For years, Max Kepler returned seasons of low average, low strikeout percentage (K%), above-average walks, and an overall league-average bat. The juiced ball fueled his breakout in 2019, and an absurd pull rate vaulted his status from “unproven” to “exciting.” Of course, the springy nature of that year’s baseball was unbeknownst to us. However, there were some suspicions that something was going on. As far as we knew, Kepler had broken out.
Kepler achieved a career-high 122 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) in 2019 but produced 109, 97, and 95 in each of the following respective years. But Kepler has looked markedly better since his critical baserunning mistake on June 7. He’s produced 109 wRC+ for the season, and that number has reached 136 wRC+ since June 8th.
In the 54 games he’s played since that date, he’s hit .273/.326/.541 with 13 homers. It’s no surprise to see such a grand home run total; Kepler has been obliterating fly balls with an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph on such hit types. Eclipsing 90 mph was a massively consequential goal four years ago because some people believed that leveling up from his typical 87-89 mph numbers to 90+ was going to fuel a breakout.
The low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that fans have become accustomed to from Kepler stems from two things: weakly hit pulled grounders and fly balls that far too often fell short of the seats. Kepler looks legit now that he’s alleviated much of that second issue without extra help from the baseballs he’s hitting.
Kepler’s swing is almost entirely geared for pull power. It’s what helped him, along with the special baseballs, to break out in 2019. Like years past, he’s executed swings down and in exceptionally well. In fact, his weighted on-base average (wOBA) down-and-in is better than even pitches over the heart of the plate (.476 down-and-in versus .401 middle-middle).
As a side note, although potentially incredibly important, Kepler has improved dramatically in the up-and-middle zone. 2023 is his first season with a wOBA above .244. I will refrain from making any conclusions, but it’s possible Kepler has followed Alex Kirilloff’s suit. I wrote about Kirilloff’s recent “ready at release” swing change, potentially helping his timing. Kepler might have figured his own timing out, as he seems to have corrected a longstanding issue in that up-and-middle part of the zone.
A deeper look into the same wOBA zones, except only against four-seam fastballs, tells the same story. The following graphs visualize Kepler’s inability to hit high heat. Starting with 2018, they go sequentially.
Even in 2019, Kepler struggled in that zone.
The shortened 2020 season does not have enough data to paint a complete picture.
Like 2020, 2023 does not have a sufficient amount of data to make any sort of final statement. It will be interesting to see how things change or remain the same for the rest of the season. But right now Kepler has improved dramatically against fastballs in the up and middle part of the zone.
Kepler’s second major issue, weakly hit pulled grounders, likely arise from changeups and other “slow balls.” Constantly ready to pull a fastball into the seats, Kepler exposes himself to a phenomenon rampant in lefties: rolling over. The offspeed nature of a changeup does not match the in-speed nature of the batter’s swing. Even being just slightly early can cause the bat to travel down its path for too long, and a swing path with a noticeable positive attack angle (swinging upwards) will allow the “drop” characteristic of the changeup to get under the bat, resulting in a weakly hit and pulled grounder.
That was an even more prominent issue for Kepler in 2018, although it’s been present his whole career. The data is arduous to navigate, but we can see roughly how prevalent this issue is each year. For the first time since 2016, Kepler is hitting under 40% of changeups as grounders. He’s still pulling about two-thirds of his grounders, though it would be more useful to know how often he’s pulling changeups. Regardless, it appears that the foundation he’s built is largely the same. Pitchers should be wary of his intent to attack stuff down and in, though the negative results of his pull-heavy swing/approach have remained.
A third issue, unrelated to the grounders and fly balls that tank his BABIP, also exists. As a lefty, Kepler generally struggles against lefty pitchers. Amazingly, he was actually better against lefties in 2018 and 2019, at least in terms of wRC+. But 2020, 2021, and to a lesser extent 2022 were all poor seasons for Kepler against lefties. Kepler’s 7 (!), 45, and 98 wRC+ marks in his last three seasons paint him as a poor hitter against lefties.
