With Aaron Rodgers on his way out the door, the doubt campaign is building against the inhabitants of Lambeau Field.
FanDuel has the Packers’ over under at 7.5 wins and the odds are -104. BetMGM’s same odds for that win line are an even +100.
The media and Las Vegas are woefully undervaluing the Green Bay Packers’ potential. There’s good reasons to believe this team will surprise people. Let’s take a look at why the Green and Gold could soar above 7 wins.
1. The Schedule
The Packers have the 9th softest schedule in the NFL in 2023.
Even with the AFC West this year, the two teams they face on the road in that division are the Raiders and Broncos, who, respectively, finished third and last.
The NFC north is completely shook up. Yes, the Lions are better, but they are not a proven powerhouse. The Bears will be terrible again and the Vikings have lost so many important veterans there’s no telling who they’ll be. But it’s hard to imagine they’ll be improved.
They also get the NFC South, the only division in the NFL where no team had a winning record or scored over 400 points.
The Buccaneers were 2022 division champions at 8-9 and just replaced the GOAT with Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have undergone a complete rebuild, just shipped off their best receiver to Chic*go, and will likely be starting a rookie at quarterback. The Falcons will have Desmond Ridder, who threw 2 touchdowns in four starts, as their QB1. The Saints will be starting Derek Carr, who is coming off of a season where he tied his career high in INTs, threw the fewest completions in any season of his career, and had his lowest QB rating since his rookie season.
There is no reason that the Green and Gold can’t walk away from those matchups with at least a 3-1 record. If they get 3 division wins, which is absolutely possible, they’re already at 6.
2. Jaire Alexander
Alexander is unquestionably the star of the Packers defense.
According to PFF, Alexander put up the fourth-best grade and ninth-most wins above replacement. He is coming off of a career best 2022 season where he was tied for second among CBs in interceptions with 5. He was a second-team All-Pro and was named to the Pro Bowl for the second time.
In 2022, when receivers Alexander covered were targeted, quarterbacks had a 63.7 QB rating and a 59.8 completion percentage. He only allowed over 75 yards in a game once all year.
Many teams facing the Packers this year, including the Vikings, Lions, Rams, and Raiders, rely heavily on a number one receiver to succeed. That task of overly relying on those targets is much taller with Ja’Money locking them down. See Alexander’s performance on Justin Jefferson late last season.
3. AJ and AJ
Even if the Packers’ passing attack regresses in 2023(which it’s hard to imagine it would given how poorly it performed last season). Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon still very much exist. 6 of the Packers’ 17 games will be played against the NFC North – a division in which every team allowed over 2,000 rushing yards in 2022. Of the four worst rush defenses from 2022 in the NFL, two of them – the Bears and the Lions – play the Packers twice.
Jones and Dillon are arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. The two of them combined for nearly 2,500 all purpose yards. They are both capable of taking over a game at any moment and can be leaned on as Jordan Love comes into his own.
With the Aaron Rodgers dynamic finally out of the play calling, Matt Lafleur will likely be able to showcase his backs and offense the way he wants. Perhaps it fails. But perhaps we realize how much the duo was being held back.
4. The Chip on Jordan Love’s Shoulder
Ever since Jordan Love was drafted, the media narrative surrounding him has been “What were the Packers thinking?” Since then, Love has steadily improved in limited action for the Packers.
Love knows he’s the next man up. He’s out to prove that he’s still the first round talent that the Packers traded up to acquire merely three years ago. With consistent first team reps in practice, along with a much improved rapport with Watson and Doubs, there’s no doubt he can shine.
He’s already been working with his teammates, and much like Jones and Dillon. It will be interesting to see how he can perform if LaFleur is in complete control of the offense.
5. The Packers Are Not Done Improving Yet
With plenty of draft capital and a deep class at both wide receiver and tight end, there are countless opportunities for the Packers to build around Love. By letting Lazard and Tonyan walk and not signing replacements in their process, there’s no doubt that this was their plan all along. And oh by the way Green Bay is about to add some picks.
6. The Drama is done
No matter what Rodgers or anyone in the front office or on coaching staff tells you, things got ugly. They’ve been ugly for a while.
The sort of energy that Rogers frustration can bring to an environment can be toxic. Undoubtably the Hall of Famer was loved by his teammates, but escaping the constant media circus will no doubt be excellent for this team.
I’m not saying the Packers are going to go on a crazy run and win the Super Bowl. I’m not even saying they’ll make the playoffs. What I’m saying is 7.5 is absurd given the factors. Hammer the Packers.
