Guardians to three runs over six innings. However, a run by Emilio Pagán and two shutout innings from Cole Sands kept Tuesday’s game within reach. Even with the staff doing their job, the Twins couldn’t find consistent production. They relied on solo home runs from Lewis and Michael A. Taylor, going 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in a 4-2 loss.
The problem popped up again on Wednesday when Sonny Gray allowed three hits over seven shutout innings. Tanner Bibee silenced the Twins, allowing only four hits and three walks while striking out eight batters in five innings. His the lone blemish a Jorge Polanco two-run single in the fifth inning.
The Twins didn’t score after Polanco’s solo shot. Cleveland’s bullpen combined for five shutout innings to keep the game close. They they struck against Jhoan Duran in the ninth inning.
Before we get into it, we should note that Duran should have been credited with a strikeout. Gabriel Arias swung at the wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score in the bottom of the ninth inning. However, even that reveals another issue the Twins must solve.
Minnesota’s bullpen has been an issue since the All-Star Break. However, that has amplified in recent weeks with the 12th-highest ERA (4.45) among relievers. The Twins attempted to fix the problem by acquiring Dylan Floro for Jorge López, but his 6.30 ERA since coming over hasn’t been an improvement.
To make matters worse, the usually reliable arms in the bullpen have struggled in the same timeframe. Entering Wednesday’s game, Griffin Jax’s 6.48 ERA was the third-highest on the Twins since the All-Star Break among pitchers with at least five appearances. The two pitchers ahead of him – López (6.75) and Jovani Moran (8.10) – are no longer with the major-league roster. Duran has also been shaky. Still, he remains one of the best relievers on the team with a 3.50 ERA. Although Pagán has the lowest ERA (2.11), even he has shown concerning signs. He allowed runs in back-to-back appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Twins have tried to fix this group internally, and they have options. Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland are potential starter-turned-reliever candidates down the stretch. They recently called up Kody Funderburk, who had a strong first outing. However, Funderburk allowed Kole Calhoun’s go-ahead, three-run bomb on Wednesday afternoon.
All of this could be dismissed because the Guardians aren’t pushing the Twins for the division title. However, all five American League playoff teams have more runs per game than Minnesota.
With a month to go, the Twins need to find out a way to find consistency at the plate and in the ‘pen. Otherwise, they’ll have another quick exit when the calendar turns to October.
