Last week, it was the Minnesota Vikings playing a game with their season on the brink. This week, it’s the Green Bay Packers’ turn. However, they entered this season with far lower expectations and a lot more questions than Minnesota.
The latest incarnation of the Border Battle will have a different feel to it, with Aaron Rodgers’ oversized presence gone and likely a lot more purple in the stands than we’re accustomed to seeing at Lambeau Field.
The Vikings saved their season on Monday night with an impressive performance on both sides of the ball against the San Francisco 49ers. They come into Border Battle No. 124 with momentum, confidence, and good health. The Packers enter more questions than answers, an offense stuck in neutral, an inconsistent young QB, and a banged-up defense. All have contributed to a three-game losing streak that threatens to dagger their season before the weather turns.
So naturally, I’m picking the Packers to win.
Let’s start with what’s working against Green Bay. They’ll likely be without Jaire Alexander once again; that back injury has reached long-term status. He would certainly be missed against emerging rookie WR Jordan Addison, who stepped up big time in Justin Jefferson’s absence Monday night with a number of game-changing plays. And there’s no Eric Stokes waiting in the wings. His long-awaited return from injury lasted only four special team plays. A hamstring injury has him back on IR.
On top of that, the Pack’s thinnest position spot, safety, got even thinner when they placed Darnell Savage on IR this week. That means that Simone Biles’ husband, Jonathan Owens, will step into a starting role. He’s looked less than stellar when he’s been on the field this season, whether on defense or special teams.
An effective pass rush will tremendously aid the banged-up secondary. But the Pack has not been very productive in that area the last few games, and we all know how Kirk Cousins feasts when he’s not under duress. Minnesota’s offensive line was brilliant on Monday night, keeping San Francisco’s ferocious front seven at bay. Rashan Gary needs to be a game-wrecker, and maybe Preston Smith can show enough for a team to offer the Pack a 2024 draft pick to snipe him at the trade deadline.
Green Bay’s offense is also working against them. It has now gone six weeks since scoring a touchdown in the first half. And here comes mad scientist Brian Flores, who blitzes at a rate not seen by any of the other 31 teams. It could cause mass confusion for the Pack’s under-performing offensive line, forcing Love to hurry his processing and potentially make some big mistakes.
Because, as usual, turnovers will likely be what determines who comes out on top. Much of Minnesota’s slow start can be attributed to untimely fumbles that put them on the wrong side of their weekly one-score games – something they never experienced in 2022. Turnovers have also been a primary theme for the Pack. Partially, it’s Love’s seven picks, but also the lack of takeaways by the defense. They’ve only had five so far through six games. That needs to change if they want to chalk some Ws.
So why do I like the Pack’s chances? It’s mostly the intangibles. Both teams should be plenty motivated since it’s a divisional game, a rivalry game. But the Vikings are coming off a season-defining win against arguably the league’s best team in prime time. Can they put that win behind them and come into this one focused and ready on the road off a short week?
Meanwhile, the Packers are the more desperate team, needing to snap a three-game losing streak. The Lions blew them out, but the other three losses have been a combined seven points, and they had leads in the fourth quarter in every one of them. They’re close; they’re just shooting themselves in the foot lately. For example, the holding penalty at the end of last week’s game that put them behind the chains and cost them a realistic chance at a game-winning field goal.
Aaron Jones is off the injury report and says he feels the best he’s felt since Week 1. If he’s up to handling the ball at least 15 times, the Pack’s offense could finally resemble a functional NFL offense.
Love has actually been pretty good against blitzes this season. If he’s forced to get the ball out of his hands quickly, it might allow guys like Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks to do some work after the catch. They’ll also try a couple of deep shots to Christian Watson to keep the defense honest. After coming up lame at the end of last week’s game, it feels like a minor miracle that he’s not on the injury report this week. Luke Musgrave is on that list, though, and he’ll likely miss this game with an ankle injury suffered after Kareem Jackson’s vicious hit.
So let’s see if Matt LaFleur and his offense can finally get their act together. It’s not illegal to put points on the board in the first half. LaFleur needs to take off the kid gloves and give Love a chance to make plays right out of the gate. It would also be helpful if the young receiving corps could get a little more adept at route running and stop making mistakes that cause drives to stop in their tracks.
Logic tells us that the Vikings’ arrow is pointing up, and the Packers’ arrow is pointing down. But this is a week-to-week league, as you all know. You can’t explain why you can watch something one week and see something completely different the next. The first game at Lambeau in a month will feel like it should. The forecast calls for a chilly afternoon with temperatures in the upper 30s – that’s Packer weather.
A late turnover swings this one the Pack’s way.
Packers 23
Vikings 21
