The Green Bay Packers’ season has been officially over for a couple of weeks now, which means it’s time to get the ball rolling on the fanbase and media’s third-annual Aaron Rodgers Speculation Frenzy. It’s become a special tradition where just a few words spoken on The Pat McAfee Show result in sound bytes, tweet storms, and a proliferation of edits featuring the future Hall of Famer in various teams’ uniforms.
Some news about where this offseason’s saga could go made the rounds earlier this week. Most notably, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported, albeit with numerous qualifiers, that the Packers may consider a trade sending Rodgers to the AFC. That speculation has only intensified with the news that former Packers OC and Rodgers whisperer Nathaniel Hackett is joining the New York Jets.
However, it’s very difficult to imagine that the crux of the resolution we will see in the coming months will not come largely, if not entirely, from the desires of the man who has led the franchise for nearly two decades. Be it retirement, a return to Titletown, or a journey into the unknown, we are likely at least one ayahuasca trip away from any sort of decision.
Rodgers’ illustrious career has been highlighted by four MVP awards and a Super Bowl ring. He will be remembered as one of history’s most talented quarterbacks, yet will remain absent from any sort of G.O.A.T. debates alongside Tom Brady. Rodgers has impeccable talent and individual achievements. He’s led many epic fourth-quarter comebacks. But he has only led the Packers to the Big Game once and lost all four of his conference championship appearances since 2010.
In parallel universes where Brandon Bostick vacuumed up onside kicks with ease, Kevin King could keep Scotty Miller in front of him, or, most significantly, the San Francisco 49ers didn’t exist, Rodgers might just be the best ever to do it. In our universe, however, a lack of titles looms over his otherwise earth-shattering legacy.
He doesn’t care about the money or, at least, he “could definitely walk away from it.” As he articulated in his final presser of the season, he’s “made a ton of it.” He’s emphasized the importance of contending if he does indeed return and the importance of maintaining long-time teammates and friends like Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, and Marcedes Lewis. Having to find the money for those guys, which I don’t think the team is too keen on doing, would box them into relying on second-year jumps from guys like Christian Watson and Quay Walker. Watson finished strong, and Walker had an outstanding rookie year when he was at a safe distance from opposing staff members. Suddenly, they would have to be the difference between a Super Bowl and what 2022 turned out to be.
There’s a solution here that could potentially make everyone except Jordan Love extremely happy. Rodgers walks away from a large chunk of money without letting go of the opportunity to make one last serious run. The Packers could keep Aaron Jones, re-sign as many of Rodgers’ relatively cheap friends as possible, maintain special-teams breakout Keisean Nixon, and have room in the building for a big move or two. The Arizona Cardinals are widely expected to trade star wideout DeAndre Hopkins this spring, and the Packers would become instant contenders in his market with that financial flexibility.
A star quarterback taking a pay cut is just the right amount of precedented for this to make perfect sense. Brady, whose stardom (and that of his ex-wife) had earned his family generational wealth long before completing his stairway to seven rings, has consistently signed deals below his market value to give the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers enough salary cap flexibility to build an elite supporting cast around him. In contrast, Rodgers’ supporting casts have unequivocally held him back from more January success, most notably on the defensive side of the ball. In 2017, Matt Ryan hung 44 points on a Ladarius Gunter-led secondary in what is remembered as basically a wasted conference championship appearance.
On Sunday, this season’s final four will battle it out. Three feature quarterbacks on rookie contracts with elite, expensive supporting casts around them, emphasizing the value of that extra cap space in shaping a contender. Of course, this makes it all the more comical that Love’s rookie contract is almost up. But it paints an interesting picture of what a man like Rodgers, who ostensibly values a championship more than the massive wealth he already has, can open up for himself if he does decide to return.
Rodgers hinted at a restructure to his current contract on Tuesday, saying “there would have to be some adjustments” to his impending cap hit. Could a pay cut and the all-in approach that would follow be on the table for the four-time MVP? A lot of people are going to say no. But by threading the needle between his aforementioned statements about the importance of contention and the lack of importance of money, it’s a dream scenario for the Packers that would make all the sense in the world as it relates to an exultant return to relevance in 2023 — for both parties.
