While the Minnesota Twins hit it big by jumping to the fifth pick in this year’s amateur draft, their decision-making with that selection put them in familiar territory. They selected prep star Walker Jenkins, who was the consensus best player available in a draft class that was highlighted by five prodigious players. Minnesota’s acquisition of arguably the best high school player in the country was a welcome development. However, Jenkins jumps into a long line of high-ceiling outfielders the Twins have taken with their first pick over the last few decades.
So how does Jenkins compare?
The club has mostly been successful with these picks, with a lot of variation between the prospects. Some went on to be All-Stars in the big leagues; others failed to reach the game’s highest level. Will Jenkins find himself grouped with the former, the latter, or somewhere in between? While each player in this list ended up being very different stylistically, they all shared something in common aside from their draft positions. They all fostered immense hope for Twins faithful.
Jenkins is bound to debut in virtually every Top-50 prospect ranking as soon as possible. Scouts laud his smooth, left-handed swing and enormous raw power. Many believe he will be a solid to above-average corner outfielder as he develops.
“Gatorade’s North Carolina player of the year in both 2022 and 2023, Jenkins is built to hit for power with a strong 6-foot-3 frame and a quick left-handed stroke,” said MLB Pipeline in their first official write-up for the newly-signed Twins prospect. “He already shows the ability to turn on quality fastballs and drive them out of the park to right field, and his pop extends to the opposite field as well.”
That’s a great place to start for a bat-first prospect, but there will surely be aspects of his game that need refinement, which is to be expected for an 18-year-old. In particular, Jenkins will need to work on his ability to hit for average. He’ll also need to work on maintaining speed, which has already started to diminish slightly as he developed strength and size.
“He’s going to add weight and fill out, which will push him to right field,” said Propsects Live in their Midseason Top-100 prospect list, where they ranked Jenkins as the 50th-best prospect in the game. “His plus arm will play there, though, and he should be just fine defensively.”
The All-Stars
While it’s certainly too early to group Jenkins automatically with the best players on this list, that will surely be the hope as his career progresses. Torii Hunter is the biggest name on this list. He made five All-Star appearances, won two Silver Slugger awards and was awarded an incredible nine Gold Gloves thanks to his incredible defense. His 50.7 WAR suggest he deserves heavy consideration for the MLB Hall of Fame, but that looks unlikely based on his recent vote totals.
Michael Cuddyer and Byron Buxton each made an All-Star appearance as a member of the Twins. Cuddyer got another nod with the Colorado Rockies later on and the latter still hoping to get another chance in the mid-summer classic. If Jenkins can achieve similar success to either of these two, it’s a clear win for Minnesota’s scouting and development staff. Cuddyer accrued 17.3 bWAR in his career after breaking out in 2004, his first season as a regular. He averaged a .283/.351/.476 (.826 OPS) slash line in his prime years between 2006 and 2014. Interestingly enough, Cuddyer coached Jenkins with the USA 18U National Team, and he surely gave Minnesota’s brass plenty of information as this year’s draft approached.
It’s hard to imagine Jenkins matching Buxton’s defensive prowess and his above-average speed both in the field and on the basepaths. But if his bat can get anywhere near Byron’s .244/.308/.526 (.834 OPS) clip that he’s shown since 2019, it would be extremely encouraging.
The Solid Regulars
Sure, the hope should be for Jenkins to stand out when he debuts in the big leagues, but the next step down isn’t totally worthless. The Twins have drafted a handful of high school outfielders with their first pick who may not have been among the league’s best, but they were valuable enough to have lengthy careers with multiple years as starting-caliber players at the game’s highest level.
Guys like Denard Span, Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks all stuck around the league for a handful of years, even though they never had an All-Star nod (or at least haven’t yet, in Hicks’ case). We can also place Alex Kirilloff in this group. But he’s certainly on his way to gaining more clout with his bat, so the hope would be for him to eventually graduate to becoming an All-Star.
Believe it or not, Span had a higher WAR than Cuddyer and Buxton to this point, with a whopping 27.9 according to Baseball Reference. That’s a lot of production and stellar defense for a player that never got the proper appreciation. He had a career line of .281/.347/.398 (.745 OPS), which is solid, if unspectacular. But he was a great defender and a fantastic base runner, which explains his high WAR.
Revere was a fan-favorite player, and won the Twins’ Minor League Player of the Year in back-to-back years. However, the near-complete absence of power in his bat, and a noodle arm in center field was too much to extend his career beyond his age-29 season in 2017. He was lightning-quick with excellent range in the field, though, accruing 7.9 WAR in his career.
Like Kirilloff, Hicks is still in the league, which makes it hard to paint a complete picture. From a scouting standpoint, he looks like he could be an apt comparison to Jenkins. He had a large-frame with lots of projectable growth, and he showed flashes of power in his bat (107 career homers) and a cannon for an arm. Jenkins isn’t a switch hitter like Hicks, but his tools are reminiscent of the 2008 first-rounder.
Health has been the only detractor for Kirilloff, 25, in his three-year career. His bat is finally coming around at the MLB level, and he has a strong prospect pedigree that suggests more improvement could be coming as he separates himself from his wrist surgery in 2022. With better health (*furiously knocks on wood*), Kirilloff’s billing as a top-prospect that debuted at age-23 would be a welcome outcome for Jenkins, to say nothing of his career after that point.
The Burnout
We don’t need to do a deep dive, but it would be devastatingly disappointing for the Twins to move up via draft lottery and pick a prodigy who would never make it to the big leagues a la B.J. Garbe.
