For years, Minnesota Twins fans have spent endless hours complaining about how badly the team needed starting pitching to win more games. Now, the opposite is beginning to look like the case at to start of the 2023 season. In a role reversal, the offense appears lackluster behind a great top of rotation that features Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan.
However, last season’s streaky and inconsistent hitting has seemingly carried over to this year. The lineup cards have been more consistent this year, with the same players hitting in relatively the same position on a daily basis. A more consistent lineup has still seemed to prove inconsistent hitting with this group of Twins hitters as they seem to explode in wins but swing and miss in every loss.
The Twins have the worst offense in baseball, even though they have one of the better records in the American League.
Per Stathead, the Twins are the definition of league-average at the plate in their wins this season. They currently rank as a league-average offense in batting average .281 (16th), slugging percentage .491 (13th), OPS .840 (16th), and OPS+ 97 (16th).
But in the games they lose, the Twins are the worst offense in baseball. In their six losses, Minnesota has a .152/.222/.217 team triple-slash line with a .439 OPS in their nine losses. To make matters worse, their batting average on balls in play is .186. The Texas Rangers are the only other team with a team BABIP below the Mendoza line in their losses this year.
The numbers aren’t much prettier for individual hitters in the games Minnesota has lost, either. Donovan Solano has the best triple slash line (.208/.269/.250 with a .519 OPS) in eight of their nine losses on the season. For context, Joey Gallo has a .368/.429/1.053 triple slash with a 1.481 OPS in six of Minnesota’s 11 wins on the year.
Has there been a common factor that explains why Minnesota’s offense is so different in wins and losses? Not entirely, but it’s a small sample size of 20 games. Yes, they are the only team that has suffered multiple complete-game shutouts after ace starters Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara held them scoreless for nine innings.
The Twins managed only three hits and a walk against Alcantara in Miami. They went 3 for 29 as a team, hitting .103 against him on April 4. Minnesota only had two hits and a walk against Cole in the Bronx, going 2 for 27 as a team, hitting .074 against him on April 16. Those two games alone are a major contributor to their Jekyll and Hyde offensive numbers, but it’s not the only reason.
In their losses, the Twins have only managed to score more than three runs twice. Those two games were the two games they lost to the Boston Red Sox.
What will it take for the Twins to overcome this bad image with their hitting? A 10-game homestand starting off against one of the worst teams in baseball, the 6-13 Washington Nationals, may still be a good spark. The Nationals have a league-average team ERA on the season (4.37). But they’re bottom third in the league with a .252 opponents batting average and have the seventh-worst team FIP in the league (4.92).
This Twins lineup has shown they’re capable of hitting well. But the team can’t win if they sporadically go dark.
