The Minnesota Twins starting rotation has carried the team, keeping them in first place in the American League Central. With all the highs and lows that have led them to a 40-39 record as they near the official halfway point of the season, the starters and relievers will face their most significant challenges against the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles.
These two teams are filled with all-star caliber talents throughout their lineups. Atlanta’s starting nine can practically fill the all-star roster as their offense leads Major League Baseball in home runs (139), OBP (.341), SLG (.484), and OPS (.825).
The Orioles came out of nowhere with their youthful lineup last year. This season, they have proven to be real contenders, challenging the Tampa Bay Rays’ first-place hold on the AL East.
The Twins still hold the third-best team ERA in baseball at 3.66, but these offenses are on another level.
Minnesota will play the Braves first. The Twins currently have Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda scheduled to start their three games in Atlanta.
Atlanta has five players with an OPS north of .900 over the last two weeks: Ronald Acuna Jr. (.903), Ozzie Albies (.998), Michael Harris II (1.101), Matt Olson (1.128), and old friend Eddie Rosario (1.295). As daunting as these numbers are, the Braves are coming off an exhaustive three-game series in Cincinnati that saw each game decided by a run, with no game having fewer than six runs from each team.
The high-scoring affairs over three games may have left some Braves hitters feeling fatigued. It’s something that a struggling Gray will have to take advantage of on Monday.
Gray’s performances on the mound haven’t been the same since April. His ERA over the last two months has remained just below 4.00. He has only lasted more than six innings in a game once in that time frame, throwing 6⅔ innings against the Cleveland Guardians on June 3. Target Field has been friendlier to Gray this season, but his last road start in Toronto began to balance out those numbers, bringing his road ERA to 3.00 on the year with only two walks allowed.
Gray’s start against the Braves to begin the series will be a test of where he’s at in his season. Will he return to being a top AL Cy Young candidate? Or trend further downward, and maybe miss out on an all-star selection?
Ryan has been trending in the opposite direction of Gray lately. He just threw Minnesota’s first nine-inning complete game shutout since 2019 in his last start, and he didn’t allow a single walk. Ryan’s confidence was evident that start, too, with the home crowd cheering him on. Now he’ll have the national spotlight on him Tuesday against the Braves because Atlanta-based Turner Broadcasting System (TBS) will be airing the game.
Then there’s Maeda, who will be making only his second start since returning from the injured list. Maeda threw five solid innings against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night, but the Braves are the total opposite of Detroit, as the Tigers only have a team OPS of .661 on the season, which puts them second to last in baseball ahead of only the Oakland Athletics at .650. It’ll be a true test to see what he still has in his arm, both in command and getting hitters out.
The atmosphere against a team that was in the World Series two years ago could provide the Twins with the closest playoff feeling they’ve had in games this year. Per ESPN, Atlanta has the sixth-highest average number of fans attending games this year (33,316). With strong pitching matchups and Minnesota’s offense looking like they’re finally finding their footing, the three games there could turn out to be much-watch baseball.
After the Atlanta series, Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Gray are scheduled to pitch in Baltimore. Before welcoming Minnesota to town, the Orioles will play a three-game series against Cincinnati, the hottest team in baseball
The Orioles just took two out of three against the slumping Seattle Mariners. While their offense did not blow up against the Mariners’ pitching, they still teed off against some of their better starters in Bobby Miller (6 H, 3 R, 3 BB in 4 ⅓ innings on Saturday) and George Kirby (6 H, 3 R, 1 BB in 6 ⅓ innings on Sunday).
Minnesota has a 25-8 record against Baltimore since 2017. However, this current inception of the Orioles has proven to be unlike any other they’ve faced since then.
For starters, their pitching is the best it’s been since 2017.
While their team ERA still sits high at 4.26, it’s good enough to rank 17th-best in the league. Their two most reliable starters are former members of the Twins organization, Kyle Gibson and Tyler Wells.
The Twins lost, Wells, a 15th-round draft pick of the Twins in 2016 to the Orioles in the 2021-22 Rule 5 draft. Since then, he’s turned himself into their best starter, leading the team in ERA (3.22), WHIP (0.89), and strikeouts (88).
Gibson isn’t having an awful first season in Baltimore by any means. He’s had an average year for Gibson standards, with a 4.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts in 92 innings pitched, which leads the team. He’s become a quality, middle-of-the-rotation innings eater for them.
Now, while the Twins’ offense can likely keep their hot streak going against the O’s, Baltimore’s hitters have been doing much better. They’re led by a young quartet of hitters Adley Rutschman, Austin Hayes, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander. These four, along with rookie Gunnar Henderson and veteran infielder Adam Fraizer, have been a large reason for the O’s success. They currently lead the season series against Tampa with a 3-2 record against them.
The upside for the Twins? Many of these young hitters don’t have much or any plate appearances against their three projected starters in this series. However, that can also come with some downsides too. There’s no predicting how these two series will play out for the Twins in their pitching. However, their success or lack of it could set the tone for how this team will perform in the second half of the year.
