NFL fans have finally had a chance to see the rookie draft picks of their favorite teams take the field in offseason workouts, and there is a consensus emerging among Vegas oddsmakers as to who are the favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Green Bay Packers first-round draft pick Lukas Van Ness will find his name on just about every list you’ll come across. Looking at recent history, though, he would have to have some lofty numbers to bring home that hardware at the end of the season.
Depending on your betting platform of choice, you can find Van Ness with about the sixth- or seventh-best odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. He’s largely behind the defensive players drafted ahead of him in the first round of April’s draft, let by the No. 3-overall pick in Will Anderson from Alabama, who will have plenty of work to do for the Houston Texans. The next group is Jalen Carter (Philadelphia Eagles), Tyree Wilson (Las Vegas Raiders), and the cornerback duo of Devon Witherspoon (Seattle Seahawks) and Christian Gonzalez (New England Patriots).
Looking historically, what would it take for Van Ness to vault this group and emerge as the early best of the bunch?
For starters, the Packers drafted Van Ness in the right territory. Since 2013 and 2014, when Sheldon Richardson and Aaron Donald won coming out of the same No. 13 draft slot as Van Ness, only two players drafted later than that have won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Marcus Peters won the award in 2018 after the Kansas City Chiefs took him 18th overall, while Shaquille (then Darius) Leonard won in 2018 after being drafted No. 36 overall in the second round, then proceeding to lead the league with 163 tackles. Four of the last 10 awards have gone to players drafted in the top five: Sauce Gardner (fourth), Chase Young (second), Nick Bosa (second), and Joey Bosa (third).
Over the past 10 seasons, four edge rushers, three cornerbacks, two defensive tackles, and one linebacker have earned Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Some seasons the winner didn’t post eye-popping numbers but came from an underwhelming rookie group. Chase Young took home the honors after the 2020 season, having recorded 7.5 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 44 total tackles over 15 games. Nothing extraordinary, but still comfortably ahead of Jeremy Chinn and Patrick Queen in the voting. One year later, Micah Parsons was unanimously selected, and rightfully so, racking up 13 sacks to go alongside 20 tackles for loss and 30 quarterback hits, both of which landed him within the top five of the league.
Van Ness would need similar stats to the Brothers Bosa, the other edge rusher winners. Nick won in 2019 after nine sacks, 25 quarterback hits, and 16 tackles for loss; Joey won in 2016 with 10.5 sacks, 21 quarterback hits, and 17 tackles for loss. Looking at recent trends, it looks like if Van Ness wants to have a shot at winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, he’ll need to come in somewhere right around 10 sacks, with 20-plus quarterback hits and nearly as many tackles for loss. That’s a tall task for someone who may not have a sharply defined role in as many games as it would take to accumulate those stats.
The other kicker would be guys like Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson putting up big stats for a bad team, because awards such as this don’t seem to factor in to team success into the criteria.
Rashan Gary‘s health is the other major factor determining what level of statistics Van Ness can amass. His return date has been largely hush-hush within Lambeu Field. Gary told reporters, “I’ll be ready when I’m ready” in June. Van Ness will likely need to prove to defensive coordinator Joe Barry and the Packers coaching staff that his impact is too valuable to take snaps away from him, no matter when Gary returns. Whether it’s just a few games or the better part of the season, Van Ness will need to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves in Gary’s void.
With odds around +1,500, it feels right that Van Ness is in the mix for Defensive Rookie of the Year. However, he’ll need a few breaks to go his way. If he can find a groove early and earn more and more snaps, there’s a chance that he could approach the numbers that have been a threshold to win the award. If Van Ness is purely a raw, situational player who is still figuring things out, chances are that it will go to one of the players slotted above him. Either way, if Van Ness is even in the conversation for the award, it will have been a successful first year in Green Bay.
