Anyone who watched the Green Bay Packers in 2022 knows that they struggled to defend the run. They ended up 31st in the league in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) versus their opponents’ rushing game. As a reminder, DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every play to a historical average outcome based on the situation. However, the Packers defense wasn’t all bad, and they were ninth in the league in passing DVOA. But opponents knew the Packers struggled against the run and took advantage of it.
Ultimately, if the Packers defense wants to be successful in 2023, the starting point will be in the trenches and posing a more stout run defense. And Devonte Wyatt may be the player who could have the most impact on that outcome.
Devonte Wyatt Scouting Report
Wyatt showed a lot of promise coming out of the University of Georgia in 2021. He tested as a high-end athlete at his position, posting a 9.59 relative athletic score, which ranked third among all defensive tackle prospects coming out in the 2022 NFL Draft. Draft analyst Lance Zierlein highlighted that Wyatt possessed, “lateral quickness in beating zone blocks and in sliding across the front in a game-based pass rush.” Wyatt’s traits also translated to results. He was the only SEC interior defensive lineman to have an 80-plus grade by Pro Football Focus as both a pass rusher and run defender.
Along with his college pedigree, part of the reason Wyatt is so intriguing for 2023 is his performance in limited playing time in 2022. Wyatt was fifth in Green Bay’s interior defensive line rotation last year in snap count but posted the highest overall performance grade.
When you put on the highlight reel from 2022, Wyatt showed impressive flashes of the lateral quickness he had in college. Quarterbacks on the move don’t often leave him behind in the dust, and he shows significant motor overall. Additionally, he flashed an improved hand-fighting ability to shed offensive linemen and win reps, leading to a number of tackles for loss in defending the run. The biggest thing for Wyatt is to show his flashes consistently. That comes down to opportunity and not repeating mistakes.
Expectations for 2023
Wyatt’s coaches and teammates have high expectations for him. Kenny Clark has set a high bar with his own performance and noted Wyatt (and T.J. Slaton) will “have to take huge steps.” Packers defensive line coach and running game coordinator Jerry Montgomery also highlighted big expectations, saying, “Year 1 to Year 2, I expect a massive jump from (Wyatt). He knows the defense much better and it allows him to play free and fast instead of worrying about where you go.” It’s a classic situation for a young player and a similar one that Rashan Gary went through. Gary went from playing 378 snaps to 681 snaps from Year 1 to Year 2. Green Bay is likely expecting a similar jump from Wyatt this year.
So what could the impact of Wyatt look like? The obvious area is providing a more stout defensive front versus the run, leading to more advantageous third-down situations. In 2022, the Packers defense allowed 11.4 third downs per game, the fewest in the NFL. The Packers defense too often got beat on first and second down. However, when they got to third down, they allowed teams to convert 37% of the time which was seventh-best in the NFL. This comes down to not performing well in situational football in 2022.
Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry highlighted a renewed focus on situational football when asked where he’s seeking improvement in 2023:
Situational football. Usually, NFL football games, they’re close games. There’s very few blowouts in this league, and most of the time, those games come down to four, five, or maybe six or seven plays. And if the result of those handful of plays are different, that’s the difference between winning and losing a football game. A lot of times, those go into situational football. It goes into third down, it goes into the red zone, it goes into two-minute.
For the Packers to get into those key four, five, or six situations per game, they’ll have to stop the run consistently. A big part of that success will be put on Wyatt’s shoulders in 2023.
