After starting February more than $16 million in the red, Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball have pulled enough strings to land the Green Bay Packers more than $17 million below the 2023 salary cap. They’ve restructured Jaire Alexander, Aaron Jones, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark‘s contracts, pushing money anywhere from 2024 to 2027.
In clearing out a significant chunk of space, the Packers will have the ability to make at least a couple of moves. Additional restructures are in the works, which should further increase that level of flexibility. The painful contract Aaron Rodgers is now under is cost of deferring payouts for these past couple of seasons. Whether he’s back or not, though, Green Bay is ostensibly prepping for another serious run.
In four seasons at the helm, Gutekunst has slightly fractured Green Bay’s near-exclusive draft-and-develop approach to personnel, bringing in guys like Adrian Amos, Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, and Jimmy Graham on splashy free-agent deals. Getting Rodgers or Jordan Love some weapons has to be at the top of the priority list. But in a weak free-agent class, I’d imagine we are more likely to see them spend on defense and address offense through the draft.
The trio of needs that stands out most significantly is wide receiver, tight end, and safety. Everyone and their mother was pounding the table for a more comprehensive effort to replace Davante Adams. However, only last year’s rookies Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Samori Toure are under contract heading into 2023. Unfortunately, the best wideout on the market is Jakobi Meyers, and not too far behind is Allen Lazard, Green Bay’s own free agent.
Meyers is a skilled receiver with the ability to contribute heavily in a core with Watson. However, the market at that position is booming to the point where it wouldn’t be economical for a team that had to do numerous restructures to scrape together the money. I could envision the Packers bringing in their annual veteran receiver, perhaps D.J. Chark or Marvin Jones. But I expect they’ll once again wait until the draft to go bigger, where a deep class with a less-defined top tier awaits. It’s an ideal feature for a team averse to first-round receivers.
On the tight end front, Evan Engram, who is barely a tight end, is likely to return to Jacksonville, and there aren’t a ton of options beyond that. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer makes a lot of sense at 15. Utah’s Dalton Kincaid, who boasts greater athleticism, is also a good bet. It’s a strong rookie class of tight ends for a team that is likely going to need one come April.
Safety is where things get most interesting. Significantly, it’s the position most likely to be addressed with a big name on the open market. In a class that is weak overall, Jessie Bates III, Jordan Poyer, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson headline a star-studded group of safeties on expiring contracts. The Packers went into 2022 with massive expectations for their defense, which contained years of investments in the form of draft capital and big contracts. However, poor play on the back end from Darnell Savage, who Green Bay benched midseason, and Amos, who’s seen his PFF grade plummet from 89.4 to 53.4, has made it incredibly urgent to bring in a guy who can help Joe Barry’s unit hold up their end.
It’s within the realm of possibility that the front office determines that Amos is indeed that guy, which would be more cap-friendly than a Bates or Poyer megadeal, but they’d have to find reason to believe he’s not set to continue on the same path of precipitous decline that befell Ha Ha Clinton-Dix before him.
Poyer, who’s had success in Buffalo, makes sense as a serious option. However, he’s 31 years old, which may scare a Green Bay braintrust that has struggled with finding long-term stability at the position. Bates III, the 26-year-old star who played on the franchise tag last year with the Cincinnati Bengals, has the range and ball skills to thrive in a secondary that is already rich with Alexander and Eric Stokes. His ability to play single-high could open up more opportunities for the Packers to lean on their corners without sacrificing the big plays that killed them in 2022. Teams with more to spend like the Atlanta Falcons and the incumbent Bengals have been rumored to be in pursuit. Still, this is a signing that would make a lot of sense if Green Bay decides to make a splash.
There is quite a bit ahead for the Packers, from the creation of more cap space to the resolution of this franchise-encompassing quarterback drama. Based on the supply and demand right now, addressing offensive skill needs through the draft, and safety and front-seven depth through free agency seems to make the most sense for a team hoping to reclaim their status as perennial division-winners. For now, they are once again Schrödinger’s Super Bowl contender. But if they pull the right levers with their newly-created cash flow, they could be dangerous no matter who’s under center.
