Green Bay Packers

How Bad Does A Packers Coach Have To Be To Get Fired?

Photo Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK

Akin to the age-old riddle of whether or not the chicken comes before the egg, many Green Bay Packers fans may be wondering how much it actually takes to get a coach or coordinator fired. This scrutiny comes after a wildly disappointing season that saw the team underperform on every side of the ball except for special teams. All season long, most fingers were pointed at defensive coordinator Joe Barry, but few staff members were safe from judgment.

Everybody knows about “The Packer Way.” It refers to the organization’s patience with players and coaches as it pertains to their opportunities to “figure it out.” They give draftees and new hires plenty of time to show their value to the organization. Often they trust personnel to a fault. Perhaps the most recent and obvious flubbing of this philosophy was how Green Bay kept giving Amari Rodgers opportunities he did not deserve. It also looks like Barry is being given more leash than he has earned.

Two questions sprout from this: How bad does Barry have to do to be actually let go? And what does keeping him around after last season say about Green Bay’s priorities? In regards to the first question, the answer is: pretty bad.

Green Bay’s last three defensive coordinators before Barry’s arrival were Mike Pettine (2018-20), Dom Capers (2009-17), and Bob Sanders (2006-08). Having only four coordinators over 15 years could be construed as a sign of a healthy organization. It could also indicate that it is too sedentary in its ways to make effective changes at opportune times. The Packers let Sanders go after the defense regressed from a top-10 unit in points-against (sixth overall) in 2007 to the 22nd-ranked scoring defense in 2008. Sanders had two seasons of his defense ranking outside of the top 20, which made Green Bay’s decision easy.

Capers is another story. He orchestrated a brilliant defensive scheme that played a large role in Green Bay winning the 2010 Super Bowl over the Pittsburgh Steelers. His first two seasons on the job in 2009 and 2010 saw the Packers boast the seventh- and second-overall scoring defenses, respectively, per Pro Football Reference. That Super Bowl victory seemed to buy Capers a ton of leash, as none of his ensuing units would finish inside the top 10. Losing Nick Collins hurt, sure, but some truly embarrassing playoff losses under Capers’ tenure can be entirely tied to scheme (Colin Kaepernick, anyone?). The Packers let Capers go after two seasons where they finished 21st and 26th in scoring defense.

Pettine’s tenure can be remembered by a similar tune of playoff disappointment. His first season on the job in 2018 was disappointing, though that was a rough year for the Packers overall. Pettine’s defenses in 2019 and 2020 had the ninth- and 13th-overall scoring defenses but once again failed to deliver in consecutive NFC Championship games. The loss to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 saw Green Bay out-possess the Bucs by nearly 10 minutes and have more total yards, but the team still came up short. A year later, the Packers were thoroughly outclassed by the San Francisco 49ers as they allowed 285 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground that put the game out of reach early. These performances were untenable at best, and they did not renew Pettine’s contract.

Enter Barry. His track record speaks for itself. His previous two stops as defensive coordinator were two-year stints with the Detroit Lions and the Washington Commanders. Detroit finished dead last in yards against both of those years (2007-08), while Washington ranked 28th each time (2015-16). As Barry approaches his first-ever third year being a defensive coordinator, his new defenses have been better than his past units but have still regressed over time. The 13th-overall scoring and ninth overall in yards against squad from 2021 saw those ranks dip to 17th and 12th, respectively, in 2022.

It was clear during the season that many players were being misused, and the defense put together some solid showings towards the end of the year when Barry finally adjusted his game plans to suit his personnel better. Injuries aside, though, this unit has been trending downwards for the last two seasons, and with many key players projected to return, it is hard to see a clear path toward improvement in Year 3.

Therefore, the magic numbers appear to be three and 20. Sanders and Pettine did not last longer than three years with the team after their defenses failed to perform. Capers lasted longer, but his and Sanders’ defenses ranked outside the top 20 in their last years on the job. Barry’s defenses have not yet fallen outside of the top 20, nor has the Packers given him the three-year leash they gave other coordinators the last decade-plus. It is noteworthy that offensive coordinators Nathaniel Hackett (2019-21), Edgar Bennett (2015-17), and Tom Clements (2012-14) were also given three-year runs with the team before they moved on for various reasons. Green Bay’s hiring process likely includes a vision for the future that, patient of an organization as it is, would prefer to see play out before making any rash decisions.

Heading into next season, the criteria for Barry’s dismissal will either involve a defense ranking outside of that top 20 or a catastrophic collapse in the playoffs like Pettine. Barry has not had much of an opportunity to showcase what his playoff defenses look like (the lone appearance and loss in 2021 could be attributed to a complete offensive collapse). Still, it could be a while before the Packers are back in the playoffs in the first place. A looming regime change at QB and the Detroit Lions’ surge within the division will make for some tough sledding in Green Bay these next few years. If his defenses somehow get any worse than they have been, Barry will not be back for 2024.

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