The (green and) gold standard of excellence in the NFC North has historically been the Green Bay Packers. Barring a couple of outlier seasons, Green Bay has dominated the division for the last couple decades under Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. The coaching consistency has allowed players to flourish during their tenure at Lambeau Field, and the league generally takes notice of that uptick in production.
Over the years, this has made outgoing Packers free agents hot commodities. Excluding the volatile Rodgers situation, former Green Bay players quickly land elsewhere when their contracts expire. One would think this would make it harder for the Packers to retain their players, but the potential to win a championship still looms large over many players’ decisions.
However, it is fair for players to pursue financial security wherever they can find it. Still, the propensity for that security to fall within the NFC North has become peculiar the last few years. A large number of former Green Bay players sign with the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Chicago Bears. It happens at such a high frequency that it at least warrants investigating why so many former Packers sign with rivals so close to home.
Diare Carragher crunched the numbers: 34% of Packers free agents that signed elsewhere in the last four years inked contracts within the division. Without looking at other teams, this seems to be quite high. It’s possible that teams like the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, two other prolonged dynasties, have experienced this same phenomenon. Maybe the Kansas City Chiefs will be next.
In the last two seasons, all of these (noteworthy) former Packers signed with division rivals immediately after exiting Green Bay:
- Dean Lowry (MIN)
- Robert Tonyan (CHI)
- Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI)
- Lucas Patrick (CHI)
- Jamaal Williams (DET)
- Za’Darius Smith (MIN)
- Chandon Sullivan (MIN)
That is just a small sample from recent memory. It is entirely possible that these players were simply impressed by the financial offers from rivals. Maybe the added bonus of two revenge games per season is what put the deals over the top. Furthermore, the teams were likely optimistic that some of Green Bay’s talent would arrive as dormant energy within the free agents and rub off on the rest of the roster. Below is a reenactment of some of the most recent free-agent periods, with Squidward playing the role of the Packers and Spongebob acting as the rest of the teams in the NFC North:
What’s even more damning is that these Benedictine players have found success in recent years. The Vikings won the division in commanding fashion this season, while ZD played a large role in embarrassing Rodgers and Co. Week 1. To add insult to injury, Green Bay’s season was ultimately ended at the hands of Jamaal Williams and the Lions. Recency bias is a predominant motivator in the NFL, so it may be entirely plausible that the Packers will continue to lose free agents to division rivals in the future.
To this point, this formula has worked out for Green Bay more often than not. The Packers have seen many players fall off league-wide when they leave the team for allegedly greener pastures. Dropoffs from many notable receivers come to mind (Greg Jennings, anyone?), and Green Bay has found ways to keep winning games despite the losses of these household names. Even beyond the receivers that Rodgers has elevated during his tenure, players like Billy Turner (Denver Broncos) and Lane Taylor (Houston Texans) have had a hard time finding team success, while their offensive line replacements have been more than solid.
However, if Green Bay continues its losing ways from last season, their castoffs may not be seen in such a favorable light. Bit-rate players on a bad team aren’t exactly jumping off the shelves at the free-agent booth. Wins mask a slew of flaws from the top down, and if the wins stop coming, then then that gold standard may lose its shine. Problems are brewing once Packers players no longer become desirable.
The trend is frustrating to those who build fandoms for these hometown guys, but this inter-divisional shuffling is indicative of team success and dominance on Green Bay’s end. Professional sports are ultimately in the business of copying models of success. Considering the Packers have been a bold example of regular-season success the last two decades, it is no mystery that those closest to home will want to obtain some of those pieces to the puzzle. Everybody is inching closer to that coveted championship, and there is no better way to get there than to obtain pieces from a team that brushes with the Super Bowl more often than not.
