This is a crossroads game for the Green Bay Packers. We’ll learn a lot about this team based on its performance tonight in Sin City.
Despite the line, which favors the Las Vegas Raiders by two points, this is a game the Packers should win. They’ve had 11 days to lick their wounds and regroup after an embarrassing performance against the Detroit Lions. They’ve gotten considerably healthier. If the Packers are serious about challenging for a playoff spot, this is a game they absolutely have to win.
There are a lot of intangibles working in Green Bay’s favor. They’re 4-0 under Matt LaFleur in games leading into the bye. The Packers have also won five straight Monday night games and beaten the Raiders eight straight times. And we all know this will feel nothing like a road game, with tens of thousands of Cheeseheads on hand, after a weekend of enjoying free alcohol and never-ending buffets.
Of course, all of that doesn’t matter once they start playing the game. If the Pack is going to be leaving Las Vegas with a win, the defense will likely be the reason why. The Raiders’ offense has yet to figure out how to move the ball on the ground, with Josh Jacobs averaging less than three yards per carry after leading the league in rushing last season. They look at this matchup as a chance to turn the corner — and who can blame them?
Joe Barry’s unit has yet to prove it can stop the run, playing a scheme more concerned about giving up big plays than allowing teams to churn chunks of yards on the ground. The continued absence of linebacker De’Vondre Campbell won’t help matters — there’s a sizeable drop-off to the undersized O.J. McDuffie. They’ll need to deal with Jacobs as a receiver, too; he’s caught 18 passes in four games, including eight last week.
If the Pack allows Jacobs to cook on the ground, it opens everything up for Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s back after missing a game with a concussion. Jimmy G feasts on play-action and when he has a clean pocket, but Garoppolo can be an interception machine under duress. He’s tied for the league lead in picks despite playing only three games. Green Bay must do an excellent job on early downs to put him in passing situations, where he’ll likely throw a few up for grabs.
Of course, Davante Adams vs. Jaire Alexander is the matchup everyone’s waiting for, both of whom come into this game banged up and questionable on the injury report. I can’t imagine either player missing this one after lining up against each other for years on the practice field. How much the Packers decide to double Adams will be something to watch, as that will open up one-on-one opportunities for guys like Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, and their two tight ends.
The Raiders defense is putrid, with one superstar and not much else going for it. If the Packers can’t get their running game against this unit, I don’t know what to tell you. Like the Pack, they reside near the bottom of the rankings. Though Aaron Jones remains listed as questionable with the hammy, this feels like his 2023 coming-out party. Of course, with the bye coming next week, they could go the conservative route and continue to limit his touches to give him a couple more weeks to get closer to 100%. But he’s been practicing, and AJ Dillon has done nothing to assure the team that he is a capable replacement. My guess is they turn Jones loose tonight.
If they continue to struggle on the ground, it opens the door for Maxx Crosby to continue to be a one-man wrecking crew. He leads the league in pressures, and they’ll use him like the Lions used Aiden Hutchinson, moving him all over the place to keep the Pack guessing. A productive running game will also open things up for Jordan Love, who will have a full complement of weapons at his disposal, with Christian Watson off the injury report and Luke Musgrave back from a concussion.
The Raiders’ cornerback group is a disaster. Their best guy, Nate Hobbs, is out, and the two other guys are questionable. Even if they play, their performance has been beyond questionable this season, and Marcus Peters is still trying to give it a go. Love should be able to find guys open — I see Watson and Musgrave having big nights.
We also get the Carlson family reunion tonight, with brothers Daniel and Anders facing off for the first time. It doesn’t quite have the juice of the Kelce brothers meeting in the Super Bowl. But if the teams find themselves exchanging field goals, we’ll see if the younger brother is up to the task. He’s been perfect so far this season.
It goes without saying that turnovers could be the difference tonight, and the Raiders are at the bottom of the league with a -9 differential. They’ve thrown seven picks and intercepted just one pass all season.
I say the Pack’s defense takes one to the house tonight. They finally get their running game going, and Matt LaFleur remains perfect on Monday nights and heading into the bye.
Packers 27
Raiders 20
