It’s no secret that expectations for this year’s Green Bay Packers are lower than they’ve been in decades. After a pair of legendary signal-callers led the team to NFC North dominance and a Super Bowl ring apiece, the Packers are now handing the keys to their storied franchise to Jordan Love. What we’ve been treated to in the past has us dreaming big. What we’ve seen statistically around the league is reason for doubt. And, quite honestly, what we’ve seen on the field thus far has made it incredibly difficult to take a firm stance on how this opportunity will play out.
One thing’s for certain: The NFL is expecting Green Bay to be at the forefront of the narrative of the 2023 season, for better or worse. Despite trading away Aaron Rodgers, who’s become just about as talked about as he is talented in the last couple of years, the Packers are scheduled for their standard five primetime games, plus a Thanksgiving showdown in Detroit. While having one of the largest and most passionate fanbases in sports likely has something to do with the way things shook out, the league is well-aware that the nation is eager to witness the dawn of the Love era – I guess that’s what three years of drum rolling gets you.
A share of the spotlight equal to that of NFC heavyweights like the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers — and Rodgers’ New York Jets — was the second thing that caught my attention. The first was the fact that nearly every game looks winnable, despite some of the holes, the youth, and the uncertainty on the roster.
Let’s start with the fact that the Packers have retained most of their high-end talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. It’s been talked about for a little while now, and Joe Barry is still around, but the upside for that group to put on a Week 17 vs. Minnesota-esque performance — but throughout an entire season — remains a possibility.
On offense, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins return to anchor a solid front. Expect Matt LaFleur to take advantage of his elite backfield duo and run the smash-mouth offense he’s always haphazardly tried to implement. Last year, Rodgers’ fingerprints were all over the gameplans, and he was pushing to pass heavily. By no means is this to say that things will be easier without him, just that adopting a more physical offensive identity could be an exciting new wrinkle, particularly given the proportion of the offensive talent that lines up between the hashes.
LaFleur will undoubtedly look to make things as smooth as possible for Love. Adding tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft on Day 2 of the draft is an exciting direction that should fuel the run game, give Love a variety of outlet options, and make it easy for him to use the middle of the field. And when they’re ready to break the game open, Christian Watson will be streaking down the sideline. Ideally, a veteran comes in at some point to distribute the load a bit better, but hopes are high for Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed.
The season kicks off with the Bears, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Lions. That is Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, and Jared Goff. While it’s going to take some time to get the plane in the air, I’d be pretty surprised if there aren’t 2-3 wins there. In Week 5, the Packers head to Vegas to visit their old friend Davante Adams on Monday Night Football. That sounds like an uphill climb on paper. But we can’t forget that Jimmy Garoppolo was the kid who got an A on the group project without doing any of the work in San Francisco. That game is followed by an early bye, and then the Denver Broncos, Minnesota, the Los Angles Rams, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I can’t tell you which of those will be wins, but all of them can be had.
The tough stretch lasts three weeks: the Los Angeles Chargers at home, Lions on Thanksgiving, then 10 days to prepare for the Chiefs at home. Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes are going to be heavy favorites. Lambeau is a tough place to play, and I can easily see a game getting stolen, but to be safe we’ll chalk those two up as losses. The season wraps up with Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bryce Young (?), and then more Kirk Cousins and Justin Fields. After 17 games, the Packers will have completely avoided the top-three favorites in the NFC and will play most of their games against the bottom half of the league.
Oddsmakers are currently projecting 7.5 wins for the Packers, with a little bit of juice on the under. I am expecting a team with a hard-nosed running attack and a stingy defense to finish above .500 against a draw of mostly unimpressive opponents.
To cover this particular line, all they need is an 8-9 record. It won’t shake out this exact way, but let’s put things in perspective. My favorite eight games are the two against Chicago, Desmond Ridder’s Falcons, Derek Carr’s Saints, the train-wreck Broncos and Rams, and the rebuilding Bucs and Panthers. Jordan Love can win those and get swept by Kirko and Goff, lose to Pickett, Garoppolo, and the New York Giants, and drop a pair at Lambeau Field to tough AFC opponents — and still make you money. As long as Aaron Jones, Bakhtiari and Jenkins, Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, and the other 10 former first-rounders on that unit are around, the Packers are still a real football team. At the very least, it’s worth a look.
