There are three possible outcomes for the Aaron Rodgers saga, but journalists and people on social media only talk about two of them: the quarterback remaining with the Green Bay Packers or playing somewhere else in 2023. Retirement is still an option, too, but the general perception is that’s not as realistic. And that feels right because there are two strong factors that will motivate the veteran quarterback to keep playing after coming back from his darkness retreat.
The first and most important one is that Rodgers is still a great quarterback. Even though he had a down year in 2022, his individual performance was not the only reason why he was inconsistent. Yes, he played worse than he did in the two seasons prior. However, maintaining an MVP-level performance demands a perfect situation, and what Rodgers faced in 2022 was far from perfect.
He saw the Packers trade his best offensive weapon, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders. Sammy Watkins was Green Bay’s only veteran offensive addition, and he barely had 200 receiving yards before they released him during the season. Rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs ended up with solid roles, but they were still rookie receivers, and the transition from college to the NFL is never easy.
The second factor is money. As Vic Ketchman would say – and Packers fans might remember well – when they say it’s not about the money, that’s exactly when it’s all about the money. Rodgers has earned a lot of money throughout his NFL career, but even for his parameters, there is a significant amount of cash on the table for him. Rodgers has a $58.3 million roster bonus, due between the start of the new league year, on March 15, and Week 1 in September. It’s guaranteed, but only if he plays.
For the Packers, too, retirement is a terrible scenario. While there would be financial benefits to it in the future, freeing up $ 40.7 million of cap space in 2024 and giving the front office more flexibility to add pieces around Jordan Love, the Packers would still have to handle $ 40.3 million in dead money this year — around $ 9 million more than the cap hit if he plays. Moreover, there would be no draft pick compensation. That means the Packers would have lost 75% of Love’s rookie and inexpensive contract, and there would be no extra capital to surround him with cheap talent.
Can he still be great?
“Do I still think I can play? Of course,” Rodgers said during an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. “Can I play at a high level? Yeah. The highest. I think I can win MVP again in the right situation.”
“Is that Green Bay or is that somewhere else? I’m not sure. But I don’t think you should shut down any opportunity. Like I said during the season, it’s got to be both sides actually wanting to work together moving forward. I think there’s more conversations to be had.”
That’s not how a quarterback mulling retirement would talk. Rodgers might be an exception because he’s not a usual guy, but it’s almost unprecedented to see a quarterback walk away when he can still play at a high level. Generally, age and decline kick players out of the NFL against their will. If Rodgers still feels his body and his mind allow him to play at a high level, there is a good chance he’ll find out if that’s true on the field.
It seems just a matter of time before he announces he will be back.
“We [Rodgers and the Packers front office] had all the conversations we wanted to have about football for now,” the quarterback said. “They’re not pressing for any type of specific answer, and I’m not mentally or emotionally at that point to give one. … It’s get away from it mentally and emotionally, and physically as your body starts to come back after a few weeks of TLC then I think you’re in a better frame of mind to contemplate your future.”
Does money talk?
Rodgers will receive his $ 58.3 million roster bonus if he stays in Green Bay, but also if he is traded. Whichever team has his rights will owe him that amount. However, if he decides to retire, the bonus cancels out.
“I think you have a feeling where you’re leaning, but there’s a lot of things that come into play,” Rodgers mentioned. “Just on my side it’s the physical part, it’s the emotional part, it’s the spiritual part, it’s the ability to go back out there and give it 100%. It’s also the situation and where the team is at and the focus moving forward short-term and long-term. And then it just comes down to the intuition of what it feels like in your body and what it feels like in your mind.”
Rodgers has made $305.6 million throughout his career. But wouldn’t you work one more year if you had the opportunity to earn 20% of what you have made in the previous 18 years combined? It looks like a great deal for a relatively short period, doesn’t it?
Aaron Rodgers is unpredictable, and his next steps are tough to anticipate. But there are too many reasons for him to keep playing, between money and what he still wants to accomplish as a football player. And that’s why the main question is still where he will play, and not if, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks.
