It’s hard to characterize this season for the Green Bay Packers. But in a word, it would be interesting. It would probably be competing in a rebuild if it were a phrase. Not contending, but competing. The sentiment around the team and its new franchise quarterback started exceptionally high with a Week 1 thrashing of the rival Chicago Bears, who are having a much more difficult time competing amidst their rebuild. A 2-5 record and some of the terrible losses that contributed to it had almost everyone declaring this a lost season and turning their attention to the draft order. Jordan Love and the offense then started to get things rolling, and the Packers toppled America’s two favorite contenders on national TV.
I wish I could say, “And that’s where we stand now.” But it wouldn’t be the 2023 Packers if Love didn’t follow up outperforming Patrick Mahomes to Tommy DeVito outperforming him. DeVito is a meme of a quarterback the New York Giants started so they could rise to the top of the 2024 draft. But Green Bay’s offense didn’t show up. Not to the extent they had in the previous two weeks, at least. Christian Watson‘s 53-yard catch from the first play of scrimmage served as the opening act of Green Bay’s breakout in Detroit. Watson missed last week’s game after his third hamstring pull of the year. The Packers have listed him as questionable on Sunday, which means the Packers must find a way to compensate for his absence or watch Baker Mayfield walk out of Lambeau with a crucial win.
Watson stacked 12 catches for 135 yards and three scores against Kansas City and Detroit. It was pretty much the first we’d seen of his dynamism since last year, and it elevated the offense to a new level. Outsourcing his production means getting the ball to the other spark plugs in the unit, and that would be rookie receiver Jayden Reed and veteran running back Aaron Jones.
We’ve seen Green Bay use the electric Reed in various ways this season. On Monday, he got loose on a couple of end-arounds, which led to LaFleur calling what wound up being an obnoxious number of them. Reed has also excelled as a deep threat, as evidenced by his average depth-of-target (ADoT) of 10 yards, even though half of his receptions are shovel passes behind the line. He has found the end zone on slants, deep posts, and handoffs.
However, he will be most useful in a derivative of Watson’s field-stretching role. Why? There is optimism that Jones will finally make his return. He will provide the big play ability out of the backfield that LaFleur has been trying to replicate with the combination of Reed and A.J. Dillon. Having Jones back on the field will unlock a slew of new packages. Crucially, it will also allow Reed to be the target downfield and over the middle off the hard play-actions.
The Packers have listed Dillon as questionable with a broken thumb. It sounds like an awfully tough injury to play through. But he logged a limited practice on Thursday, suggesting he could be on the field Sunday. Dillon has drawn the ire of fans and media throughout the season for his uninspiring yards per carry. He also occasionally looks sluggish out in space, but his role down the stretch is crucial.
Dillon gets a healthy amount of press for his enormous quads, and it’s that insane build that makes him the ultimate December back. With the cold weather and the possibility of snow, he should see an uptick in productivity, opening up more possibilities for the end-around game, play-actions, and the Pony personnel package with Jones. Should Dillon sit, a combination of Patrick Taylor and the newly-signed Kenyan Drake will be in the mix since Jones’ workload will be limited.
It’s hard to replace a 6’5” dude who runs like a deer. But getting the team’s best skill player back will be a big boost and allow Jayden Reed to attack the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ weak secondary vertically. It’s a great matchup for Love and Green Bay’s wideouts. Still, they will potentially be without exciting rookie Dontayvion Wicks, along with Watson. Insiders fear Wicks suffered a high-ankle sprain at MetLife, but he has logged two limited practices and is listed as questionable. The next men up there are Malik Heath and Samori Toure. Given what they’ve shown in extremely limited reps, fans won’t be too mad at that.
Should Green Bay win, their playoff chances increase to 71%, according to ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall precipitously to 29%. ESPN Analytics isn’t always reliable, but the numbers capture the nature of this competitive NFC wild-card race. The schedule is easy down the stretch, but the conference is full of other mid-tier teams clawing for the final two spots. The defense and special teams units have proven to be unreliable. If the Packers are going to get themselves into the playoffs, the offense will have to get them there. That starts with looking at Watson’s impact on the season’s turnaround and figuring out how to get similar results with the personnel available.
