As the Green Bay Packers embark on a rare seismic change in their franchise, fans, media, and the market are expecting a bumpy ride. Despite the easy schedule Jordan Love will face in his first year at the helm, oddsmakers have them pinned all the way back at +500 to retake the NFC North. They have also set the line for their win total at a lousy 7.5. However, for everything that is anxiety-inducing about going from a Hall of Famer to an unknown, the year of reckoning – during which the mountain of questions that have piled up over the back nine of the Rodgers era will be answered – should bring excitement and intrigue.
Obviously, Love and, by extension, Gutekunst are at the top of the list. But Matt LaFleur is not too far back. Along with Rodgers departs the mercurial quarterback’s need for creative control of the offense. For better or worse, that is going to tell us everything we need to know about LaFleur as he looks to assert himself as the right coach to lead the Packers into the future. He and Gutekunst have hand-built this fall’s offensive personnel, and their development over the next two or so seasons will likely determine his fate.
During an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show, NBC’s Mike Florio claimed that “LaFleur basically had to run his offense differently than he wanted to for four years now. He’s got a guy that he’ll just tell him, ‘You do what I want, and we’ll make it work.’” He went on to assert that LaFleur is underrated due to the success he had while balancing an uncharacteristically tumultuous period for the franchise.
Last season, Rodgers made no secret that he wanted to pass the ball more. As the losses piled up, so did the questions. He expressed a desire to “simplify the offense.” When prompted, LaFleur said he didn’t know what that meant. Rodgers also occasionally blew off gameplan meetings with his head coach, according to a report. And obviously, we’ve seen him audible time and again over the years. He likes to control the game, particularly down the stretch. Suffice it to say, we’re going to see an offense that operates quite differently than the one we’ve seen in the past four seasons.
The Packers’ offense will enter 2023 with the backfield as their primary strength. The day after they shockingly selected Love, despite having Rodgers, they took A.J. Dillon, despite having Aaron Jones. The perfect winter back, Dillon will return as the thunder to Jones’ lightning in a scheme that will be much more reliant on the ground game this time around. As for the pass-catchers, interestingly enough, they’re all rookies and sophomores. Gutekunst found his downfield burner last season in Christian Watson and proceeded to spend April’s draft on complements who can make life easier for Love near the line of scrimmage.
Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft were the highlight of the duo, both of whom Gutekunst characterized as “all-around” tight ends. In letting Robert Tonyan walk and fully re-upping the position on Day 2 of the draft, the Packers fortified their edge with above average blockers, find targets for the RPO flat routes LaFleur likes to run, and hopefully also use the middle of the field. By bringing in Jayden Reed out of Michigan State, Gutekunst found his complement to the budding duo of Watson and Romeo Doubs. Reed is a slot guy who can get involved between the chains but with downfield upside.
I expect LaFleur to call an offense that is in character with Green Bay winters – gritty, relentless, and aggressive on fourth down. They’re going to control the clock and eat up a lot of it on their best-executed drives. They’re going to force defenses to stack the box for Dillon and Jones, just to be put to sleep in time for Watson to scorch downfield. With a lot of new faces in play, it’s going to be exciting to see how LaFleur uses each of his offensive chess pieces. It’ll tell us what type of coach he is going to be long-term, whether they win or lose out of the gate. And ideally, it will help them reinforce their winning identity, which has started to fray amidst COVID controversies and repeated playoff losses.
It sucks to lose the guy who’s brought endless wins, memories, and pride to the city of Green Bay. However, the new era promises youth, answers, and an innovative new scheme. In a weak NFC that returns only the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers as significant threats, an NFC North title and/or a playoff berth feel firmly in reach.
Joe Barry’s defense has a very high ceiling, which they demonstrated in Week 17’s rematch against the Vikings. Although it would be easier to be optimistic if he weren’t leading it, that unit legitimately has enough talent to drag the Packers back to the playoffs if they can put it together.
As for Jordan Love, LaFleur will insert him into an offense which will rely heavily on the quick game and the ground. After three years of training, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be able to keep the train on the tracks. And after four years of uncertainty, it’ll be exciting to see Matt LaFleur roll out his vision for the post-Rodgers Packers.
