Since moving to the Twin Cities in 1961, the Minnesota Twins have had trouble developing pitching. Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven, and Johan Santana headline some special pitchers in Twins history but they have typically had better luck with pitchers. Over the last 20 years, they have been unable to build a deep pitching pipeline.
The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine after the 2016 season to completely remodel the way the team developed pitching. It wasn’t an easy turnaround. In 2017, Minnesota’s 7.9 K/9 strikeouts was 29th in baseball, and their 92.4 MPH average fastball was last. Trade, free agent signings, and internal development have pushed the Twins pitching to some of the league’s best. Their 9.67 K/9 in 2023 was the best in baseball. Their 3.87 team ERA was top-three in the American League. Minnesota’s pitching pipeline is starting to manifest in the majors.
The Twins showcased that their pitching has turned a corner in the postseason. Twins pitching posted a 3.40 ERA with a 9.51 K/9 in six postseason games. Those numbers are middle of the pack among this year’s playoff teams. Still, the Twins wouldn’t have broken their maligned 18-game playoff losing streak and 21-year postseason series losing streak if their pitching didn’t hold the Toronto Blue Jays to only one run over two games.
Changing Minnesota’s pitching infrastructure required some player turnover, and they still haven’t developed a bona fide ace. And some fans will argue that trading for arms like Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, and others isn’t a true sign of pitching development.
However, Ryan mostly threw fastballs with the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Twins developed him into a No. 3 starter on a good team. He was also the Opening Day starter in 2022. Gray had a league-best 2.79 ERA, and his 184 innings this year were the highest for him in a season since 2015. Meada was a Cy Young runner-up in the 60-game 2020 season with a 2.70 ERA in 66.2 innings that year. He pitched well this season after returning from Tommy John Surgery in 2021 with a 3.36 ERA since mid-June.
López may be exhibit A for Minnesota’s pitching development. He went from a No. 3 starter in Miami to an ace who finished second in the AL with 234 strikeouts. The Twins tweaked his pitch arsenal by adding a sweeper and increasing his velocity. Not every pitcher has been a success story, but pitching development certainly helped these guys reach their full potential in 2023.
Pitchers in the Terry Ryan era got hitters out by pitching to contact and trying to induce low exit velocity. But they struggled to retire the best batters in the league.. There are two ways teams try to pitch in the postseason; strikeouts and low exit velocity. It sounds new-age, but it’s as simple as preventing opposing hitters from making hard contact. Pitching to contact works against a wide spectrum of talent in a 162-game marathon. In the postseason, good hitters too often found ways to punish mistakes.
Postseason teams find a way to exploit a team’s pitching weaknesses. Pitching to contact was the dominant philosophy in the Twins organization under Ryan. Take the 2010 Twins, for example. They owned a 3.95 team ERA which was 11th best in baseball. The Twins 6.5 K/9 was 25th in the league, only above teams that were nowhere near postseason that year. And Minnesota’s 92.1 MPH average fastball velocity pitchers ranked 19th.
When the Twins ran into a New York Yankees lineup that featured Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, their pitching allowed 17 runs in three games. The Yankees promptly swept the Twins in the ALDS. For context, the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants 8.2 K/9 and 1331 total strikeouts were both far and away best in baseball.
There are more ways to gauge postseason success other than strikeouts alone. However, teams that consistently made deep playoff runs in the last decade are capable of generating swing-and-misses at a high rate rather than hoping good hitters hit the ball weakly at fielders.
A dominant pitching staff kept the Twins alive after an underwhelming first half of the 2023 season, especially the starting pitching. However, Minnesota’s bullpen was lacking through most of the year, with a 3.95 bullpen ERA that was 15th in baseball. Jhoan Duran was a starting pitcher the Twins acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade while he was in A-ball. He highlighted a talented back end of the bullpen that lacked the depth the rotation did, which would be crucial in playoff games.
So the Twins leaned into that pitching depth. Louie Varland moved from being a depth pitcher in the rotation to a valuable bullpen arm down the stretch. Same with Maeda. Minnesota acquired Chris Paddack for reliever Taylor Rogers in 2022, and returned from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last April.
Immediately upon joining the bullpen, Paddack reached a career-high 95 MPH average on his fastball, with a 15 percent increase in whiff percentage from a year ago. In the postseason, Paddack didn’t allow a run in 3.2 innings while recording six strikeouts. Paddack showcased enough to make Twins fans giddy about his chances to slot into next year’s starting rotation as another potential Minnesota pitching success story.
Rocco Baldelli turned the Twins final game of the postseason into a bullpen game, removing Ryan after two innings. Using six different relievers, the bullpen held the Astros to only a pair of runs in the final 7 innings. It kept the game close even though the lineup wasn’t able to get runs across to support their pitching. Minnesota’s pitching wasn’t perfect this postseason, largely due to their playoff-worst five home runs allowed as a bullpen. However, their relievers were still largely impactful overall.
Every Division Series matchup except for Minnesota’s was an upset. At first glance, it seems odd. But looking deeper, the teams with the worst pitching didn’t advance. The Baltimore Orioles stood no chance against the Texas Rangers because their starting pitching was lackluster and decimated by injuries, allowing 21 runs in the three games. Poor starting pitching did the Los Angeles Dodgers in after their starting pitching surrendered 13 of the team’s 19 total runs allowed in the NLDS. Dodgers starters only threw 4.2 innings combined in their three games against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Teams need power hitting and power pitching to win. In 2019, the Twins won 101 games and set the single-season home run record. But despite their regular-season success, the Yankees swept them in three games after Minnesota’s pitching allowed 23 runs in three games..
Not every Twins pitcher is guaranteed to come back for 2024. Gray, Maeda, and Tyler Mahle are all impending free agents. That’s where the pitching pipeline will also be crucial in replacing major league pitching that leaves in free agency. Minnesota took David Festa in the 13th round out of Seton Hall in 2021, and they developed him into the No. 9 spot on the prospect rankings. He could be a solid depth option for the Twins next season. Matt Canterino (No. 18) has battled injuries, but they could also add him to their pitching staff next year. There are more options in free agency, trades, or within the organization. Minnesota is getting increasingly better at developing pitching, which only helps them bring in and develop talent.
Dominant pitching almost always guide teams that win in the postseason. The roots of Minnesota’s pitching development sprang up from the ground in 2023, and they’re benefitting from it now. Despite it not being fully homegrown, pitching is now a strength of theirs. Even though the Houston Astros eliminated the Twins from the playoffs, Minnesota’s effective pitching over the last two weeks showed that they are capable of going deeper into October.
