If you’re a fan of fantasy football, you likely know that it’s about time to dust off the ADP charts and the draft board, as we are only six days from the first preseason action of 2023. It’s some of the most pure and authentic fun you can have, irrespective of age.
Something you may notice, depending on how serious you are, is that the market is all over the place this season. There have been some interesting shifts and reactions to recent trends which, in aggregate, have seen a lot of fantasy legends slide down the board in favor of new blood. Packers running back Aaron Jones is one such player, who just turned in his fourth-straight comfortable 1,000-plus-yard season. We know him well by now, and his usage will be exceptional, so why is it going to cost you so little to come away with him in your draft?
According to Fantasy Pros, Jones is currently being drafted around the 48th pick, sandwiched between his field-stretching teammate Christian Watson and Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. It’ll vary based on how many teams are in your league, but that’s pretty much the fifth round. Detroit Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who they shockingly selected 12th overall in the real NFL draft, is 11 slots ahead. Despite his consistent annual production, Jones is the 17th running back coming off the board.
There are three major factors at play in his slide. First, much like in the actual free-agent market, wide receivers have surged ahead of running backs in value at the top of drafts. Following year after year of an RB being the consensus top pick, that honor now belongs to Justin Jefferson. Not coincidentally, the only backs who are going in the top seven-ish, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, have a heavy receiving element to their games.
Last season, the managers that loaded up on E-ticket pass-catchers. Those who expended a top pick on Travis Kelce in particular reaped the rewards. Key in driving that result was the performance of mid- to late-round backs like Josh Jacobs (RB1), Jamaal Williams (RB7), Tony Pollard (RB8), Miles Sanders (RB10), Kenneth Walker (RB15), and Travis Etienne (RB16). The fantasy nerd community that lights up Twitter and TikTok with trends and data has made their choice. Much like the decision that GMs around the league have made, it’s at the expense of ball-carriers.
The second factor here is that the value of young players, rookies in particular, is at an all-time high. Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry have been fantasy football behemoths on an annual basis, yet Bijan Robinson, the stud rookie out of Texas, is being valued higher than both of them. Robinson finds himself on a lower-mid Atlanta Falcons team that is still in the early stages of developing a complementary passing attack, and returns sophomore standout Tyler Allgeier. He’s already being crowned a smash-hit. A historic 2022 that saw rookies Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Chris Olave, Drake London, Watson, Walker, and a handful of others surge onto the scene has given managers a “fool me once” mentality. As such, an aggressive overcorrection has guys like Robinson and Gibbs healthily above Aaron Jones.
The third component is that the market is simply low on the Packers’ offense. Win totals and NFC North title odds appear to be accounting for Jordan Love to be bad. While that may well be the case, I’d characterize Green Bay’s offense as more of a mystery than a liability at this juncture. To make things as easy as possible for the young quarterback, I expect Jones and A.J. Dillon to take on heavy usage rates this season, as well as heavy involvement in the short passing game.
At a minimum, they have each other as well as Watson to help create open space for one another. Jones ican pile up points no matter the game situation. He can catch screens and wheels in a pass-heavy deficit and he can put games away by moving the chains on the ground. If being on a bad team is such a liability, it should be universally priced in and affect guys like Robinson, Davante Adams, and Terry McLaurin too.
Overall, the way I see it, this year’s ADP is too abstract for my taste, and it veers too far from actual results we’ve seen in the past. Jones is in line for another season of 20-25 touches a game and heavy usage in the red zone. He’s talented in space, and he’s provided surplus value relative to his ADP every single year. We may not know what we’re going to get from Love, LaFleur, and the Packers offense as a whole, but we know what we’re going to get from Aaron Jones. As you begin your research and figure out where you stand relative to the general public, keep an eye on some of the forgotten stars.
Last season, I passed on Cooper Kupp in the middle of the first round. When the season opener came on and I watched that first drive, I was hit with the biggest wave of hindsight bias in the history of mankind. Of course it was gonna be just like this again, how could I have thought otherwise? I’m not saying that’s the right way to play, but I think there’s some value in staying grounded in an era that is so driven by things like training camp buzz, social media highlights, and raw physical talent above situation. The sharp players are hiding in plain sight, and Aaron Jones is without a doubt one of them.