Even when considering he saw fewer PAs against lefties in an effort to mitigate the classic lefty-lefty platoon disadvantage, meaning he likely saw only the worst lefties, Kepler did not build upon the 103 and 130 wRC+ of 2018 and 2019. However, 2023 has seen a near return to those numbers. Contributing 103 wRC+ against lefties this season, Kepler has been able to provide near-everyday value in the lineup.
There are bits of Kepler that have remained the same, and there are bits that have changed. If he continues hitting fly balls at 90+mph on average, he will be a perennial All-Star candidate. However, he’s been described as an “average” offensive contributor for most of his career. From the wRC+ numbers that hover around 100 to the .700 OPS he regularly finishes with, Kepler has had a hard time distinguishing himself.
Curiously enough, he’s long had elite if only borderline elite peripheral stats. Kepler is 6’4” and listed at a lean 205 pounds. He is simply able to achieve greater leverage and higher bat speed than his less physically gifted peers. The one caveat that height has in baseball is that taller players are expected to strike out more often. He’s displayed prodigious power throughout his career, having max exit velocities as high as the 98th percentile and never lower than 68th.
Players with that level of power don’t often have the same contact ability that Kepler has. In each of the past four seasons, he’s had a Contact Ability near or above the 70th percentile. Contact Ability, created by PitcherList, uses context from all other swings at similar pitches. Sometimes, it may be better for a player not to swing at a pitch in the first place, but there is something to be said about a player being able to make contact on a pitch where others have missed.
The following graphs illustrate Kepler’s ability to make contact. These are rolling graphs, perfect for in-season investigations to be alerted to changes in a player’s skills. They also show season averages in each statistic, with the ebbs and flows of the season easily depicted.
In Kepler’s case, he makes contact in the zone, where it benefits him most. On average, MLB batters make contact in the zone 82% of the time, while Kepler vastly outperforms the average with his 87.3% career zone contact rate. MLB batters make contact when chasing 58% of the time, while Kepler has connected on chase pitches 58.1% in his career.
The same conclusion can be made when looking at his whiff rates. Kepler has been 57th percentile or better in every season of his career, frequently finishing 75th percentile or higher.
When he isn’t making contact, he correctly takes pitches. Evidenced by his career 10% walk rate, Kepler has a firm grasp of the strike zone. PitcherList’s Strikezone Judgement statistic compounds this knowledge. Strikezone Judgement is exactly as it sounds. When a batter takes a pitch for a ball, he is considered “correct.” When a batter takes a pitch that is a strike, he is considered “incorrect.”
Of course, this assumes that every pitch that lands in the strike zone is something a batter would want to swing at. For whatever reason, a batter may be aware a pitch coming in will land for a strike but decides to take in hopes he will see a more desirable pitch in the near future. Batters that swing on the first pitch knowing that 62% of the first pitches are strikes will be awarded for their “Strikezone Judgment” when their swing has more to do with jumping on an opportunity.
Keeping those conditions in mind, Kepler still has remarkable Strikezone Judgement. Similar to his Contact Ability, he has finished in at least the 70th percentile in Strikezone Judgement. Most years, he’s among the best with 90th+ percentile finishes. The same kind of rolling graphs taken from PitcherList to show Contact Ability are below with Kepler’s Strikezone Judgement.
On top of Kepler’s keen eye, he’s also adept at not chasing. Once again, Baseball Savant shows this as another of his consistently above-average if not elite traits. He struggled (relatively) to lay off pitches when he first reached the majors in 2016 and 2017, but only his aggressive approach in the 2019 season has seen him lower than 66th percentile in chase rate.
Based on all of these skills, Kepler looks like a fantastic player. Kepler’s incredible eye, a knack for contact, and flashes of power have tantalized the masses for years. There’s one major puzzle piece missing, but apparently finishing the puzzle is the hardest part. Hot stretches like the one he’s been on for nearly two months are snapshots of what things would be like should the increased fly ball authority slides into place.
