The football world is filled with opinions. All year round you can find experts, analysts, talking heads, and fans throwing their every thought against the wall.
But generally speaking, if you want to decipher the most likely outcomes for any sports based scenario, Las Vegas is the place to turn. As the saying goes “the house always wins.”
It looks like the odds makers think the Green Bay Packers absolutely crushed the 2023 NFL draft. Early in the offseason, FanDuel had the NFC North odds as:
Lions +180
Vikings +300
Bears +350
Green Bay Packers +410
Post draft the Packers Lambeau Lept up to second.
Lions +140
Packers +330
Vikings +350
Bears +350
The massive shift speaks volumes about what Vegas thinks of Brian Gutekunst’s 13 pick performance in the draft.
The national media is slowly becoming bullish as well. As draft grades roll in and national perception of Jordan Love rises, there’s plenty of reasons to believe that the Packers could have a better year than many originally expected.
1. The Schedule
The Packers have the 9th softest schedule in the NFL in 2023.
Even with the AFC West this year, the two teams they face on the road in that division are the Raiders and Broncos, who, respectively, finished third and last.
The NFC north is completely changes. Yes, the Lions are better, but they are not a proven powerhouse. The Bears will be terrible again and the Vikings have lost so many important veterans there’s no telling who they’ll be.
Green Bay will also get the NFC South, the only division in the NFL where no team had a winning record or scored over 400 points.
The Buccaneers were 2022 division champions at 8-9 and just replaced Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield. The Panthers will likely be starting a rookie at quarterback. The Falcons will have Desmond Ridder, who threw 2 touchdowns in four starts, as their QB1. The Saints will be starting Derek Carr, who is coming off of a season where he tied his career high in INTs, threw the fewest completions in any season of his career, and had his lowest QB rating since his rookie season.
There is no reason that the Green and Gold can’t walk away from those matchups with at least a 3-1 record. If they get minimum 3 division wins, which is absolutely possible, they’re already at 6.
2. Jaire Alexander
Alexander is a beast. According to PFF, Alexander put up the fourth-best grade and ninth-most wins above replacement. In 2022, when receivers Alexander covered were targeted, quarterbacks had a 63.7 QB rating and a 59.8 completion percentage. He only allowed over 75 yards in a game once all year.
Many teams facing the Packers in 2023, including the Vikings, Lions, Rams, and Raiders, rely heavily on a number one receiver to succeed. Jaire can change those games. See Alexander’s performance on Justin Jefferson late last season.
3. AJ and AJ
Even if the Packers’ passing attack regresses in 2023(which it’s hard to imagine it would given how poorly it performed last season) Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be there. 6 of the Packers’ 17 games will be played against the NFC North – a division in which every team allowed over 2,000 rushing yards in 2022. Of the four worst rush defenses from 2022 in the NFL, two of them – the Bears and the Lions – play the Packers twice.
Jones and Dillon are arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. The two combined for nearly 2,500 all purpose yards. With the Aaron Rodgers dynamic finally out of the play calling, Matt Lafleur will likely be able to showcase his backs and offense the way he wants. Perhaps it fails. But perhaps we realize how much the duo was being held back.
4. The Chip on Jordan Love’s Shoulder
Ever since Jordan Love was drafted, the media narrative surrounding him has been “What were the Packers thinking?” Since then, Love has steadily improved in limited action for the Packers.
Love knows he’s the next man up. He’s out to prove that he’s still the first round talent that the Packers traded up to acquire merely three years ago. With consistent first team reps in practice, along with a much improved rapport with Watson and Doubs, there’s no doubt he can shine.
6. The Drama is done
No matter what Rodgers or anyone in the front office or on coaching staff tells you, things got ugly. They’ve been ugly for a while.
The sort of energy that Rogers frustration can bring to an environment can be toxic.
Undoubtably the Hall of Famer was loved by his teammates, but escaping the constant media circus will be excellent for this team.
