As everyone expected, Jordan Love outplayed the reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football in an iconic showdown.
What, you didn’t see that one coming?
While Love and the young offense had a dominant performance against one of the league’s better defenses, the Green Bay Packers’ oft-maligned defense deserves a ton of credit for limiting Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense has struggled thanks to poor play from receivers, but neutralizing the league’s best quarterback is never easy. Joe Barry’s crew played one hell of a game on Sunday.
The Packers defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since Week 4, an eight-game streak and their longest record since 2010 (nine weeks). In Green Bay’s final four games, they won’t face any quarterback nearly as venerated as Mahomes. That means that Green Bay is probably making the playoffs as long as the defense continues along this path. And that likely means Barry, who a large percentage of Packer Nation has long written off, is probably your defensive coordinator in 2024.
Wait, put down those torches and pitchforks. This isn’t what I wanted, either. But if you look at the 2023 season in a vacuum, it’s hard to imagine Matt LaFleur making a change, barring catastrophe.
Most recently, Barry’s group limited Mahomes and the traditionally dynamic Chiefs offense to 19 points. Only the Denver Broncos (twice), Philadelphia Eagles, and Jacksonville Jaguars have also kept Andy Reid‘s offense under 20 points this season. Green Bay’s pass rush sacked the elusive Mahomes three times, only the second time he’s been sacked three times in a game this season. The defense got a crucial stop late in the fourth quarter thanks to a Keisean Nixon turnover.
The previous week against the Detroit Lions, the pass rush also generated three sacks, a zillion pressures, and three turnovers, once again limiting one of the league’s better offenses.
Looking back to the ancient days before the Packers’ offense started clicking (October), the defense generally did the job it was meant to do — limit opponents to give the struggling offense a chance. Only twice this season has Barry’s group given up 25 or more points. That makes life manageable for most offenses, though not Green Bay’s at the time.
Following the Chiefs game, the Packers have the ninth-fewest points scored against them. And Barry has done it with a constantly shuffling secondary, thanks to injuries.
That’s not bad on paper. Green Bay might be 6-6, but many of those losses fall more on the offense, and now Green Bay has a real chance to finish 10-6.
So why do many, like myself, still want to say “Bye, bye, Barry?” Because the defense can be agonizing to actually watch, and the numbers disguise some hard truths.
In terms of the sexy numbers, Green Bay’s defense is lacking. Via ESPN, their 29 sacks are 19th in the league, and that’s after getting six in the past two games. For most of the season, the pass rush wasn’t getting home beyond Rashan Gary. Obviously, I love the improvement the past two weeks, but it’s not telling the entire story.
Green Bay’s 13 total takeaways are also among the league’s worst, in the bottom sixth of the league. Before Sunday’s victory, the Packers had the 18th-ranked defense by DVOA. While that number should go up this week, it’s still only around league average.
And, as always, looking closely at the run defense numbers will make anyone sad. Their 136.3 rushing yards per game are fourth-worst in the league. Their 1,635 total rushing yards allowed is third-worst. Running backs are getting their best games against Green Bay’s front, which will continue until the philosophy at the top changes.
Finally, Green Bay has faced an easy schedule and has gotten lucky at times. One of those two 25-plus point games was to Desmond Ridder, and the Packers also lost to teams Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson led. Their best performance, a 20-3 win in Week 9, was against a backup quarterback who immediately got fired.
They made Matt Canada look competent in Week 10.
And the victory over the Chargers in Week 11 could have easily gone the other way had any LA receiver known how to catch a ball.
From a fan’s point of view, watching the soft coverage, blown assignments, and giving up so many long plays is frustrating. Third-and-long feels like an automatic at times, including games where the defense gives up something like nine three-and-eights. The three-man rushes leading to competitions are painful. Philosophically, I just don’t like the scheme Barry runs, and I’ve seen other DCs run it more efficiently, at least. Barry seems like a good guy, and the players like him. I genuinely don’t like rooting for someone to lose their livelihood, but this defense is just so frustrating.
In a perfect world, Green Bay would thank Barry for his services and look for a more aggressive coach capable of squeezing more from their players.
LaFleur hasn’t made the best decisions with coordinators, and Barry hasn’t been egregiously bad enough for this to be the season to get the axe. Unless the New York Jets fire LaFleur’s BFF Robert Saleh, and he’s looking for a job, I just don’t see Barry going anywhere.
Wins against Tommy DeVito/Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, whoever the Minnesota Vikings might be starting, and Justin Fields can get Green Bay to the playoffs. Still, they also shouldn’t be resumé defining. Barry kept his job in 2023 by beating bad teams down the stretch in 2022. It won’t be surprising to see history repeat itself.
A lot can happen, but Packers fans should probably come to terms with the idea of Joe Barry back in Green and Gold for another year.
