In the weeks leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline, everyone wanted to know what the Los Angeles Angels were going to do with Shohei Ohtani. But just as it seemed the Angels wanted to get something more than a compensatory draft pick for Ohtani, they reversed course and became buyers ahead of the deadline.
After adding Lucas Giolito, the Angels are hellbent on making at one playoff appearance with Ohtani and Mike Trout in the same lineup. But even with the trade, FanGraphs gives them a 22.7 percent chance to make the postseason and a 1.6 percent win the World Series.
Many can look at the Angels and see a desperate team. But the truth is that there are many teams that should have the same energy at the deadline – including the Minnesota Twins.
With a 73.4 percent chance to make the playoffs and 3.4 percent chance to win the World Series, the Twins are in a better spot than the Angels. At the very least, they should have a chance to end the longest postseason losing streak in the history of North American sports.
But as they approach the trade deadline, it doesn’t appear that a big move is on the way. That’s a troubling sign for a flawed team.
It starts with how the Twins built their roster. Entering Friday’s game with the Kansas City Royals, Twins starters rank first with 589 innings pitched and third in ERA (3.80). Both of these numbers could be a catalyst for a surprising postseason run, and they’re similar to what the Philadelphia Phillies did a year ago.
Using a rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Gibson, Philadelphia’s starters posted similar numbers to this year’s Twins, with a 3.80 ERA and ranking fifth with 896.2 inning pitched. Minnesota’s pitching might be a better strength this year than what the Phillies had last season. However, it was a baseline that convinced Philadelphia to make a marginal at the trade deadline by adding Brandon Marsh and Noah Syndergaard from the Angels.
Marsh became a key contributor for Philadelphia’s stretch run after hitting just .226/.284/.353 with eight homers and 37 RBI in 93 games with the Angels last season. After hitting .288/.319/.455 with three homers and 15 RBI in 41 games for the Phillies down the stretch, Marsh cooled off in the postseason. Still, he smashed a three-run homer in the decisive game of their series with the Atlanta Braves.
Syndergaard also provided depth on the mound for the Phillies, going 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA after coming over in the deal. His playoff performance wasn’t electric, allowing three runs in 8.1 innings, but it was enough to allow the Phillies to upset the Braves in the NLDS, defeat the San Diego Padres in the NLCS and take the Houston Astros to six games in the World Series.
All the time, the Phillies didn’t have a shot at winning the World Series until they were in it. But it didn’t stop them from making moves at the deadline, which is something the Twins should be paying attention to.
The Twins have the pitching, but they need a little bit of help to get them over the top. Their bullpen combination of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán has been solid at the end of games. However, Jax and relievers have worn down because Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been able to break open games.
The Twins offense has picked it up recently, averaging 5.9 runs in 13 games since the All-Star break. But there are still warning signs that it could be mirage.
Strikeouts have been a problem for the Twins and that’s continued since the break. Already on pace to smash the 2021 Chicago Cubs’ record of 1,596 strikeouts in a season, Minnesota has struck out an average of 12.1 times per game since the All-Star Break. The Twins have also struggled against left-handed pitching, hitting just .226 and posting a .702 OPS against southpaws since the break.
The Twins can fix these flaws with a trade between the margins at the deadline. But with just four days to go, Minnesota’s rallying cry seems to be that reinforcements are coming. The Twins have been hit by injuries this season, and it has particularly affected the bullpen. José De León was becoming a reliable arm until he suffered an elbow injury in Detroit, and Brock Stewart was having a renaissance but ended up on the injured list last month.
Minnesota can also rely on Caleb Thielbar‘s return, but oblique injuries can linger. With Thielbar already suffering one setback after a return from an oblique injury, he could aggravate it again, leaving a hole in the Twins bullpen.
There’s also a sense that returning players could also boost Minnesota’s lineup. Royce Lewis is rehabbing from his oblique injury and the Twins activated Jorge Polanco from the injured list on Friday and are planning on using him at third base. A former All-Star, Polanco has an excellent track record, but he also hasn’t been healthy in a full calendar year. And we shouldn’t take Lewis’ return for granted. He’s spent more time on the injured list than on the field over the past three seasons.
Any of these players could provide an impact down the stretch. However, they were also part of a team that suffered a deep lull in late May and all of June. The Twins need is some fresh blood, and diving into the trade market is the way to get it.
There’s a chance that the Twins could be reluctant to do this after what happened at last year’s deadline. Jorge López and Tyler Mahle were supposed to fill needs and had the added benefit of team control. However, those deals will become more lopsided as time goes on.
With Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand on their way to long careers in MLB and Yennier Cano becoming the best reliever in baseball, the Twins may be more reluctant to move on from prospects – especially if they remain a longshot to win it all.
There are some people who might criticize the Angels for mortgaging their future for a playoff appearance. However, the Twins should have similar goals.
Just as Los Angeles hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2009, the Twins haven’t won a playoff game since 2004. Everyone is tired of hearing about the 18-game postseason losing streak. Going all-in with a few marginal moves could be worth the cost of just one playoff victory in October.
