Many factors have contributed to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ franchise-record 20-5 start to the season. Rudy Gobert’s bounce-back year and Defensive Player of the Year level play. Karl-Anthony Towns’ 50/40/90 shooting and improved defense. And Anthony Edwards‘s star power and clutch scoring, of course. However, Minnesota’s third-quarter production has stood out the most. It has been a stunning development. The third quarter was Minnesota’s Achilles heel, even during many successful seasons in the past, such as the Tom Thibodeau era and last season’s team. Often, they didn’t adjust to their opponent out of the half or look like a completely different team than we saw in the first half.
Going from playing sound and effective basketball in the first half to allowing the opposition back into the game again in the third can make closing games incredibly difficult. In today’s high-octane offensive era, it’s difficult enough to hold leads. However, any team that can dominate a quarter, especially the third, and make it a strength can give themselves a momentum boost late in the game. That has been one of Minnesota’s strengths this year.
Through their first 25 games of the season, the Wolves rank first in defensive rating, allowing only 98.7 points per 100 possessions in third quarters. That’s a significant lead over the second-place Philadelphia 76ers, who hold a 106.3 defensive rating, giving the Wolves a 7.6 defensive rating advantage.
The Wolves have a 116.6 offensive rating in the third quarter, which ranks them 14th in the league. Minnesota’s 17.9 third-quarter net rating is second behind Philadelphia’s 20.8, and defensive dominance carries them to success.
However, the Wolves really take over when they play at Target Center. They have the league’s best defense when they play at home, with a 92.0 defensive rating in third quarters. That’s a significant lead over the second-ranked Houston Rockets, who have a 97.6 defensive rating, meaning the Wolves have a 5.7 advantage in defensive rating over the second-ranked team.
The Timberwolves have had offensive success, though. They rank ninth with a 120.2 offensive rating at home in the third quarter. Matched with their incredible defense, they have a net rating of 28.2! They have consistently dominated their opponents in this period in their first 12 games.
Compared to last season, when the Timberwolves had the same core of players, their success this season stands out meaningfully. The 2022-23 Wolves had a 113.4 offensive rating, 22nd in the league, and their 117.8 defensive rating ranked 25th. That means they had a minus-4.4 net rating in the third quarter, 23rd in the league.
The difference in their third-quarter net rating had a meaningful impact on their overall record. Minnesota was 13-12 through 25 games last year and started 20-5 this season. Minnesota’s improvements across the board have impacted their third-quarter success; dominating third quarters has built a winning foundation in the second half of games and has significantly impacted their overall record.
Minnesota’s ability to completely change the tide of a game was on full display on Monday. The Timberwolves had a slow start in Miami, full of turnovers and subpar defense. The Miami Heat shot 58.1% from the field and 38.5% from three, and Minnesota entered halftime down 66-54. But the Wolves quickly began to show flashes of resilience once the third quarter began. Their improved offense propelled the comeback, but it was mostly their lockdown defense.
Miami shot 7 of 19 from the field (36.8%) and 2 of 7 from three (28.6%) in the third quarter, scoring only 17 points. Minnesota created a lot of defensive pressure, forcing the Heat to take difficult shots throughout the quarter.
The Heat game provided the perfect blueprint for how dominating the crucial third quarter can help them build momentum. Minnesota won the quarter by six points despite their still lackluster offense, scoring 23 points. They held this momentum into the fourth quarter, where they showcased their league-leading defense into a road win.
Best of all? Minnesota’s third-quarter success has continued into the fourth quarter and crunch time. Their defensive domination has been constant.
The Wolves had some of their best defensive possessions as a team and big plays from Gobert to close the Miami game out:
Minnesota’s ability to be at its best in the third quarter and adjust after poor starts and performances will keep Minnesota’s scorching hot start alive. Given how quickly the Wolves can shut down the opposition with their defense, KAT and Ant will eventually come alive and give Minnesota a chance in every game with their offensive firepower.
When the Wolves made the Gobert trade, they expected to adapt to more of a defensive identity. But the sheer number of positives it has brought to the team, such as the dominance of specific quarters of the game, gives them a massive advantage to continue playing their best ball.
